The National Climate

Early in the year, when President Obama enjoyed a strong honeymoon upon Inauguration, it appeared that the new national mood would be a strong wind at Governor Corzine's back.

As the year went on, however, especially in late summer, rising public discontent with ObamaCare brought President Obama's approval ratings back down to earth.  Town hall meetings across the country, even in blue Jersey, served as barometers of a restless public mood.  Indeed in some NJ polls, independent voters were evenly divided on the President's job approval, a stunning drop from just months earlier.

However, I believe that the President's effort to use his popularity to re-frame the health care debate has paid off.  His address to Congress, his ubiquitous appearances on news interviews and late-night programs, and a more aggressive and sharper defense of his programs from allies and Congressional Democrats has aided, in my opinion, a more favorable political climate for Democrats then one month ago.  While NJ's economy  may not be improving, the recent increases in the stock market, and improving national indicators will serve to boost the public mood.

This trend bodes well for the Governor's re-election campaign, as it comes on the heels of a well-concerted and smartly-executed earned media and paid advertising campaign to discredit his GOP challenger, Chris Christie.

As we have written before, the Governor's campaign's overall objective is to make Christie unacceptable as an alternative to just enough voters, especially moderate suburban voters, that the Democratic Party's natural advantages in voter registration and turnout cannot be overcome.

The Governor's campaign seems to have found its stride of late, deftly using the power of incumbency to make positive governmental announcements (charter schools, South Jersey Port), and mixing them with pointed earned media attacks on his opponent, on both character and issue-related subjects.

The path for victory in NJ for a Republican is narrow indeed, especially against an opponent with an unlimited advertising budget.  The challenge for the Christie campaign is to fend off and respond to attacks, while at the same time trying to keep the election a referendum on the incumbent and the pocketbook issue of taxes and the economy.

To the extent that the national climate is improving for President Obama, that task becomes even harder.