Who really won the summer?

Today's Quinnipiac poll follows recent independent surveys (even Democratic ones) showing the same thing - Chris Christie has not relinquished his lead over Governor Jon Corzine.

Despite a 10:1 spending advantage, and weeks of non-stop negative news stories about his challenger, the Governor has not yet broken into the 40's, and continues to trail his opponent.

The Governor's ubiquitous negative advertising has apparently raised Chris Christie's negative ratings, but have done nothing to move any voters other than hard-core Democrats into the Corzine camp. 

At some point, does this advertising cease to be helpful?  In a recent Quinnipiac poll in New York City, by a margin of 59-31, NYC voters think the massive Mike Bloomberg re-election media campaign is more "annoying" than informative.

While he is leading his opponent, his ads are starting to be perceived as "overkill" by voters. 

Could this be happening in New Jersey, especially for a Governor who is trailing his opponent and not as well-liked as Mayor Bloomberg?

It's happened before, not coincidentally perhaps, to Jon Corzine.  In August, 2000, according to the Quinnipiac poll at the time, Corzine led his opponent, Bob Franks by 7 points, while Al Gore was leading George Bush by 14 points.

On Election Day, Gore won by the same 14 points, but Corzine squeaked a bare margin of less than 3 points.  Corzine spent $65 million to win that Senate seat, against Franks' $5 million, and there was Corzine-fatigue among voters at the magnitude of the advertising.

One might say that Corzine's team in 2000 lost the campaign, because they started with a lead, and out-spent their opponent $65 million to $ 5 million, yet still needed Gore's coattails to eke out a win.

Christie is not out of the woods by any means.  Indeed, his increased negative ratings put the Governor in a position to be perceived as the lesser of two evils, if the Governor's campaign plays its cards correctly, which apparently is the only strategy left to him.

What of the Christie campaign? First, he would do well to remain true to himself and the message that won him a contested primary, and has earned him a solid lead, despite the odds.

He and his team should always listen to good ideas and advice, but not pay too much attention to "observers" like Paul Mulshine, who does more every day to elect Jon Corzine than Jamie Fox, or to former GOP elected officials who hitched their star to the wagon of Chris's primary opponent and never got off as that wagon went into the ditch.

He should continue to present himself as an honest, strong leader who is unafraid to make the tough decisions to get New Jersey back on the right track.