Senate and Congressional primary predictions

Can’t wait until tomorrow night to see who wins the major U.S. Senate and Congressional primary contests?

Below are some predictions from pollsters, political science professors and observers who track Garden State politics.

The observers were unanimous in their predictions for the Democratic Senate primary, foreseeing a relatively easy victory for incumbent Frank Lautenberg. On the Republican end, the outlook was not so clear cut, with observers split between state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and former Rep. Dick Zimmer. Ramapo College Finance Professor Murray Sabrin will have the support of presidential candidate Ron Paul’s fans, and could take some conservative voters away from Pennacchio.

In the heated Republican primary in the 7th congressional district, state Sen. Leonard Lance is the clear favorite. The 3rd district congressional primary, however, is a toss-up. In what has been perhaps the nastiest race of the election cycle, it was tough decide who had the edge between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly.

These races will likely be determined by a very small number of voters. Even the most optimistic of outlooks puts voter turnout at approximately 30%, and most say they expect significantly less than that.

Democratic Senate primary

This has been an extraordinarily short primary season, with South Jersey Rep. Rob Andrews deciding to challenge incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg only two months ago. Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello jumped in to challenge Lautenberg shortly before Andrews did -- a bid that even Cresitello admits isn’t likely to result in a win.

Andrews never fails to mention that he’s shaken about 40,000 hands across the state, and given his intense campaign schedule all over New Jersey, any voter who wanted a chance to meet him wouldn’t have had to travel far to do so. But Andrews has only had eight weeks to make his case. The scene might have been different, observer say, if Andrews had announced his candidacy several months earlier.

Andrews is also a clear long-shot against Lautenberg’s vastly superior organizational support north of I-195, even if Andrews does have the backing of some North Jersey power brokers like Steve Adubato in Essex County and state Sen. Ray Lesniak in Union County. And while Andrews has raised a significant amount of money with the help of South Jersey boss George Norcross III, and has advertisements running in the New York and Philadelphia television markets targeting Lautenberg’s age, it’s not enough to compete with Lautenberg’s reserves.

Ingrid Reed, Director of the Eagleton Institute’s New Jersey Project

Call: likely Lautenberg

“It’s simply on a pragmatic basis of what you need to do to win a campaign in New Jersey, where you need to engage voters and make sure they know who you are. And I just don’t think that the people who would potentially be open to Andrews’s call for change have really had an opportunity to get to know him,” she said.

Andrews’s co-authoring of the Iraq War Resolution and his continued support for Bush Administration war policies before public opinion turned against the conflict in 2005 also hurt him with primary voters, according to Reed.

“If he had not been as active in the early days in support of Bush, he might have had more Democrats be willing to take a look at him. I still think the war is important among Democrats in primaries.”

Patrick Murray, pollster and political science professor at Monmouth University

Call: safe Lautenberg

It’s easy to call based solely on numbers, according to Murray. Generously giving Cresitello 10% of the vote, Murray pointed out that, even if Andrews wins 70% of the vote in South Jersey counties, Lautenberg will only need to win about 48% or 49% in his North Jersey strongholds to prevail.

“Lautenberg is going to win this race. It’s just too much ground for Andrews to make up,” said Murray. “You’re trying to knock off an incumbent Democrats are comfortable with – in order to do that you’ve got to lay that groundwork way ahead of time.”

Brigid Harrison, political science professor at Montclair State University

Call: safe Lautenberg

Lautenberg should have no trouble winning reelection, said Harrison, but the real question for Rob Andrews is how close he comes.

Harrison points to 7% as the magic number. If Andrews loses to Lautenberg by that many points or less, he may be in a good position for a gubernatorial run, which insiders have speculated about from virtually the moment Andrews entered the primary. He could also make another go for Lautenberg’s Senate seat in six years (or try to get appointed to it by the Governor if Lautenberg leaves earlier) – despite how badly his candidacy has ticked off fellow Congressman and other party leaders. But if he doesn’t poll closely to Lautenberg, the Andrews name will no longer resonate in political circles.

“If he can bring it in under 7%, that’s probably exceeding expectations and he might be viewed as a contender when Sen. Lautenberg decides to retire or for any future governors race,” she said. “But I think when you’re above 7%, you’re really getting close to double digit area and that does not bode well for his ability to attract a diverse constituency throughout the state.”

Joe Marbach, political science professor at Seton Hall University (and PolitickerNJ.com contributor)

Call: safe Lautenberg

Lautenberg wins based solely on his organizational support, according to Marbach. But he doesn’t buy the argument that Andrews’s ad hitting Lautenberg on age will necessarily alienate the senior citizens who turn out to vote in droves.

