Jeff Michaels's Blog

The NJ gubernatorial election result demonstrates that Governor-elect Chris Christie resurrected the center-right voter coalition of Republicans, Independents, and conservative and moderate Democrats that has always produced Republican victories.  Even Christie Whitman failed to do this in both her elections for Governor.

Christie was able to hold social conservatives on the right, but appeal on economic grounds to moderates and independents, to forge the largest electoral majority for a state Republican since Tom Kean in 1985.

Indeed the new Christie Majority cuts across both parties, and all regions of the state.  While several GOP-leaning counties produced eye-popping numbers (Ocean and Monmouth), Christie's win was not a regional one.  It was a state-wide phenomenon.  The new Governor won Middlesex and Gloucester counties, and came closer than expected in places like Union county.

Governor-elect Christopher J. Christie.  How sweet it is for the thousands of volunteers who worked since February to support this great man for NJ Governor.  I am proud to be one of them.

Congratulations go to him and to his wife Mary Pat and terrific family.  Also congratulations to Lt Governor-elect Kim Guadagno on her election.  Her stellar performance on the campaign trail was a major asset to the Governor-elect, and proved his good judgment in choosing her.

When Gov-elect Christie was named US Attorney, most observers ignored his call that public corruption would be a major priority of his office.  This is Jersey, after all, where pay-to-play and apparently other seedier behaviors were standard operating procedure in many communities.

Early in the year, when President Obama enjoyed a strong honeymoon upon Inauguration, it appeared that the new national mood would be a strong wind at Governor Corzine's back.

As the year went on, however, especially in late summer, rising public discontent with ObamaCare brought President Obama's approval ratings back down to earth.  Town hall meetings across the country, even in blue Jersey, served as barometers of a restless public mood.  Indeed in some NJ polls, independent voters were evenly divided on the President's job approval, a stunning drop from just months earlier.

However, I believe that the President's effort to use his popularity to re-frame the health care debate has paid off.  His address to Congress, his ubiquitous appearances on news interviews and late-night programs, and a more aggressive and sharper defense of his programs from allies and Congressional Democrats has aided, in my opinion, a more favorable political climate for Democrats then one month ago.  While NJ's economy  may not be improving, the recent increases in the stock market, and improving national indicators will serve to boost the public mood.

You have to admire the sheer chutzpah and brazenness of the Democratic Party, both here in NJ and nationally.  As a former political operative and current armchair junkie, I admire and bow-down to the inventiveness and creativity with which this political organization and the people who lead it seek, obtain, and hold onto governmental power.  They literally change the rules of the game.  It takes your breath away.  Democrats rule !!

When Republican Mitt Romney was Governor of Massachusetts, the Democratic Legislature changed state law to deny the Governor the right under then-current law to appoint a replacement to a vacant US Senate seat, in the event then-Senator Kerry got elected President in 2004.   The rationale was that a special election should be held, not a gubernatorial appointment.  Now that the Governor is a Democrat, the same Legislature will be reversing itself to eliminate the special election and allow for a gubernatorial appointment, to replace the deceased Sen Ted Kennedy.

All with a straight face.

It is more than 2 weeks away, but I believe the first gubernatorial debate of the general election on October 1st looms large as a potential turning point in the race.

In contests for open seats, debates do little more than reinforce partisan allegiances.  Absent a knock-out punch by one of the candidates, they usually don't move independent or undecided voters to any considerable degree.

In close incumbent races,  however, debates can strongly boost challengers.  On the national level, in 1980, Ronald Reagan started breaking away from incumbent President Carter when voters saw for themselves an "acceptable" alternative to an unpopular incumbent, one who was genial, friendly, and unlikely to fit the stereotype that was being painted of him by the Democratic campaign.

Likewise, JFK's performance against incumbent Vice-President Richard Nixon in the first televised Presidential debate in 1960 was an important ingredient in JFK's strategy of convincing the public he was of "presidential" timbre.  By most accounts, he won the debate among those who watched it on TV, as he compared favorably with Nixon.

The October 1st  debate is important because it will be the first time that incumbent Governor Corzine is exposed to the electorate without the benefit - and crutch - of being shielded by his overwhelming personal bank account advantage.  He will have to face his foes man to man, on the same stage, answering the same questions.

While the race appears to be tightening, challenger Chris Christie seems to hold significant cards.  For one, it is very rare for an incumbent to be re-elected when he polls less than 40 percent so close to the election.  In no public poll has Governor Corzine's share topped 40 percent, in a head-to-head matchup.

