Pundits not ready to count Corzine out

By Matt Friedman | July 14th, 2009 - 4:37pm

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To get a true picture of where the New Jersey gubernatorial race stands right now, analysts and pollsters say you need to look past the horse race poll numbers and focus instead on some of the recent suveys' underlying questions.

While the head-to-head match ups demonstrate a clear trend of Republican Christopher Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, they're malleable this early in the campaign, and fluctuations in that number- whether swings or incremental changes - are to be expected. Voters, for the most part, do not start paying attention until September at the earliest.

"That's why the campaigns are paying attention to all the stuff underneath that: the favorability rating, the issue ratings," said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, whose organization, along with Gannett New Jersey, is releasing its own poll on Thursday.

What's clear is that Governor Corzine faces enormous political problems, and that the public is clearly in an anti-incumbent mood. But there is still time - especially given Corzine's huge monetary advantage - to close the gap with Christie.

In the Quinnipiac University poll released today, Murray said the most important number is the 40% of voters who don't know enough about Christie to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. Although Christie's favorables remains net positive, there's plenty of room for his unfavorables to increase.

"That 40% who don't know Chris Christie hanging out there in this poll, that's got to leave his campaign worried," he said.

That number, Murray said, will move before the horse race gap legitimately changes.

Murray took issue with the poll's question about whether it was fair for Corzine to criticize Christie as being linked to former President Bush, since Corzine has yet to put any ads pointing to the connection - even if he has mentioned it in a couple statements.

Although the 40% does give Christie reason to worry, it also shows an electorate ready to vote for anyone but Corzine - even if they barely know anything about his opponent.

"They're saying they're going to vote for him but don't know enough about him," said Ingrid Reed, director of the Eagleton Institute's New Jersey Project. "It really sounds like anybody but Corzine."

Montclair State University political science professor Brigid Harrison said that she puts "absolutely no stock" in the horse race numbers in terms of predicting the race's outcome.

"Most people are thinking about vacations and the beach, so even if they have an opinion it doesn't necessarily reflect for whom they're going to vote," she said. "The other thing is that most of the polls at this point don't have very good composites of their likely voters."

The number that really jumps out at Harrison is the 8% garnered by independent Christopher Daggett, a former state Commissioner of Environmental Protection and Environmental Protection Agency regional administrator.

"That really exceeds expectation, and those are spoiler numbers," she said.

Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy has watched poll after poll of bad news for Corzine, but has continued to classify the race "Leans Democratic" in her publication, largely because of the size of Corzine's pocketbook. New developments may cause her to change the rating next week -- or not.

"I struggle with this race every day. I still have it in ‘lean,' because I'm sort of under the belief that Corzine's just going to throw so much money at it that there's just not a whole lot that Christie is going to be able to do. On the other hand, Christie has probably earned that toss-up rating," she said.

A lot of politicos around the country will notice if that rating is changed, since it's one of only two gubernatorial races this year. Although Duffy said that the race - like almost all gubernatorial races - will be decided on statewide issues, observers will read national political implications into it. And there may be some validity to that, since it's one of President Barack Obama's first tests of how much he can help candidates from his own party.

"We've seen in the past, every four years, that a lot is read into results in New Jersey and Virginia rightly or wrongly - mostly wrongly. It is what it is. There's not a lot you can do about it. It just happens," she said.

But even if New Jerseyans don't view the race as a referendum on Obama and national Democrats, the results will have a national meaning - especially to Republicans.

"If the Republicans can win with a damaged national brand, and given the condition of the state party, that will say something, I think, about the Republicans' longer prospects," said analyst Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. "It would be one giant adrenaline shot for the Republican Party."

Tags:

Biased reporting.

Submitted by Demsandonts on July 14, 2009 - 3:47pm.

The national pundits are trating the race as if the Democrat cannot lose much the way Democrats are treated in places like Maryland or New York where the notion is the state is too blue to go red. But blue states like California and Massachusetts have a history of voting for Republican governors and that trend could extend to New Jersey in this cycle where Corzine is about as unpopular as Jim Florio in 1991 and 1992. Florio got off the canvass in 93 and nearly pulled off the upset over Whitman. The difference was his Camden County and S Jersey base which Corzine does not enjoy. Secondly, the economy was not in the tank and Florio had a huge policy advantage as well as political experience over Christy Todd Whitman who like Chris Christie only served as a county freeholder in an elected capacity. With no base, no message to suburban voters and a terrible economy, what does Corzine do? He's had months to pick an LG and still can't find anyone to run with him. His time in the US Senate is poor to mediocre and his politcal support has been purchased and borrowed. Who really cares if Jon Corzine loses? That is his dilemma. More importantly, Corzine can't get to 50% and he'll need to prop up Daggett along the way... If Christie picks an Italian-American that adds some geographic balance, I don't know how he loses this race. Vote Column "A" - All the way!

BIAS

Submitted by PC517 on July 14, 2009 - 4:41pm.

I liked to read what these people were saying 4 years ago when Corzine had a lead on Forrestor in July or 3 years ago when Menendez lead Kean by 5 or 6. The size of this lead is substantial and for so called experts to try to dismiss this poll is unbelievable!! Christie has not run State wide before , Corzine has 2x. Maybe that is why 40% say they know nothing about him. So even if he lost 5% of those, he still has a lead. A veteran politician like corzine having 52% dis approval is a HUGE problem and these pollsters know it. I think these people should come clean if they do polling for democrats, I think that they do. No wonder they are not happy anout this, they lose work if this guy gets beat. Give the people of NJ some credit, they know what the issues are and who they like.