“In conversations I’ve had seniors, they are some of the strongest supporters that age is a factor, and I think they take into account their own circumstances. I’ve been told ‘I’m 84 and I wouldn’t do it.’”

Republican U.S. Senate primary

A Monmouth University poll last month had Zimmer beating Pennacchio by 20 points, and the former Congressman still leads the other two candidates in name recognition.

But the race seems to have tightened since then, with Zimmer and Pennacchio both running negative ads about each other. Sabrin has actually raised more money to date than both of them, but has not had the same type of radio and cable television presence.

Zimmer came into the race as the mainstream Republican candidate to replace Anne Evans Estabrook, who dropped out after suffering a minor stroke. She was initially replaced by Goya Foods heir Andy Unanue, who ran an ill-fated three week campaign from his ski chalet in Veil, Colo., coming to New Jersey for only one day to file his paperwork. Days later, Zimmer was appointed by Unanue’s Committee on Vacancies to fill in for him.

One of Zimmer’s ads that targets Pennacchio focuses on several policy papers Pennacchio bound together and called A Nationalist Agenda, which included some unorthodox and occasionally whacky ideas.

Pennacchio, meanwhile, has several organization lines, even in places where party leadership is, at best, unwelcoming to his candidacy. He’s lent his campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars and his fundraising has been anemic, but it’s enough to get him some advertising time to attack Zimmer for taking advantage of a tax break on his Hunterdon County farm and paint him as a Washington lobbyist.

Sabrin, meanwhile, has run a PR blitz of a campaign and even picked up a county line in Gloucester County. But while observers note that he’s performed well in debate, his aggressive and occasionally misleading attacks against other candidates have puzzled some observers, and his decision to run several slates against Republicans further alienated party leadership.

Murray: Leans Pennacchio

It was Murray’s own poll that showed Pennacchio trailing drastically, but things have changed over the last month.

Pennacchio’s advantage is strong organizational in Morris County, which traditionally has the highest Republican primary vote turnout in the state. Combined with Bergen County, the two produce a quarter of the state’s Republican primary votes. Pennacchio even managed to hold on to Zimmer’s home county of Hunterdon, despite an effort to take it away from him. Hunterdon, combined with Somerset, Union and Middlesex – all of which have Pennacchio on the county line - - form parts of the 7th congressional district, which could see a higher than average voter turnout because of the primary there.

“With Bergen, Morris, Somerset and Hunterdon behind him, I’d say there’s a possibility for an interesting upset here,” said Murray.

Harrison: Safe Zimmer

For Harrison, this comes down to Zimmer’s name recognition. It was only 12 years ago that he served his last term in Congress, where he was known as a fiscal conservative.

“His name still carries some weight with many Republicans throughout the state,” she said.

Moreover, although Pennacchio has a couple of county lines, the ill will that party leaders have towards his campaign shouldn’t be discounted.

“In thinking about the relative organizational dissatisfaction statewide with his candidacy, it seems to me the powers that be who do have a good amount of control over what happens in the counties, I don’t think if he were going to be the nominee they would have exerted all this effort,” she said.

Marbach: likely Zimmer

Sure, Pennacchio fended off a redo challenge from Zimmer to keep the Hunterdon County line. But county committee members and voters are not one-and-the-same, an Zimmer said after the loss that members came up to him and told him that, although they voted to keep Pennacchio on the county line, they would vote for him in the election.

Marbach said that Zimmer’s name recognition in Hunterdon and other parts of the state should be enough to propel him past Pennacchio, some of whose base will be shared with Sabrin.

“All the Republicans have had poor name recognition, but of the three Zimmer still has the better name recognition,” he said.

Reed: leans Zimmer

This one is basically a toss-up to Reed, but she gives the slight edge to Zimmer, mostly because of the role Sabrin could play in siphoning off conservative votes.

“I think that one is a real puzzle, and I say that because its hard to see what Zimmer has done, or what the Republican leadership has been doing that is going tog et out the more centrist Republicans,” she said. “So Maybe the fact that you have two conservative Republicans running means that vote will be split and Zimmer will have an easier time of getting in, but I think he will prevail. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t.”

7th congressional district Republican primary

There are a whopping seven Republican candidates in this district, where Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson is retiring and the Democratic candidate, Linda Stender, is unopposed in the primary.

But really, there are four competitive candidates here: State Sen. Leonard Lance, Kate Whitman, Kelly Hatfield and Marty Marks. And of those four, experts typically agree that it’s Lance’s race to lose.

