FDU: Christie leads Corzine by 6

Republican Chris Christie leads incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in the race for governor by six points, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released this morning.

Christie leads Corzine 45% to 39% -- a slight decrease in Christie’s margin since of the last FDU survey in April, which put him ahead by 9%.  

 “Even though it’s early in the campaign, it is remarkable that a Republican is running ahead in New Jersey,” said FDU political science professor and poll director Peter Woolley.

Corzine’s favorability rating and approval rating are both upside down --  31% favorable to 54% unfavorable, and 36% approval to 49% disapproval.  But his numbers are particularly problematic among Democrats, 48% of whom see him favorably and 37% of whom have an unfavorable impression of him.    Sixty-six percent of Democratic voters say they’ll support Corzine, while 20% prefer Christie and 13% are undecided.  

“The governor’s key weakness right now is among Democrats,” said Woolley.  

Voters are not confident about the direction the state is heading in.  Only 21% say it’s the right direction, while 66% think New Jersey is on the wrong track.  

Meanwhile, Corzine’s advertising against Christie appears to be taking a toll on the Republican’s favorability rating, which remains in positive territory but has decreased since FDU last asked the question in April.  Thirty-four percent of voters have a favorable view of Christe.  Twenty-five percent see him unfavorably – up from 12% in April.  Back then, 38% of respondents had not heard of him.  Now, just 13% remain clueless as to who he is.  

Republicans’ attacks on the budget Corzine signed yesterday may not prove too volatile, according to the survey.  Fifty-five percent said it was a good idea to eliminate the property-tax write off for state income tax, versus 37% who said it was a bad idea.  Sixty-six percent favor increased taxes on wine and liquor, while a smaller majority – 56% -- think it’s a good idea to limit property tax rebates to seniors and families making under $75,000 a year.  

“The state budget may be squared away for the governor,” said Woolley. “But clearly the election is not.”

Other numbers of note:

-Eighty-nine percent of respondents had not heard of independent candidate Christopher Daggett, a former DEP commissioner and Regional EPA Administrator.  

-President Barack Obama remains popular in New Jersey, with a 61% approval rating.  But 27% of Obama voters prefer Christie.  

-Christie is seen as more “honest and trustworthy” than Corzine (33% to 24%), and as better understanding the concerns of average people  (40% to 28%).  But more people think Corzine has “the background and experience to be a good governor (42% to 29%).   

-Although voters at the moment prefer Christie, more think Corzine will win than Christie (46% to 38%).

Fairleigh Dickinson surveyed 803 registered voters between June 22 and June 29.  The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.