Obama blind spot?

By Jeff Michaels | November 9th, 2009 - 8:22am
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The NJ gubernatorial election result demonstrates that Governor-elect Chris Christie resurrected the center-right voter coalition of Republicans, Independents, and conservative and moderate Democrats that has always produced Republican victories.  Even Christie Whitman failed to do this in both her elections for Governor.

Christie was able to hold social conservatives on the right, but appeal on economic grounds to moderates and independents, to forge the largest electoral majority for a state Republican since Tom Kean in 1985.

Indeed the new Christie Majority cuts across both parties, and all regions of the state.  While several GOP-leaning counties produced eye-popping numbers (Ocean and Monmouth), Christie's win was not a regional one.  It was a state-wide phenomenon.  The new Governor won Middlesex and Gloucester counties, and came closer than expected in places like Union county.

It was a re-alignment of historic proportions, and one that will give the Governor-elect a major base of political support that Legislative Democrats will ignore or challenge at their own peril.

While the election certainly turned on an ineffective and unpopular incumbent Governor, the backdrop of the race was influenced by the uneasiness and uncertainty of the electorate, especially independent voters, about their own economic future.

I had written earlier that I thought President Obama had started to turn around his free-fall in public opinion, by going before Congress in September and attempting to sell his health care ideas.  Unfortunately for him, in subsequent weeks the true facts of what was emerging from Congress stubbornly persisted in driving independent and moderate voters away from the President's position.

It appears that the President and his advisors are not reading the national mood correctly, inasmuch as moderate and independent voters are just not buying their version of more government intervention in the economy, skyrocketing deficits, and higher taxes.

The President's own pollsters and strategists completely missed the tsunami that was hitting NJ on November 3, as they confidently told media sources that Governor Corzine would be re-elected by 2-6 points.  The only person who had a worse day last Wednesday than Jon Corzine was Joel Benenson, the President's pollster, who had to report to the President why he completely missed an 8-10 point swing, and why he was wrong to advise the President to put his prestige on the line (again) for a Sunday appearance before the election.

In NJ, Obama has lately enjoyed only a 1:1 approval ratio among independent voters.  And this in a state which gave him a 15 point victory just one year ago.  It is evidence that the direction the national Democrats are heading may be too extreme for mainstream public opinion in this country.

Republicans all over the country should certainly hope that the Obama advisors and national Democrats continue to ignore the warning signs from moderates and independents, and continue to pursue policies that are turning off centrist voters.  If 2010 is anything like 2009, it will be a good year for Republicans all over America.

Tags:

majority?

Submitted by enoch_needles on November 9, 2009 - 1:06pm.

"to forge the largest electoral majority for a state Republican since Tom Kean in 1985."

Christie: 49%
Corzine: 45%
Daggett:6%

A plurality maybe, but 49% is not a majority. Depending on how you look at it (or spin it or whatever), a majority voted against Christie and a majority voted against Corzine (and yes, a majority voted against Daggett).

The point is, if a skin of the teeth victory like this is considered a "large electoral majority", then NJ schools are not teaching math correctly. Semantics, yes. Math, no.

"Republicans all over the

Submitted by Florio2013 on November 9, 2009 - 10:47pm.

"Republicans all over the country should certainly hope that the Obama advisors and national Democrats continue to ignore the warning signs from moderates and independents, and continue to pursue policies that are turning off centrist voters."

Yeah, right. Just like the NY-23 congressional district which hadn't elected a Democrat to Congress since 1884.

I wonder if those same independent and "centrist" voters will stick with Christie when he has to cut back or eliminate the services and benefits they receive.

Oh Pul-eeze.

Submitted by NorthernLight on November 9, 2009 - 10:51pm.

How silly can you get? Mickey Mouse could have been the Republican candidate and the result would have been about the same. The real winner on election day was "Not Corzine" That's it, That's all. Don't make the mistake of thinking it was anything more then that. Christie was in the right place at the right time. Hopefully he'll use his time wisely instead of believing pap like this and make something of this opportunity.

Blah blah blah

Submitted by truthout on November 11, 2009 - 5:44pm.

Christie won because more people hated Corzine than hated him. Simple as that. You're going to have to try some other brown-nosing to get that job you want in his cabinet.

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Submitted by britney000 on November 19, 2009 - 6:48am.

I thought President Obama had started to turn around his free-fall in public opinion Ultimate Acai Max Ultimate Acai max

I agree with diarist

Submitted by sandbox on November 22, 2009 - 12:57pm.

With Christie election in NJ we could be seeing the center/right coalition making a comeback.

Big Blue

Submitted by steven_tiny on November 22, 2009 - 3:41pm.

in context it is huge. beat back a major dem gotv from unions and obama . cc killed it.

Sycophant

Submitted by commish on December 29, 2009 - 11:45am.

I read this guy Jeff Michaels. Whoever he is, and a sycophant has to be pointed out. In earlier articles he talked about how Chris Christie was a great man. Now we know how you got whatever job you had in politics. It is the sycophantic hangers on that create these egomaniacal politicians. Chrisite won Monmouth and Ocean and lost the rest of the state. Clearly not a mandate. Even so, he has to put his money where his mouth is. He has a lot of people on his transition team that are looking for government handouts. Real estate executives and roads and bridges contractors. Pass a serious pay to play law and don't provide no bid contracts to your buddies and you are off to a good start. Don't do that and you will quickly lose the great man moniker your sycophants bestowed on you. Either way, without Connors, Adler has a real chance. Why did you stop arguing that Pallone might have a race?????

Obama has been bothered about

Submitted by milanp on December 30, 2009 - 5:39am.

Obama has been bothered about credit line. The credit and lending industry is intertwined with all others, as credit and financing are necessary to operate any industry and the same for individuals. TransUnion, the credit rating agency, has been tracking data from credit card delinquencies and defaults, and trying to paint a picture, as well as many other agencies, firms, think tanks and so forth, as to when the finance industry will have recovered. For now, it appears it will take longer than expected, and that the sooner more people resume employment, the easier installment loans for things like homes and cars will be to obtain.

Wake-Up Call

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