September 16, 2008 - 2:47pm
News
Pindell Report boosts Myers, Lance
By Matt Friedman, PolitickerNJ.com ReporterThe Pindell Report, an independent analysis of state and federal races edited by Politicker.com's James W. Pindell, today upgraded the 3rd district House race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic,” and said that the contest in the 7th district has become more competitive.
The ranking corresponds with more optimistic national prospects for Republicans, with presidential candidate John McCain surging in the two weeks since the Republican National Convention began. In New Jersey, recent polls put McCain within three points of Barack Obama.
“These are two longtime Republican seats. Democrats haven't won the 3rd since 1882 and the 7th since 1956. Republicans are getting over heated primaries, while Democrats had cleared the field for John Adler and Linda Stender,” said Pindell. “While the Democrats have much more money, internal polls show this race to be getting a little closer. If John McCain is getting the base behind him as polls suggest then Lance and Myers might have a shot after all.”
As of June 30th, Adler had $1.46 million on hand to Myers’ $155,406. Stender had $1.2 million to Lance’s $80,000.
But the campaigns of both Republicans said that the Democrats’ fundraising advantage can’t make up for what they see as their natural disadvantages in the district.
Myers spokesman Chris Russell was happy to see the classification changed to one more favorable for his campaign, but argued that the district is strongly Republican.
“There’s no way this seat even leans Democrat. This is a Republican district. Jim Saxton has won it handily for a number of years. Chris Myers is a great candidate. He is running against someone who’s a career Trenton politician at a time when the people of this district and New Jersey are both tired of politicians and tired of Trenton,” he said.
Russell acknowledged that the fundraising disparity looks bad, but considered Adler’s fundraising prowess a paper tiger, noting that the campaign burned through hundreds of thousands of dollars over the spring and summer.
“Sure it looks great, but it’s a mile wide and an inch deep. When you peal that back, I think they have a campaign that’s not going as well as they want you to think it is,” said Russell.
Lance Campaign Manager Amanda Woloshen said as much about Stender, and noted that President Bush won the district in 2000 and 2004, while it voted for Republicans in the last two gubernatorial races.
“This is a Republican district that has voted for the Republicans in every election in the last seven years. McCain is far ahead, and voters are being reminded that Linda Stender is a big spender and a big taxer,” said Woloshen. “And especially after yesterday’s developments on Wall Street, they know that they cannot send somebody with Linda Stender’s fiscal mentality to Washington.”
What impact the economy has remains to be seen. Common knowledge says that, at least in the presidential race, a poor economy tends to benefit the Democratic candidate.
Stender spokeswoman Irene Lin preferred the Washington Post’s rating of the district as the 7th most competitive in the country (Pindell ranked it the 25th most competitive – up from the 29th), and said that the fact that President Bush – whose approval rating in New Jersey has just about hit rock bottom -- is coming to the Garden State to raise money for Lance and Myers shows desperation on their parts.
“We do think it’s highly competitive, and the fact that George Bush has to come in to raise money for these guys when he’s got a 22% approval rating in New Jersey, I think it shows how dire the situation is,” she said. “I think it’s going to be difficult for Leonard Lance to argue that he’s not going to go down there and be more of the same.”
Contributors
Wally Edge
Two New Jersey Congressmen are at opposite ends of a intra-party battle for the the chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, one of ... >
Bob Torricelli
There's nothing more difficult to see than the history before your eyes. It sometimes takes generations to understand the significance of ... >
Michael Patrick Carroll
OK, he didn't say precisely that, but when the Chairman of the Budget Committee informs us that governmental spending is the key to prosperity, ... >
Debbie Holtz
The Star Ledger got it right last April when it gave a thumb's-up to the NJN management plan to wean “the state's only public ... >
Steve Lonegan
The sub prime mortgage melt down and its ensuing financial “crisis” has tested the mettle of all of us who believe in and support the free ... >
Dr. Joseph Marbach
I am pleased to report the results from the first national poll conducted by Environmental Studies Program in the College of Arts and Sciences at ... >
Rob Tornoe
To view a larger version of this cartoon, click here. >
Michael P. Riccards
The media, which loves headlines and knows little history, is trying to sell President Elect Obama as another Franklin Delano Roosevelt. But that ... >
Joey Novick
Whenever I get the chance to visit my parents in Florida when working a comedy gig down there, it’s like living in a “Seinfeld” episode. They ... >
Juan Melli
In an election year driven by a hemorrhaging economy and an electorate hungry for an end to divisive politics, 7th Congressional District candidate ... >
Carla Katz
A couple of weeks ago, my mother, Angelina Katz, did her second debate on behalf of Barack Obama. A debate? My mother? If you knew her, you’d be ... >
Patricia Quattrocchi
A press release on the official Union County web site admittedly made me snicker just a bit today because it brought back to mind something my late ... >
Hot Topics
| Politicker INTERACTIVE | |
 |
Lawmaker Profile Follow the funding of your representatives |
 |
270 to Win See how Obama got to the magic number |
Most Active Stories
- Why is Levine running?
