Dueling polls in the 7th District

In the 7th Congressional District, each major campaign has different poll results.

A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll released today shows Democrat Linda Stender with a nine point lead over Republican Leonard Lance, 40% to 31% with independent Bridgewater Councilman Michael Hsing, a former Republican, getting 8% and 18% of voters undecided. That poll’s margin of error is 4.9%.

“With Leonard Lance’s support for President Bush’s failed economic agenda, and his support for denying women access to birth control, Lance has made a commitment to the status quo in this change election year,” said DCCC spokeswoman Carrie James in a statment. “This poll shows Lance’s pro-George Bush strategy is failing.”

A Republican poll, however, shows Lance leading Stender 32% to 29%, with Hsing getting 4% of the vote – within that poll’s 5.5% margin of error.

Republican pollster Adam Geller said that DCCC polls across the country have overstated Democratic support, and said that Stender’s is no different. He noted that his numbers match more squarely with a recent Monmouth University poll, which found Lance beating Stender 41% to 37%, and Hsing pulling a negligible 2%.

“I think that if you look at the DCCC polling releases that they put out and you look at them in competitive congressional districts all over the country, there’s an absolute pattern of DCCC polling overstating Democratic support," he said.

The biggest difference between the Monmouth poll and Geller’s is with undecided voters. In Geller’s poll, 27% of voters were undecided, compared to 14% in the Monmouth poll.