January 20, 2008 - 11:28am

News

For Lautenberg, mixed poll numbers and blue state comfort

By Editor

New Jerseyans like the job Democrat Frank Lautenberg is doing in the United States Senate, but most voters seem ready for a change – and not because Lautenberg would be 90-years-old at the end of his text term, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today. Just 19% of New Jersey voters say that Lautenberg should be re-elected to a fifth term, while 58% want someone else. And still, 51% of voters disagree that Lautenberg is getting to old to be effective.

“Considering that even Democrats would prefer a fresh face in the Senate, there are probably many reasons voters feel it is time for a change, but Lautenberg’s age does not seem to be the deciding factor,” said Patrick Murray, the poll director. “Of course, the alternative has to be palatable to the voters, and right now the Republican field does not seem to be particularly strong when pitted head-to-head with Lautenberg.”

In head-to-head contests, Lautenberg leads two Republican candidates by about the same margins: 38%-24% against millionaire developer Anne Evans Estabrook, and 40%-25% against State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio. The poll did not include Ramapo College Professor Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul supporter who entered the race after the survey went into the field.

Lautenberg’s approval numbers – 43%-28% -- make him the most popular statewide official in the state. U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez is at 37%-25%. Voters say he has been “a strong voice for the state” (51%-31%), and by a 41%-34%, voters say Lautenberg’s political views are in line with most New Jerseyans.

One out of every two Democrats say it’s time to replace Lautenberg, while 59% of Independents and 76% of Republicans feel that way.

New Jerseyans give their own Congressman high approval ratings: 55%-19%.

“Right now, the state’s House delegation stands in better stead than its two U.S. senators,” commented Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Lautenberg is seen as a strong voice for the state, but it’s not clear that New Jersey voters really want to give him another six years.”

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted by telephone with 698 New Jersey registered voters from January 9 to 13, 2008. This sample has a margin of error of +3.7 percent.

EDITOR can be reached via email at editor@politicsnj.com.

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Comments

Lautenberg in trouble

posted by Dave

Estabrook is holding Lautenberg to 38. The polling guy doesnt understand that means she can beat him but I am sure the Lautenberg's people understand it. This is going to be a competitive race

01/20/08 12:19 pm

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Lautenberg isn't in trouble

posted by MartinOne

There's not a single political analyst I've read -- from Sabato to Rothenberg -- who even remotely puts N.J. in play for Republican senate candidates in 2008. All of them point Lautenberg to "strongly favored Dem" to "safe Dem." The Rasmussen poll had Lautenberg ahead of Estabrook by 19, and they are the most reliable pollsters in the country. "Jersey Joe" and "Triangulating Anne" have virtually no chance against Lautenberg in November; he is quite obviously the superior candidate to either.

01/20/08 2:38 pm

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Time for the Democrats to GO. Enough is enough

posted by observant

The democrats better be afraid and scared. I mean how much longer do they expect us to endure their painfull taxes? Look around ANY town or county in this state, there are "For Sale " signs everywhere. Its not the Economy this time, its New Jersey Politicians and there tax and spend mentality. The Democrats have been in power toolong and has caused more than thier share of pain. We are suppose to believe that the Republicans are the party of the rich ??? Just look at what the Democrats have done and who they have done it for. Hmm the Govenor South, Very rich party Boss Norcross, oh and the Millionaire Govenor. it wont be long before the middle classis taxed right out of this state,and only the Rich Democrats will be able to afford to stay and live here.

While we can still afford to live here, long enought to vote, I say that the Democrats should be afraid. Maybe the Republicans are not the perfect answer to what is needed, but they are sure as heck better than what we have now. In fact ANYTHING is better than a New Jersey Democrats if you want to be able to afford to stay and live here. The Dems raise TONS more money, they far outnumber the Reps. People vote and we can fix our own mistakes,and we dont need the money that the Democrats or any Poliitican has. WE vote for free.

ITS TIME TO CLEAN HOUSE. Sorry Dems you had your chance, ya blew it. its time to let someone else fix YOUR mess. Its time for us as New Jersey residence to stop the bleeding while we still have a heartbeat, before the democrats TAX us to death. Republicans the time is now to regroup build up and get your messege out. This is YOUR election. Sweep and clean this mess up, while there is still time.

01/20/08 4:27 pm

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and what to do about Murray Sabrin?

posted by JDouglasFisher

Although the poll is cute at best, it doesn't account for a few different things. First, although Murray announced his candidacy after this poll was sent into the field, the writer cannot truly guage the opinion with the public since Murray wasn't an option in the poll to begin with.

Second, Murray has a following already, and has no doubt gained the ever expanding support of the Ron Paul Republican grass roots effort. The enthusiasm that was sparked by the Ron Paul candidacy is growing like wildfire, and more people are joining the ranks. Apathy is rampant in the Republican party in New Jersey, and what your starting to see now is the release of pent up frustration with the way things have gone down the toilet over the past decade.

I know its the beginning of a campaign for the nomination of the party followed by the General, but Murray can actually win this, even if the Democrats try and pull another Jedi Mind Trick with that bait and switch plot involving Bob Torricelli way back when.

Believe it or not, his supporters aren't worried about going against whomever the Democrats put forward, the focus is on trying to defeat the same party opponents who "claim" they are conservative, but in reality aren't.

Needless to say, his work is cut out for him, but he has the one thing that money cannot buy: The Passion of his supporters.

J Douglas Fisher

01/20/08 4:50 pm

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Murray Sabrin

posted by SJBlue

Just like ROn Paul himself, Murray may make a good point or two, but his candidacy and positions are commical. Ron Paul can be packaged into a relativly palatable package for many voters. He says things that resonate such as abolshing the IRS, bringing home all of our troops, and that the government should not be giving out "welfare" to farms, corporations, or people. That sounds like commonsense, but let us be serious for a moment. Non of that is at all politically or practically possible. Pennachio has an organization, and Eastabrook has $$$$, and establishment behnd her. Sabrin would make a terrible candidate state-wide (academics tend to fair poorly as candidates-although that is unfair). Sabrin, like JP and AEE would be crushed by FL come November. FL has done well since returning to the Senate, he has been a vocal opponent of GWB and his failed policies and he has kept his reputation as a work horse despite his age. I too have developed a tremendous appreciation for what Bob Menendez has been able to do, but if Frank wants to stay NJ will vote him back in. I doubt that he will be able to finish another term, but I would hate to see Andrews, Rothman, or Adler fill that seat anytime soon and Pallone, despite his fundraising abilities, is an unlikely choice. I hope FL stays happy, healthy, and in the Senate until he is well into his 90s.

01/20/08 6:29 pm

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International Socialism experiment in NJ is in trouble

posted by bergenite

Lautenberg the Godfather of NJ political corruption and international socialism has had his day. NJ is bankrupt.

This elections is for Republicans to lose. Putting up another counrty club chamber of commerce type without a populist message or someone who wants NJ voters to drink a new brand of " Socialism Lite" will lead to another Forrister disaster.

01/20/08 7:54 pm

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New Jerseyans have not elected a Republican Senator since 1972

posted by dcdem

and everyone knows it. The fact that you don't see any big Republican names running against FRL is a strong indication that no one thinks they've got a chance against him. The ones that are in this see this as a no-lose situation: even if defeated, they enhance their reputations just by being on a state-wide ticket. Notice also that no Republican member of the congressional delegation is giving up their seat to run. That's not because being in the minority in the House is such a terrific gig. It's because they'd have to give up a guaranteed job to run. The odds don't look to good from their vantage point and they're not good for anyone else.

01/20/08 9:47 pm