- Bramnick backs Christie for governor; urges GOP to use Lance as a model
- Christie to resign effective Dec. 1
- Pennacchio calls on GOP state chairman to resign
- Bryant guilty on all counts
- Lonegan gubernatorial announcement coming next month
- Spadea: Crowley decision won't hinge on Christie's plans
- Wilson not certain whether he’ll stay on as GOP State Chairman after June
- Governor reacts to Christie news
- Quinnipiac: Corzine 42%, Christie 36%
- Correction: Weiner departure was not his own idea
- Torricelli on COAH
- Two N.J. super delegates go to Obama; Norcross backs Obama; key Clinton supporters endorse Obama
- At energy policy meeting, Rose fights with cabinet and walks away
- Sixteen Democrats are on Norcross' short list for Andrews House seat
- Jackson will be Corzine's new Chief of Staff
- Roughneen in court today on signature challenge
- New Jersey's Most Powerful Law Firms
- Jersey City councilman makes it rain in Washington
- Torricelli on deer hunting
Recent Posts From Inside Edge
Quote of the Day
November 20, 2008
"(Dennis) Shulman, a blind rabbi and psychologist, acted as if articles about him and his candidacy in Time magazine and the New Yorker, as well as an endorsement from the mayor of New York City, made him a celebrity and a serious threat to incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Garrett. They didn’t. Most people in his district don’t read those magazines or care what Michael Bloomberg thinks. Garrett’s district strongly leans Republican, and Bush won it with 57 percent in 2004, running more than 11 points ahead of his statewide total. Credible Republican statewide candidates always carry the district even if they are getting pounded statewide. Despite all the self-generated hype and over-the-top campaign rhetoric, Shulman drew 42 percent against Garrett — almost 2 points worse than Paul Aronsohn (D) did two years earlier and only 1,300 votes more than 2004 Democratic nominee Anne Wolfe did."- Stuart Rothenberg, the editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics and political developments.
-Rothenberg Political Report, 11/19/08
Recent Press Releases
- Nov 19 2008
In the News
Read the expanded Wake Up Call, our summary of today’s news media coverage.
Today’s Must Reads:
Christie's legcy― THE BERGEN RECORD
Corzine for Treasury? Don't Bet on It.― WASHINGTON POST
Immigrants still in New Jersey― THE BERGEN RECORD
Now it's the Dems' chance to be dumb― PAUL MULSHINE
Corzine likely to go nowhere― THE DAILY RECORD
SILENT ON CHARGE; LIPSKI TELLS OF ALCOHOL BATTLE― STEVEN LIPSKI
Reclaiming the narrative of an enlightened nation ― CORY BOOKER
Gays don't 'got Milk' ― ALFRED DOBLIN
PolitickerNJ.com Jobs
Syndicate
Don't look now
Don't look now, but it is happening. All of the endorsements from the Regional errr Recreational Fishing Alliance and the like are not helping. The tide is turning. Chris wins the debate and is on target to have some large fundraisers in the next few weeks, adding to a successful two months. John is losing in his poll according to one poster, fires his staff according to numerous press accounts, and is losing in the Republican poll, too. All is not well in Cherry Hill. By the way, did you see how I use facts to back up my arguments and not outright lies? Innovative, huh?
Wait?
"Chris wins the debate" is a fact?
If you were there
If you were there and saw it, you would know it as a fact.
That's funny
I didn't think so at all. I also didn't find such conclusions in any of the papers or here on politicker by any of their writers. Just because you say he won and Chris Myers says the economy is basically strong don't make either of them true.
Andy
the oc is a Myers staffer. Give him a break for trying to keep his job.
Just wait until the Bush/Myers photo ops start springing up. The DCCC will probably have a field day with those pictures.
And don't forget Andy, the Press of Atlantic City said that by the end of the debate more people were cheering for Adler. The crowd even "groaned when Myers said in his closing statement that Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama would raise taxes." And this crowd was full of veterans.
I hear you
If you're going to try to pump up your argument as being fact based, why would you then go on and lie. I don't think anybody at this point expects arguments with logical conclusions from the oc? But apparently he would like to call to attention how ridiculous he is.