Another Point

Submitted by PC517 on July 14, 2009 - 4:47pm.

Montclair State University political science professor Brigid Harrison said that she puts "absolutely no stock" in the horse race numbers in terms of predicting the race's outcome. "Most people are thinking about vacations and the beach, so even if they have an opinion it doesn't necessarily reflect for whom they're going to vote," she said. "The other thing is that most of the polls at this point don't have very good composites of their likely voters."

What about the 9% unemployed in NJ? are they going on vacation too?

This lady is too much and she is clearly in the tank for Corzine, she spouts the same nonsense on NJN news.

Who does she do political work for? Some one should ask her....

"What about the 9%

Submitted by FanovFlorio on July 14, 2009 - 10:12pm.

"What about the 9% unemployed in NJ? are they going on vacation too?"

I don't think many of them are thinking about the governor's race in terms of impacting their prospects for getting a job.

If they are thinking in political terms more likely they are blaming Bush and the Republicans for messing up the economy in the first place.

"This lady is too much and she is clearly in the tank for Corzine,"

If that is true she would have said the election is over, Christie can relax and start planning his inauguration activities.

http://christiegonewild.blogspot.com/

Democrats

Submitted by chrisc23 on July 15, 2009 - 1:28am.

They are quick to blame Bush and the Republicans for everything. I've noticed ever since the DEMOCRATS took control of Congress in 2006 our country has had economic and other problems. And as far as I know there are 3 co equal branches of government.

The sad fact is the Obama administration has been given more power than ever before. Just look at how many czars he has appointed. And vp Biden is in charge of the biggest spending spree we have ever seen. So I think the Dems should keep quiet about how the Bush Administration was so powerful, we haven't seen nothing yet!

It is too early

Submitted by Republican Cons... on July 15, 2009 - 6:58am.

Of course they are not ready to count Corzine out; it is too early. It is the plan; let Christie bask in his polls. The Democrats have assured their symbiotic media that they have a plan so don't give up.

The plan? Let Christie bask in the polls and come late September switch out Corzine for a new favorable candidate. The last time their was a candidate so far down, they pulled Torricelli and resurrected Lautenburg. The media must keep Christie off guard for the next 2 months. Look for Bill Bradley to come to the aid of the Party and clean Christie's clock.

Corzine is not the issues; it is the dumb, stupid, failed, unworkable, always wrong ideas and ideals of ALL DEMOCRATS!!

"Obama is doing as much for the country as 'Typhoid Mary' did for the Red Cross." - Joseph Tomanelli

Pinkett is classic Corzine

Submitted by gorednj on July 15, 2009 - 7:48am.

You're all missing a key reason why he would pick Pinkett....

Jon Corzine wants to be loved...he craves it. Towards that end, if he picks Loretta Weinberg he ticks off the Buono crowd and visa-versa. As always, he can't make a tough decision which would make him unpopular with his core following. This is yet another example of a man who hasn't the courage of his convictions.

Vacation Comments

Submitted by PC517 on July 15, 2009 - 8:04am.

According to her everyone was on one or thinking about going. The obvious question is if you are not working, like many in NJ, would you be thinking about a vacation?? This woman made no mention of the economic problems facing people and I believe that polling data reflects that.

Again, most NJ voters are not stupid , unless you think they were real smart last year voting for Obama and suddenly got stupid now?? You can't have it both ways!

"According to her everyone

Submitted by FanovFlorio on July 15, 2009 - 12:15pm.

"According to her everyone was on one or thinking about going. The obvious question is if you are not working, like many in NJ, would you be thinking about a vacation?? This woman made no mention of the economic problems facing people and I believe that polling data reflects that."

Maybe she was only referring to the 90% of New Jersey voters who still have jobs.

I don't think she meant to be taken literally. She was simply reflecting the predominant belief among pundits (both GOP and dems) that most people don't start paying attention to elections until the fall. That has always been the case as long as I've been around politics.

Anyway, I wish she was wrong since I live near the Jersey shore and the crowds are no different than last year. Take a ride southbound on the Garden State Parkway Friday afternoons and you'll see.

http://christiegonewild.blogspot.com/

90% Have jobs?

Submitted by PC517 on July 15, 2009 - 3:20pm.

I don't think she meant to be taken literally." Come on, now were are supposed to make a guess about her statements? I saw her on election night on NJN and she seemed pro dem on that program as well. She has been on the news a few other times and her bias for Mr. Corzine is clear. Is she a friend of yours?? Fact: Many people in NJ are fed up with Corzine and the poll is overwhelmingly proof of that. For her to imply most people are not sure is hog wash. Yes some will change, but this poll is unprecedented im modern NJ Governor races. Look it up. Florio had a 9 point lead at this point in 1993 and his favorable were much higher then Corzine's 33% dismal number. But going back to the economy, the 9% are the ones collecting UE and many out of work are not counted. The government calculates the unemployed with a method from 30 years ago. The true number is probably 13% or more. I think it’s a HUGE stretch to claim 90& of NJ adults are working, that’s just not the fact. This poll is huge indication NJ wants Corzine out nd this pollster knows it.

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