Pundits: Beltway is watching N.J., but not too closely

With Gov. Jon Corzine's consistently low job approval ratings giving Republicans hope of winning their first statewide campaign in New Jersey since 1997, there has been some low-frequency buzz in Washington about this state's election as a bellwether for the national political climate.

But two political analysts from inside the beltway cast doubt on the race's national significance, although Republicans could use a victory here, rightly or wrongly, as a sign of the party's resurgence.

"I think people, at least inside the beltway, for what it's worth, see that Corzine is not in great shape. They blame the economy and figure he'll eke out a win just on the basis of money," said Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy.  "A lot of Republicans kind of shrug their shoulders and say we're probably going to have a really good candidate there, and he's going to come really close, but we might get buried in Corzine's money."

Republicans are also looking to Virginia - the only other state that holds an off-year gubernatorial election - for some sign of hope.  There has been a three-decade trend in Virginia of the party that wins the White House loses the state house the following year.

Corzine's disapproval rating of 54% in a Quinnipiac poll, along with his 50% unfavorable rating, would under typical circumstances put presumed Republican frontrunner Chris Christie in a good position to defeat him in November.  But Corzine, Duffy said, has three things going for him: cash, the inherent Democratic nature of New Jersey and an ally in President Barack Obama, who remains popular in the state.

"I think he's in a unique position. Almost anybody else faces an incredibly uphill battle," she said.

Duffy analogized national Republican hopes for a win to comic strip character Charlie Brown's famous run at the football before his friend Lucy pulls it away.

"They'll go try to kick the ball again, but if they fall flat on their backs they won't be all that surprised," she said.

Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who writes the Rothenberg Political Report, said that most Washington insiders haven't paid much attention to the race in New Jersey yet.  But he said it takes on significance for national Republicans because they "need to give the sense that they're digging out of the hole," but that he does not think it will predicate the 2010 congressional races.

If a Republican wins here, it will "boost republican mood, might help some Republican recruitment and fundraising," Rothenberg said.

According to Rothenberg, today's Quinnipiac poll merely confirms that Corzine is vulnerable.  As for Christie, it should tell him not to take the primary for granted against rival Steve Lonegan.

"He certainly has to understand that primary voters are more conservative as a whole, and he might not want to invite a surprise in the primary by focusing on Corzine the whole time," said Rothenberg.  "You naturally want to focus on your general election opponent, and in this case you always have the frontrunner who is dismissive of the primary opponent who lags."