He'll never admit he's a Myers staffer but how else would he know that he's going to have "some large fundraisers in the next week" and now that the fundraisers he's held have been successful. I haven't heard of any besides the Bush one. But I suppose he'd be able to get a popular Republican to do a fundraiser if they thought Myers could win.
Police, Firefighters, Teamsters, Sierra Club, RFA have all endorsed Adler.
I don't get why a Myers staffer would make fun of the RFA, they surely don't have to vote with leadership so I'm not clear why he would insult their significance. That's not good politicking.
I read Adler made a change at campaign manager, but I did not hear he "fire[d] his staff". Since, you're all about these facts these days, perhaps you can enlighten me as to the evidence of this.
I heard
That Adler had to have paid staffers attend the event and there were more of them than Myers volunteer supporters. I heard that from a few folk who went to the event.
I will say this again, Burlco will be the turning point for Myers because no one in Burlco knows Adler and what people know is that he is a Corzine boy, a Trenton politican. Ocean will not go Adler's way so the real trick is how many votes can Myers take from Adler in Cherry Hill?
Do not underestimate Burlco.
pablos3
I agree that we should not underestimate Burlco. I think Burlco is where Adler is going to run away with the election. The Burlco people are fed up with the local corruption in the Burlco GOP and Medford taxpayers are fed up that there taxbills have hit the highest level ever.
Myers didn't even mention the Burlco numbers in his press release about a poll where only 60% responded. He's scared of his own district. Burlco is very moderate, much more so than Ocean County, and with the way things are right now in the world, that is going to play right into John Adler's hands on November 4th.
Keep in mind, Adler almost took Burlco from Saxton however many years ago that race was. Saxton! A popular figure with great name recognition and a record of helping this district. Chris Myers has no chance in Burlco.
When did Pindell say ...
the 7th got more competitive? All it did was move it down it's list of most likely to switch hands, but that doesn't necessarily mean it is more or less competitive. It could also mean that other races became less competitive in other states.
PolitickerNJ always seems to assume the best for the Republican when reading polls or horse race pieces. I don't think it's a conservative bias, but a desire for better more exciting news to bring readers in and cause controversy. Right now the GOP is the underdog, so bumping them up creates more juicy news.
It happened last week with the Obama/McCain poll that had Obama three points up but was called a "dead heat" when it could also be read as Obama leading by six.
"Wolf! Wolf!" Part 2
Let me get to Andy's comments first. Obviously you were not at the event to see the reaction of people before, during and after. Chris clearly impressed more people there thanks to folks like you and iamreallyalberaldem oc who painted him as a stuttering mess. Even if you and he or she had not, Chris still would have pulled it out. The veterans - not the Adler campaign staffer there - were extremely impressed with Chris' grasp of the issues, views on those issues, and ability to respond to criticism. As for Adler's staff, did he not get rid of his two top staffers? In the middle of a "successful" campaign is not the time to fire your campaign manager unless your own internals tell you the direction of the campaign is tanking. This report confirms it. But please forgive me for not addressing the RFA issue until the end. I will certainly do so. Now to the boy who cried "Wolf!" iamreallyaliberaldem oc - when will you stop lying to make a point. For the 90th time, I am not a paid or volunteer staffer for Chris Myers. I don't really care if you believe me or not. It is a fact (wow - there is that weird word which is foreign to you). The reason I know Chris is doing well in his fundraising is because it has been reported in the press moron. Gilmore hosted a very successful fundraiser with Al Leiter and there were at least two fundraisers in DC with the Republican Leadership. As for my knowledge of big fundraisers coming up, are you two clueless? Did you both not read and post bs on the Bush event coming up? And on previous posts it had been mentioned that Saxton's annual lobster bake event will be taken over by Chris. I am attending as I purchased tickets - a campaign staffer would not have the ability to purchase tickets. So continue to spread your lies. As long as you and Andy believe them you will be happy campers. Now on to the RFA. John Adler in accepting the Recreational Fishing Alliance's endorsement made the comment (according to his press release) "Your (RFA's) support is a reflection of my personal commitment" to mutual issues of interest. Does that also include sexual harassment? I have come to learn that the "reputable" organization which has glowingly endorsed Adler and "insiders" such as yourself, iamreallyaliberaldem oc, and Alice (aka Tinker Bell, Martian et al), have stated is a major endorsement, has been sexually harassing its employees. James Donofrio and the organization (RFA and Viking Yachts) were sued by two female employees, one of which was settled out of court and the other was pending - I am trying to confirm the other's outcome. Yet John Adler shares their "commitment"? Senator John I am for the average guy Adler must not be for the average gal. When will he come out and denounce the workplace environment at the RFA under his "friend" James Donofrio? Maybe we will be successful in getting him out of the oc.