The First Debate

It is more than 2 weeks away, but I believe the first gubernatorial debate of the general election on October 1st looms large as a potential turning point in the race.

In contests for open seats, debates do little more than reinforce partisan allegiances.  Absent a knock-out punch by one of the candidates, they usually don't move independent or undecided voters to any considerable degree.

In close incumbent races,  however, debates can strongly boost challengers.  On the national level, in 1980, Ronald Reagan started breaking away from incumbent President Carter when voters saw for themselves an "acceptable" alternative to an unpopular incumbent, one who was genial, friendly, and unlikely to fit the stereotype that was being painted of him by the Democratic campaign.

Likewise, JFK's performance against incumbent Vice-President Richard Nixon in the first televised Presidential debate in 1960 was an important ingredient in JFK's strategy of convincing the public he was of "presidential" timbre.  By most accounts, he won the debate among those who watched it on TV, as he compared favorably with Nixon.

The October 1st  debate is important because it will be the first time that incumbent Governor Corzine is exposed to the electorate without the benefit - and crutch - of being shielded by his overwhelming personal bank account advantage.  He will have to face his foes man to man, on the same stage, answering the same questions.

While the race appears to be tightening, challenger Chris Christie seems to hold significant cards.  For one, it is very rare for an incumbent to be re-elected when he polls less than 40 percent so close to the election.  In no public poll has Governor Corzine's share topped 40 percent, in a head-to-head matchup.

Second, the Governor lags Christie by at least 10 points in their own share of their respective political bases.  So while Christie is getting close to 90 percent of Republicans, the Governor is consistently polling under 80 percent of Democrats.  If this continues, Christie will win, because Corzine's underperfomance in his base negates the Democrats' natural voter registration and turnout advantage, and Independent voters, who are overwhelmingly for Christie, will provide his margin of victory.

The GOP challenger will do well in the debate if he:

1.      Reinforces what voters have liked about him.  In politics, the old expression goes, you must "dance with those who brung you to the dance."  What brought Christie to the dance was a well-earned reputation as a no-nonsense corruption-buster who took on the corrupt powerful and brought them to justice.  This is a strength of Christie's that while tarnished somewhat by unforced errors and millions in negative advertising, is still a powerful rationale for his candidacy, and is what is keeping him strong with his Republican base and Independents.  He should use the debate to remind voters of this record.

2.      Contrasts With Corzine.  The election is all about the incumbent.  Contrast the Governor's accommodation of the culture of corruption with your own record.  But stay focused on the pocketbook issues of the economy and taxes.

3.      Be specific.  While a debate is not a policy lecture, it is an opportunity to explain to voters that you have a rational, reasonable set of specific ideas to deal with the most important issues - the economy and taxes. 

4.      Be Yourself.  A relaxed, confident challenger will always score points (Kennedy, Reagan), and most important, will allow voters to see the real person, not the worst stereotypes Goldman Sachs money can buy.