Whitman has been able to lead the pack in fundraising with the network originally put in place by her mother, former Gov. Christie Whitman. She’s also the only candidate who hasn’t sunk a personal loan into her campaign.

But Lance has raised enough money, and has the line in two of the district’s four counties: his home county of Hunterdon and Whitman’s home county of Somerset.

Some have speculated that Marks, who’s run well to the right of the other candidates, could pull an upset by taking most of the conservative votes while the others split the moderates, but none of the observers saw that as a realistic scenario.

Harrison: safe Lance

To Harrison, the county lines are a determining factor, along with Lance’s long career in the state legislature, where he’s served since 1991.

“You have cadres of Republican voters who have a history of voting for him. It would take a very strong reason why they would deviate from that, and I don’t think Kate Whitman will deviate from that,” she said.

Reed: likely Lance

Like Harrison, Reed believes that Lance’s overwhelming organizational support – including his preferred ballot placement in two of the district’s most populous counties, make him the clear favorite.

“I think that means something to have that kind of support in the district. Because it is a very scattered district,” she said.

Marbach: leans Lance

Lance leads because of his long legislative service in a significant chunk of the district, but Marbach said that Whitman’s name recognition and fundraising capacity shouldn’t be ignored.

“There’s been a fair amount of spending going on, and Whitman’s been able to match or outspend him. I’m not sure what the final numbers will show. It’s a competitive race, and each has a kind of geographic base within the district,” he said.

Murray: likely Lance

About three in 10 Republican voters have already voted for Lance in the State Senate, and Murray expects him to win in his home county of Hunterdon by a huge margin.

“I think he’s going to get close to 50% of the total vote in Hunterdon County alone, and if he even wins by a squeaker in Somerset he wins this,” he said.

If Marks pulls an upset, it will be just by having a better-than-expected showing.

“I think there’s a possibility of Marks pulling an upset by getting into second place,” he said.

3rd district Republican primary

The contest that both candidates said would be “gentlemanly” has been anything but. The kind of attacks the two have unleashed against each other, including a Myers mailer equating Kelly with a pig wearing a crown, have made the jabs between Lautenberg and Andrews look tame.

There are three candidates in the race: Chris Myers, Jack Kelly and Justin Murphy, an anti-machine candidate running on Murray Sabrin’s slate. Whoever wins will take on Democrat state Sen. John Adler to fill the seat retiring Rep. Jim Saxton.

This is a traditionally Republican district, but at $1.1 million, Adler has the biggest war chest of any open seat challenger in the country. His opponents have each only raised a fraction of that, and have had to spend it on battling each other.

Myers and Kelly have roughly equal war chests and equally strong county organizations behind them – Burlington for Myers and Ocean for Kelly. But while Myers has the added bonus of having the line in Cherry Hill, which is the only part of Camden County that makes up the district, Murphy could also siphon off a few crucial Burlington County votes.

This one’s just too close to call between Myers and Kelly, though two observers believe it leans ever so slightly in Myers’s favor. That might not be good news to Democrats, who in Kelly an easier opponent and have sent anti-Myers campaign literature to Republican voters.

Marbach: leans Myers

The exposure of Kelly’s patronage position at the South Jersey Transportation Authority, which he was unqualified for and which got lots of play in the influential Asbury Park Press, could be Kelly’s “Achilles heel.”

“Some damage has been done with some of the patronage jobs that he’s had. There’s just a sentiment among voters to kind of limit the dual office-holding and patronage,” he said.

Murray: leans Myers

Murray was even less certain about this one than Marbach, but said that, based on a combination of reading into Democratic fears and his own instinct, Myers should have a slight advantage.

“The party in Ocean is a little more stable with less strife than in Burlington, which would seem to favor Kelly. But my gut level says I’m going to give a lean to Myers,” he said. “When I say lean I think it can go either way, but I’ll take a guess.”

Reed: toss-up

The endorsement of Saxton will probably help Myers a bit, but Kelly’s got the Ocean County machine behind him. There’s never been a Congressman who calls Ocean County home, and they want one badly.

“I think that the Ocean County Republicans want to be a part of the action. It’s hard to know. It’s a toss-up for me.”

Harrison: toss-up

Primary voters are savvy enough, Harrison said, to realize that a vote for Justin Murphy would essentially be a vote for Jack Kelly.

“Voters in Burlington County may actually understand by voting for (Murphy) they’ll be determining the outcome in favor of another candidate,” she said.

But Harrison said that the campaign has been overshadowed by the Senate race and the seventh district primary race. She also hasn’t heard of any polling data that could indicate which way the district leans.

“I’ve looked at their money, tried to figure it out. I don’t know,” she said.