Guarino campaign releases poll
By Matt Friedman, PolitickerNJ.com ReporterDistrict 36 may not be such a long shot for Republicans, according to one GOP campaign consultant.
Republican consultant Rick Shaftan, who’s running Mike Guarino’s campaign for the 36th district state Senate seat against Democratic incumbent Paul Sarlo, just released a poll that shows Guarino trailing Sarlo by 17 points. It would be a discouraging spread for someone considered a serious contender, perhaps, but it's cause for optimism for Guarino, who at 78 became the Republican nominee after earning enough write-in votes.
The poll of 270 likely 36th district voters shows Sarlo ahead of Guarino, 46.5% to 29%. On a question focusing solely on Sarlo’s tenure, 38% of respondents hoped to reelect him, while 33.2% wanted to elect someone new.
If Republicans are going to take down Sarlo, they’ll need to tie him closely with Gov. Corzine and his tax policies, according to the poll. Shaftan found that Corzine had a 37% favorability rating, with 32% unfavorable and 21% with mixed feelings. If accurate, this provides a striking contrast with Corzine’s statewide approval rating, measured last month at 50%, according to last month’s Fairleigh Dickinson University poll.
“The real thing here is that you have a bellwether district, Corzine doesn’t walk on water, his incumbent’s overrated, and I think that when you get into these key districts rather than looking at statewide numbers you’ll find Corzine has very big negatives,” said Shaftan.
Taxes are by far the dominant issue in the race, said Shaftan, who thinks that voters will be disappointed and ultimately disenchanted with Corzine’s promised property tax relief. Shaftan is betting that the tax issues, combined with Corzine’s controversial monetization plan, could drive the Governor’s popularity further down in the district. In other words, the Republicans need to associate Sarlo with Corzine if there is to be any chance of a Guarino victory.
“There’s absolutely a fight. It’s a competitive race. And if the turnpike issue arises more, that generic ballot is going to tighten substantially,” said Shaftan. “Corzine’s got some big, serious political problems, and anybody who’s identified with Corzine and his taxes will lose.”
But Chris Eilert, Sarlo’s Chief of Staff, did not take the poll seriously, saying that the numbers did not look realistic.
“The poll is laughable. It’s nothing more than a publicity stunt by a desperate campaign that even Republican leaders don’t support,” said Eilert. “The people of district 36 support Paul Sarlo because of his record of providing millions of dollars in property tax relief and fighting to improve quality of life issues.”
Guarino’s campaign is still, by most accounts, a long shot. While the numbers may look somewhat promising for such an unknown candidate with very little money, Sarlo has yet to even start campaigning, said David Rebovich, Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics and PoliticsNJ.com contributor.
“Once the campaign kicks in and Sarlo starts to refer to himself as the guy working hard for you in Trenton, that can counterbalance some of the criticisms made by the republicans,” said Rebovich.
Guarino’s motivation to run was his opposition to Bergen County’s troubled EnCap development project and all politicians who support it. But aside from the opportunity to pick up a seat district 36, Republicans may have a more realistic motivation, say observers – to keep Sarlo’s war chest, which according to the latest filings available online amounts to a little under $600,000, from finding its way to more embattled Democratic candidates.
“Certainly Republicans are looking for candidates to carry the party banner and run serious campaigns in as many districts as possible so that there is less wheeling or channeling of campaign funds to help the vulnerable, or to help democrats in areas where they might pick up seats in south jersey,” said Rebovich.
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Survey Memo
MEMORANDUM
TO: District 36 Campaign
FROM: Rick Shaftan, Neighborhood Research
RE: Survey, Senate Race
DATE: 7/2/07
Neighborhood Research completed 270 surveys of District 36 voters who had participated in either the 2005 or 2006 general elections or both. 207 of the respondents had voted in both elections. The theoretical margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 5.9% in 95% of cases.
Surveys were completed between June 11 and June 13, 2007.
