Is Pallone vulnerable?

By Jeff Michaels | November 23rd, 2009 - 9:24pm
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As pundits and party leaders look to next year’s Congressional elections in NJ, it appears that freshman Democrat John Adler is the most vulnerable incumbent.  Despite actually calling himself a “conservative” Democrat, his vote for ultra-liberal House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrat Leadership will render that innoculation strategy suspect, to an electorate that is increasingly alienated from the policies of the current Congress and President Obama.

In fact, voters in Adler’s district overwhelmingly favored Republican Governor-elect Chris Christie in the gubernatorial election, and Adler himself faced a tough challenge, despite out-spending his opponent, having a larger base (legislative district and one-time Congressional candidate vs. a small-town Mayor) and running in the best Democratic year (2008) in at least a generation.

Assuming current trends, and assuming Republicans nominate a strong candidate, Adler is probably a goner.

One of the more intriguing possibilities for Republicans appears to be incumbent Frank Pallone of the 6th district.  I know, I know – he’s got $4million in the bank, he’s a long-time incumbent, and very good retail politician.  His district leans Democratic, especially because it has significant pockets of minority populations – New Brunswick, parts of Franklin Township in Somerset County, Plainfield, and Asbury Park.

But in my opinion, several factors make Pallone vulnerable.  First, the political environment is getting toxic for national Democrats.  President Obama’s approval ratings are dipping below 50 percent in some national polls.  In NJ, the bloom is off the rose for the President, as independent voters are now evenly-split on his job performance.  In fact, NJ’s independent voters are now – at least for the time being -  behaviorally “Republican.”  This was due in part to Jon Corzine’s vulnerabilities (poor record and personality), but has also been heavily influenced by the national political environment.

And it’s getting worse.  The health care debate in Washington keeps turning moderate and swing voters away from Democrats, as votes are brazenly for sale and deficits are soaring, and national affairs are becoming a problem as the President’s handling of Afghanistan is worrying even his own supporters.

This encouraging political environment for Republicans has generated a very strong crop of candidates for Senate and House across the country, as GOP leaders increasingly smell blood.  A US Senate seat in New York State might even be in play if Rudy Guiliani takes the plunge, which increasingly appears likely.

If trends continue, Republicans will likely make huge gains in both houses, with a strong possibility of control of both.

Pallone has not “inoculated” himself against any of these dangerous “national” trends or issues, lining solidly behind the Democratic Party line on most issues.

Furthermore, the turnout in 2010 will be the 2nd lowest turnout of any year in the 10-year census cycle, because the House of Representatives will be at the top of the ticket.  The only other years with lower turnout are the 2 elections in the 10-year cycle that feature the NJ State Senate at the top of the ticket.

A very low turn-out, especially among minority voters, will mean that the voting electorate will be weighted heaviest toward tax-sensitive swing voters, precisely the voters in the 101.5 radio market that floods this district, and who provided Chris Christie with record margins in Middlesex and Monmouth counties, right in the heart of Pallone country.

Finally, it can be argued that a $4 million warchest will avail him about as much as Jon Corzine’s $35 million campaign did, when you are talking about angry taxpayers who want to send a message to over-spending, over-taxing politicians who appear out of touch.  Sound familiar?

For these reasons, it would benefit GOP leaders to start thinking now about strong potential candidates for this district.  

In answer to the headline ...

No.

No way

Pallone is safe. Adler definitely isn't safe.

VERY Vulnerable!

At a Townhall Meeting this past summer, Pallone was asked if he supports Nancy Pelosi. His response was, "Not only do I support her, she's one of my favorite people in Washington."

That quote will come back to haunt Pallone like the ghost of Christmas past!

"We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work!"
- FDR's Treasure Secretary, Henry Morgenthau, in 1939, on 8 years of New Deal spending as an attempt to end the Great Depression.

"Furthermore, the turnout in

"Furthermore, the turnout in 2010 will be the 2nd lowest turnout of any year in the 10-year census cycle, because the House of Representatives will be at the top of the ticket. The only other years with lower turnout are the 2 elections in the 10-year cycle that feature the NJ State Senate at the top of the ticket.

A very low turn-out, especially among minority voters, will mean that the voting electorate will be weighted heaviest toward tax-sensitive swing voters, precisely the voters in the 101.5 radio market that floods this district, and who provided Chris Christie with record margins in Middlesex and Monmouth counties, right in the heart of Pallone country."

