5th District again proves impossible for Dems

After blind rabbi/psychologist Dennis Shulman’s impressing fundraising, extensive press coverage and a Democratic wave, U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) still managed to easily hold on to his seat on Tuesday.

The margin was even one point wider than in 2006, when Democrat Paul Aronsohn didn’t have nearly as many resources at his disposal.

“I think it really honestly was his message, especially his fiscal conservatism.  The smaller government, less taxes message really resonates with 5th District voters,” said Garrett Campaign Manager Amanda Gasperino.  “We did a really good job getting his message out and communicating it effectively, which is why you saw an even larger win this cycle.”

Late in the campaign, Garrett did associate himself with a message that proved popular in the district: his opposition to the bailout package.  But Gasperino said that it wasn’t one single position that won the race.

“It’s not just the bailout. I think his position being a budget hawk, a fiscal conservative. I don’t think it was one particular issue,” she said.  “Conventional wisdom would have said it would have been closer with the amount of money they spent and the amount of resources they claimed to have, and the overall fact that everybody felt it was going to be an enormous Democratic wave.  I think it just shows really how well the Congressman represents the district.”

Shulman Campaign Manager Jeff Hauser said that even though the final outcome was disappointing, Garrett probably was forced to spend more money than ever before.  He estimates that, once the numbers are in, Garrett will have spent $1.5 million, not including help from outside groups.

”We’re proud of the fact that we forced Scott Garrett to raise what we expect will surpass $1.5 million. The NRCC bought radio time, the NRA put money into his district at the last minute, the club for growth,” he said.  “All the special interest groups we were attacking him over, and they made that fundraising cycle strong for him.”

Bergen County Democrats, for their part, cast a wary eye at the northern part of their county, which makes up the bulk of voters in Garrett’s district. While Shulman’s campaign rolled along, the party establishment instead steered most of its resources towards its county races, leery of wasting more resources in what they considered impossible to win.  And it’s clear that after this year defeating Garrett doesn’t look likely.

One Democratic source, who had earlier downplayed expectations about the BCDO’s involvement in the race because they’d already lost hope, said that he wasn’t surprised.  Instead, the party will probably just wait one more election cycle, and see if this district winds up getting cut up during redistricting.

Earlier in the season, Shulman said he would run again if he didn’t knock Garrett out this time.  But after an intense campaign with such lackluster results, that’s uncertain.

“I think he needs some time right now to recuperate. He’s got some patients he’s got to see and a congregation to attend to,” said Hauser.

Montclair University Professor Brigid Harrison had predicted before the election that Garrett would win, albeit by less than the 2006 margin.  She wasn’t surprised, however, that it turned out to be such a lopsided victory.

“Scott Garrett was able to pull out a significant win was primarily because the district is configured to be a Republican district, and that has not changed a great deal since the 2000 census,” she said. “I also believe that incumbency is enormously powerful obstacle for a challenger to overcome.  In this election year, in fact, about 90% of all incumbent members of the House in both political parties were elected.”