SARLO REELECT
Re-elect Regardless
ALL: 22.6%
VOTED 05 & 06: 23.3%
Consider Others
ALL: 17.5%
VOTED 05 & 06: 14.7%
TOTAL REELECT
ALL: 40.1%
VOTED 05 & 06: 38.0%
Want Someone New
ALL: 33.1%
VOTED 05 & 06: 33.2%
Margin
ALL: +7.0%
VOTED 05 & 06: +4.8%
BALLOT TEST
Paul Sarlo (D) - Mike Guarino (R)
ALL: 46.3% - 27.3%
VOTED 05 & 06: 46.5% - 29.0%
GENERIC BALLOT
Democratic - Republican
ALL: 41.4% - 32.2%
VOTED 05 & 06: 42.1% - 33.6%
NAME ID (Favorable/Unfavorable/Mixed/ID)
Corzine
ALL: 38-29-21-100
VOTED 05 & 06: 37-32-21-100
Sarlo
ALL: 31-12- 4- 90
VOTED 05 & 06: 32-13- 4- 92
Guarino
ALL: 7- 2- 1- 43
VOTED 05 & 06: 8- 2- 1- 43
SUMMARY
Paul Sarlo is an overrated incumbent with double digit negatives. He is barely at 40% in the “re-elect” question and wins it by just eight points. Among those who voted in each of the last two elections, this lead drops to 38-33. Only 23 percent of voters would re-elect Sarlo regardless of his opponent.
Governor Corzine has low favorables and high negatives, particularly with the most likely voters. His favorables are built around an image of a smart businessman. His negatives revolve around a feeling that he has lied in his promises to cut taxes on working people. There is a general perception that Corzine feels he is better than everyone else and many voters resent this.
The 36th is a conservative district and politically competitive. Paul Sarlo could lose this election if Republicans can tie him to McGreevey, Codey and Corzine’s massive tax hikes, all of which he has supported, as well as local property tax increases.
Taxes dominate as the top issue and the only thing separating Republicans from victory here and elsewhere in the state this year is their inability to control the tax issue. Voters are disillusioned and looking for change. Republicans have yet to show voters that they represent change and cannot win here until they do.
Guarino’s 7-2 favorable/unfavorable compares positively with Garry Furnari’s 9-4 rating in August of 1997. Furnari ultimately beat incumbent John Scott, whose 29-14 favorable unfavorable in the same survey is strikingly close to Sarlo’s numbers today.
Guarino’s 43 percent ID is six points higher than Furnari’s 36 percent in August 1997. Scott led Furnari 46-33 in that survey, although Furnari later won 53-47. Compare that with Sarlo’s 46-27 lead here.
TAXES THE #1 AND ONLY PROBLEM
59% of voters and 64% of those who voted in both 2005 and 2006 say that high taxes are the number one problem facing New Jersey. However, Democrats lead 40-31 on the generic ballot with voters mentioning high taxes -- virtually the same as the 41-32 lead overall. Republicans need to take control of the tax issue in order to succeed here and elsewhere in 2007.
VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF THE STATE DIRECTION
By a 42-43 margin, 39-45 with 2 of 2 voters, respondents say New Jersey is going in the wrong direction. However Republicans have not yet capitalized on this. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 67-18 among those voters who say New Jersey is going in the right direction while Republicans lead by only 50-18 among those who see the state as off on the wrong track.
Voters who are undecided in the generic ballot say New Jersey is off on the wrong track by a 24-52 margin. Republicans have not yet shown disillusioned voters that they are a positive alternative.
THE 36TH IS A CONSERVATIVE DISTRICT
Conservatives outnumber liberals in this district by better than 2-1. Just 16 percent of all voters say they are liberal, 43 percent are moderate and 37 percent are conservative.
Democrats lead 80-0 with liberals in the generic ballot while Republicans lead just 57-19 with conservatives. Republicans need to increase their conservative margins to win this seat.
On issues, voters line up squarely on the right. By a 42-27 margin respondents were more likely to support a pro-Life candidate. By 47-41 they were more likely to back a candidate who would allow local police to enforce immigration laws and by 20-72 are less likely to support a candidate who supports in-state tuition for illegal aliens.