Another way of putting it is that Republicans can only win elections if Democrats stay home.

So much for Democracy.

christiegonewild.blogspot.com

"At a Townhall Meeting this

"At a Townhall Meeting this past summer, Pallone was asked if he supports Nancy Pelosi. His response was, "Not only do I support her, she's one of my favorite people in Washington."

That quote will come back to haunt Pallone like the ghost of Christmas past!"

So what? Do you really think any voter inclined to vote for Pallone will change his mind because the latter says he likes Pelosi? Besides most voters don't even know who Pelosi is, or care about her one way or the other.

And even less know who John Boehner is, and the ones who do know don't care about him any more than they care about Pelosi. You're really naive if you think anyone will be enticed to vote for Pallone's opponent just because they're excited at the prospect of Boehner becoming Speaker.

christiegonewild.blogspot.com

"Pallone is safe. Adler

"Pallone is safe. Adler definitely isn't safe."

Adler's safe for now. Diane Allen is sick, Chris Connors says he probably won't run, and Jon Runyan is a mess. Even now it is being reported Runyan is in San Diego trying to finalize a contract so he can continue to play football, which doesn't sound like he's very serious about running for Congress.

Actually I hope Runyan does run because Adler will run over him like Michael Strahan.

christiegonewild.blogspot.com

Staying Home

because the base is realizing after all that your hyperbole is not feeding them , staying away because being used is no fun when the curtain is pulled back they are not happy being used

Staying Home

because the base is realizing after all that your hyperbole is not feeding them , staying away because being used is no fun when the curtain is pulled back they are not happy being used

no

not at all, Pallone kills whoever runs againts him

Jenn Beck

could beat Pallone

Jennifer Beck

If she chose to run against Pallone, I'd do everything I could to make sure she won. Adler is the most vulnerable and is sucking up to every constituent group he can in my county. He KNOWS he is vulnerable, so his butt-kissing is just going to get more obvious.

OE

Adler underestimated, Pallone overrated.

Frank Pallone was a co-sponsor to that bill and the senior opposition to it overwhelmingly high.

Adler is a much better campaigner and candidate. Some ex-jock isn't going to beat him. The Pete Dawkins playbook hardly works unless you're Bill Bradley and played for the Knicks.

Pallone is in trouble and Kim Guadagno would be the person to beat him..Christie could then apppoint someone else LG.

She is the strongest candidate.

Vote Column - All the way!

Who is Jeff Michaels

You seem to dismiss $4million, a 20 year record and a liberal district. I understand Pallone and Christie might have some issues, but Pallone is safe. It is a ridiculous article.

We've heard "Pallone is vulnerable" many times before

I understand it's Jeff Michaels' job to sell this stuff, but I'm not buying.

As Jeff well knows, Pallone hasn't been tested since he defeated Joe Kyrillos back in 1992, in what was a new congressional district for him. NJ-6 today is decidedly more "Democratic" than the district Pallone narrowly won in 1988 and 1990.

The best bet for beating Pallone is to draw a more competitive map for the 2012 redistricting.

Finally, consider that Democrats have repeatedly trumpeted that "Chris Smith is vulnerable, this is the year we'll defeat him," and yet they have been unable to come up with a credible challenger since the early 1980s.

Point is: saying someone (Pallone, Smith) is "vulnerable" is one thing. Defeating them is something else entirely.

As for Kim Guadagno, I doubt she'll take on Pallone in her 1st year as LG. She's too smart for that. She will bide her time. If, in 2012, the district is more favorable, perhaps then she gets in that race.

Yes Pallone is vulnerable

I went to his town hall in Red Bank over the summer...the line snaked around the block, there was no parking, he had to have 3 sessions to accomodate everyone. Some, including myself waited 3 hours in line.

I for one, can't wait until Nov 2010 to vote him out.

But, go ahead keep underestimating the silent majority...

Silent Majority

This guy goes to a town hall meeting with people screaming nonsense and trying to kill much needed health care reform, and he calls this a "silent majority". I believe there is a silent majority, but it is on the left not the right. These right wing dinosaurs pratically destroyed our country and now they scream and yell as if all of a sudden they have the answers. The last 30 years of Republican policies have put our country on the brink of destruction. Jeff Michaels should report on that. Pallone is safe and should be.

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