Inside Edge
November 4, 2009 - 2:06am
INSIDE EDGE

Ocean and Monmouth are the new Essex and Hudson

Chris Christie won Ocean County by more than Jon Corzine won Essex, and he won Monmouth by more than Corzine won Hudson.  Combined, Christie carried the two shore counties by 134,267 votes, while Corzine carried the two Democratic machine counties by 115,783.  Christie won a third Democratic machine county, Middlesex, by 5,000 votes. 

Christie won five western New Jersey counties by about 130,000 votes - including a 45,000 vote win in his home county, Morris, which delivered a greater plurality than Corzine won in Newark.  (In 2005, Corzine won Newark by more than Douglas Forrester won Morris.)

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November 4, 2009 - 12:39am
INSIDE EDGE

GOP picks up one Assembly seat; Democrats will control lower house 47-33

Republicans picked up one State Assembly seat, in the fourth district.  Domenick DeCicco captured the open seat of retiring Assemblywoman Sandra Love.  DeCicco won by 1,021 votes over Democrat Bill Collins.  That sets up a possible 2011 Senate race between DeCicco and Democratic incumbent Frederick Madden, or if Madden doesn't seek re-election, against Democratic Assemblyman Paul Moriarty.

The Republican challenger who came the closest to ousting a Democratic incumbent was in District 3, where Dr. Robert Villare lost to Assemblywoman Celeste Riley by 1,021 votes.   State Republicans wrote off Villare after the two candidates they backed in the primary lost.  In District 22, former Scotch Plains Mayor Martin Marks came within 1,857 votes of ousting Assemblyman Gerald Green.

Democrats won handily in two districts where the Republicans thought they had the best chance.  In District 1, Assemblymen Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam beat Republicans Michael Donohue and John McCann.  Donohue trailed Milam by 2,045 votes, and McCann lost to Albano by 5,469 votes.  In District 36, Frederick Scalera and Gary Schaer won by nearly 5,000 votes.

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November 3, 2009 - 9:58pm
INSIDE EDGE

In the end, Daggett didn't matter

Former state Environmental Protection Commissioner Christopher Daggett has conceded defeat in his independent bid for Governor.  With about five percent of the vote, Daggett's much-heralded run for governor was entirely unsuccessful: it looks as though his total statewide vote will be less than the difference between Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Christopher Christie.

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November 3, 2009 - 8:09pm

Senator Pallone?

Worth noting: the Corzine campaign put U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone on TV as their spokesman early this evening - at least an indication that Gov. Jon Corzine might prefer the Monmouth County congressman if a U.S. Senate seat were to open up.  Also worth noting: if Corzine loses his re-election bid, Christopher Christie would appoint a Republican to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy.

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November 3, 2009 - 7:30pm
INSIDE EDGE

Exit polls: voters motivated by opposition to a candidate

Exit polls conducted by major news organizations indicated that one-third of New Jersey voters  voted against a candidate rather than for him; 20% of Gov. Jon Corzine's supporters and 42% of people who voted for Republican Christopher Christie say that they were voting more against the opponent then for their candidate.  More than seven out of ten voters (72%) called Corzine's attacks on Christie unfair, but 62% also acknowledged Christie's attacks on the incumbent governor. 

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November 3, 2009 - 7:19pm
INSIDE EDGE

Exit polls: Obama endorsement didn't impact decision

Six out of ten New Jersey voters said that President Barack Obama was not a factor in their vote for governor, according to exit polls conducted by a consortium of major news organizations.  Among voters who said Obama's support guided them, 19% said he pushed them to Gov. Jon Corzine, and 20% said he helped them decide to vote for someone else.

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November 3, 2009 - 12:31pm
INSIDE EDGE

Stop the presses

Here's some breaking news: Democrats and Republicans are both reporting that their GOTV operations are going according to plan. Both say their exceeding their goals.  Everyone's optimistic.

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November 3, 2009 - 10:41am
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Consensus?

There are a few things strategists from both sides agree on already about today's election:

1. The race for Governor is too close to call.  Each sides remains optimistic, but Democrats won't be shocked if Republican Christopher Christie ends the day as governor-elect, and Republicans won't be terribly surprised if Democrat Jon Corzine wins re-election.  Corzine is an unpopular governor running in bad economic times, but he has spent enough of his own money driving up Christie's negatives to close the gap.  Democrats knew four months ago that Corzine could not win re-election, but that he could cause Christie to lose.  New Jersey is perhaps the most Democratic state in the nation - Republicans haven't won here since 1997 (since then, 49 other states have had GOP statewide victories - and Corzine has spent enough to drive Christie's negatives way up.  Barack Obama made three trips to New Jersey - including one on Sunday - and Corzine's Democratic base vote problem appears to be gone. 

2. The presence of Lt. Governor candidates on the ballot for the first time turned out to be a non-event.  It's Election Day, and most voters have never heard of Loretta Weinberg or Kim Guadagno.  In the end, call it even: Guadagno won a little-watched TV debate, and Weinberg was the deciding factor in The Record's decision to endorse Corzine. 3.  There will be little, if any, change in the State Assembly.  All eight seats are up, but only two are seriously contested: Democratic Assemblymen Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam in District 1.  The consensus among insiders is a split - Albano and Republican Michael Donohue win - but it could easily be a sweep by Republicans (if Christie builds up huge pluralities against Corzine in Cape May) or by Democrats, who have outspend the GOP 3-1.  If there are any upsets, look at Districts 4, 22 and 36.  But incumbents are clearly the favorites, and there is little doubt that Democrats will control the lower house next year.

4. There is an expectation that the $400 million open space bond referendum will be a casualty of bad economic times.

5.  Republicans, Democrats concede, are the favorites in their bid to recapture control of the Monmouth County Board of Freeholders. Democrats are also increasingly unenthusiastic about their chances of taking control of the Burlington Freeholder Board.  Look for Atlantic to stay Republican and Salem to stay Democratic.  In Bergen County, the GOP has a shot to oust Democratic Freeholder Vernon Walton; Democrats are worried about losing a seat or three in Cumberland.

6. Two incumbent County Clerks have the edge in tough re-election bids: Gloria Noto in Cumberland and Gilda Gill in Salem.  Both are Republicans.

7.  Best mayoral races in the state are in Gloucester Township, Parsippany, Edison and Hammonton: in Gloucester Township, GOP incumbent Cindy Rau-Hatton faces Democrat David Mayer, a former Assemblyman; in Parsippany, Democratic Mayor Michael Luther faces Republican Councilman Jamie Barberio; and in Edison, where Democrats ousted incumbent Jun Choi in the primary, Councilwoman Toni Ricigliano faces Republican Dennis Purpura, who has forged a coalition with Choi Democrats and won the endorsement of the Home News Tribune.

8. The key to Election '09 will be the performance of independent Christopher Daggett.  Daggett will get more votes that the number that separate Corzine and Christie, but neither side is certain who he has hurt more.  Daggett won't be governor, but his presence in the race could determine who is.   Democrats and Republicans say Daggett gets less than 10%.

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November 3, 2009 - 9:10am
INSIDE EDGE

Legislative election results, town-by-town

Election results for legislative races in 2007 and 2005:

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