By a margin of 13-71, voters were less likely to support a candidate who endorsed building 5,000 apartment units in Meadowlands towns. By 11-77 they were less likely to support a candidate who voted for higher income and sales taxes to increase state government spending and by 12-80 less likely to support a candidate who backs raising gasoline taxes by 15 cents per gallon.
Voters also oppose a Corzine backed plan that create a new tax to pay for ten weeks of paid vacation annually for any worker who felt they needed it. Just 21 percent backed the Corzine “Paid Family Leave” plan while 68 percent opposed it.
77 percent of voters said state spending was too high. 3 percent said it was too low and 13 percent said it was about right.
CORZINE LIKES AND DISLIKES
When asked what they liked most about Corzine, 16 percent of his favorables said he was honest, 16 percent said he is doing a great job in office, 12 percent like his financial background, 11 percent said he is a no-nonsense guy, 10 percent say he is trying to do the right thing, 5 percent say he gets things done, 5 percent say he is a good guy, 5 percent say he is lowering taxes. 3 percent say the following: balanced budget, smart, new ideas. 2 percent say he cares.
Among those unfavorable to the Governor, 19 percent dislike that he raised taxes, 13 percent say he broke his campaign promises, 12 percent say he is doing a bad job in office, 10 percent mentioned the seat belt issue, 8 percent said he has done nothing, 6 percent say he does not care about working people, 5 percent say he is a big spender, 3 percent say he is a Democrat, a jerk, too influenced by big money and sneaky. No one said he was corrupt.
Currently, 48 percent of voters know Corzine is a liberal, but 38 percent think he is moderate and 7 percent actually believe him to be conservative.
Republicans must increase Corzine’s liberal identification. Corzine is 27-50 net negative with those who say he is liberal versus 50-7 among those who say he is moderate. Republicans lead 44-34 in the generic ballot with those who say he is liberal and lose 58-18 with those who say he is moderate.
SARLO LIKES AND DISLIKES
19 percent of Sarlo favorables say is doing a good job as Senator. 16 percent say he works hard and gets things done, 13 percent say he is a good guy, 11 percent say he is honest, 6 percent find him helpful. 5 percent say he is a good Mayor, 4 percent say he is approachable, 4 percent heard nothing bad about him.
Among Sarlo unfavorables, 28 percent say he has done nothing, 25 percent say he is pro-EnCap, 9 percent say he is a Democrat, 6 percent mention his two jobs, 6 percent say he associates with bad people. No one mentioned his votes for taxes. Sarlo cannot lose as long as he remains unlinked to the McGreevey-Codey-Corzine tax increase record.
Like Corzine, Sarlo’s numbers tumble once he is identified with his liberal ideology. Right now just 17 percent say Sarlo is liberal, 25 percent say he is moderate and 7 percent call him conservative. Sarlo is 57-9 favorable with those who see him as moderate or conservative versus 33-33 with those who see him as liberal.
CONCLUSION
Paul Sarlo does not have a “safe” seat. After raising income, sales, gasoline and other taxes under Governors McGreevey, Codey and Corzine, Sarlo needs to stay away from the tax issue at all costs. Sarlo must also avoid an association with an increasingly unpopular Governor who is seen as a tax raising liberal distant from working families. Sarlo’s support for Meadowlands housing projects containing thousands of apartments is also a big negative. The only question is whether voters will ever learn of Sarlo’s views on these controversial and critical issues.
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impressive..but crazy
this guy's truly impressive..and crazy. Those numbers are bad considering Sarlo hasnt even started campaigning. But props to him for trying to take on a giant, it's something all state Republicans should back, even if this guy was a Democrat.
Shaftan Polls
If Shaftan's polls were ever even remotely accurate, then the NJ State legislature would be filled with Right Wing Conservatives.. who like to chase tornados!
Doesn't the fact Shaftan's Ballot Test show Sarlo at 46.3% (despite this poll's wide margin of error and not being able to reach 300 interviews), only 4% below the 50% +1 winning margin, especially this early in the campaign shows how slanted Shaftan's press release of Sarlo's vunerability is? Or is it a thinly veiled attempted at a "press release poll" designed to bring some credibility and money to this failed GOP campaign.
Guess Ricky overlooked that important and telling number of Sarlo already at 46%.