Second, the Governor lags Christie by at least 10 points in their own share of their respective political bases.  So while Christie is getting close to 90 percent of Republicans, the Governor is consistently polling under 80 percent of Democrats.  If this continues, Christie will win, because Corzine's underperfomance in his base negates the Democrats' natural voter registration and turnout advantage, and Independent voters, who are overwhelmingly for Christie, will provide his margin of victory.

The GOP challenger will do well in the debate if he:

Today's Quinnipiac poll follows recent independent surveys (even Democratic ones) showing the same thing - Chris Christie has not relinquished his lead over Governor Jon Corzine.

Despite a 10:1 spending advantage, and weeks of non-stop negative news stories about his challenger, the Governor has not yet broken into the 40's, and continues to trail his opponent.

The Governor's ubiquitous negative advertising has apparently raised Chris Christie's negative ratings, but have done nothing to move any voters other than hard-core Democrats into the Corzine camp. 

At some point, does this advertising cease to be helpful?  In a recent Quinnipiac poll in New York City, by a margin of 59-31, NYC voters think the massive Mike Bloomberg re-election media campaign is more "annoying" than informative.

While he is leading his opponent, his ads are starting to be perceived as "overkill" by voters. 

Could this be happening in New Jersey, especially for a Governor who is trailing his opponent and not as well-liked as Mayor Bloomberg?

Is it possible that the revelation about Chris Christie's loan to a colleague in his office has re-shuffled the chess-board of the gubernatorial election?

There can be no doubt that any week a campaign is on defense is a bad week for that campaign.  While the earlier revelation from Karl Rove that he had conversations with Christie were trumpeted by his opponents as something nefarious, it had the ring of true inside baseball uninteresting to voters outside the realm of political junkiedom (a politician running for office today might have talked to someone about it? yawn).

The loan gives the Corzine campaign more ammunition, inasmuch as Christie admitted that he made a mistake (albeit worth all of $400), in not reporting it and the pittance of the income it generated.  And it is the second "un-forced error" of the Christie campaign.

One of the notable developments in New Jersey statewide government and politics in recent years, becoming acute in 2009, is the evisceration of traditional journalism that has covered NJ's statehouse and state-wide politics.

New Jersey residents used to have many opportunities to get news about their state government and state-wide campaigns.  New Jersey's flagship state newspaper was the Star-Ledger, but residents in every region had their own strong, independent regional daily newspapers, covering state-wide news.  The Atlantic City Press, Camden Courier-Post, Trenton Times, Home News Tribune, Somerset Courier News, the Bergen Record, at one time not too long ago had veteran reporters in the Statehouse.

Today's statehouse news media is a shadow of its former self. 

Why does it matter?  It is clear that as state government and politics has gotten more complex, the opportunities for average people to understand it from credible, unbiased sources, is diminishing fast.

Sad news last week - it's official that Sarah Palin resigned as Governor of Alaska, presumably to attempt to burnish her leadership credentials at the national level.  This means we will have to suffer her pretensions to the national Republican leadership, and be constantly reminded of the bone-headed move by the McCain campaign to select her as Vice-Presidential candidate in 2008.

Some are comparing Palin's exit from the Alaska stage to Richard Nixon's self-described "final" press conference after losing the California Governorship in 1962, telling assembled media they would not have Nixon to "kick around anymore."  He was elected President of the United States 6 years later.

Her media-bashing is the only thing she has in common with Nixon.  By 1962, Nixon was a former Congressman, US Senator, 2-term Vice-President of the United States, candidate for President, and candidate for Governor.

The tidal wave unleashed this week by the FBI and the US Attorney's Office across New Jersey will likely re-calibrate the campaign for Governor.  While the corruption did not touch the Governor personally in any way, the investigation of his DCA Commissioner and the arrest of the protégé of his long-time counselor and advisor Angelo Genova are certainly too close for comfort, and re-set the general election campaign in terms unfavorable for the Democrats.

It is true that Governor Corzine's approval ratings, favorable standing, and ballot strength were all at all time lows, according to all independent public opinion polls.  It is also true that the Governor received no apparent "bounce" from the visit last week by President Obama.  The latest Strategic Vision poll after the visit showed an even stronger Christie lead.

But it is also true that the Governor's spending of his vast personal wealth on early negative advertising had an opportunity to tilt the playing field to his advantage, as his opponent could not match him dollar for dollar.

The Governor has spent in excess of $4 million since the primary for this purpose.