Quinnipiac: Corzine takes lead in race for governor
By Editor
A new Quinnipiac University poll has Gov. Jon Corzine with a five point lead, 43%-38%, over Republican Christopher Christie - Corzine's first lead in nearly a year - with independent Christopher Daggett at 13%.
Two weeks ago, Quinnipiac put Christie ahead, 41%-40%, with 14% for Daggett.
"You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over. Christopher Daggett changed it from ‘ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"
Corzine continues to have upside-down job approvals: 39%-54%; the governor has an upside-down 29%-68% approval rating among independents.
Christie has increased his lead among independents and is now ahead 45%-30%, six points better than two weeks ago, with Daggett getting 20% of independents. But Corzine has gained three points among Democrats and Christie has dropped four points among Republicans.
Nearly four out of ten Daggett voters (38%) say they may change their mind, with 43% saying Christie is their second choice and 27% indicating a preference for Corzine.
"Can Daggett win? More than two-thirds of New Jerseyans don't think so," Carroll added.
Corzine has turned the corner on the honest and trustworthy issue, with more voters (46%) saying he is than he isn't. Voters are also split on Christie, who is upside-down, with 37% saying he's honest and trustworthy and 39% saying he isn't. This is the first time this year that Corzine's score has been positive, and this is Christie's worst score yet.
Six out of ten voters (60%) say property taxes will go up during a second Corzine term, while 2% say they will go down and 34% believing they will remain the same. 37% of voters think property taxes will go up under Christie, 12% think they will go down, and 44% say they will stay the same.
Of the 90 percent of New Jersey voters who have seen Corzine's TV ads:
- 14% say the ads make them more likely to vote for the Governor;
- 31% say less likely;
- 54% say the ads won't affect their vote;
- 66% find the ads annoying;
- 29% say the ads are informative.
Of the 86 percent of New Jersey voters who have seen Christie's TV ads:
- 17% say the ads make them more likely to vote for the challenger;
- 28% say less likely;
- 53% say the ads won't affect their vote;
- 58% find the ads annoying;
- 35% say the ads are informative.
"The drumbeat of denunciation has dropped Christie down to Corzine's negative level in the favorable-unfavorable match. And it's produced a reversal on ‘honest and trustworthy.' Corzine comes out plus; Christie tips to a minus," Carroll said. "Everyone says negative advertising is bad, but everybody watches it. Virtually every New Jersey voter has seen the Corzine and Christie ads and most think that they're more annoying than informative."
Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,267 New Jersey likely voters between October 20-26, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.
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Make any sense?
Christie increased his lead among Indies from 9 points to 15 points and yet lost 6 overall points. Makes no sense....
Lonegan Voters Leaving Christie
"Corzine has gained three points among Democrats and Christie has dropped four points among Republicans."
AS I have been saying the 140,000 Lonegan primary voters are abandoning Christie and the exodus will continue.
Christie wanted no part of Lonegan and his supporters when he was ahead by 12 points. Now the Lonegan supporters are returning the favor.
It will be Lonegan's Party after next Wednesday. The Republican establishment has lost another one with their arrogance.
EVEN AT THIS LATE DATE CHRISITE REFUSES TO STAND WITH STEVE LONEGAN AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT!
140,000 Lonegan primary voters
Ridiculous, how do you know how all these people will vote? I was probably a bigger Lonegan supporter then you were but I can see the writing on the wall. You better get ur head out of ur azz and wake up realize the primary was decided in June, and if you help Corzine get re elected by staying home you are contributing to the destruction of NJ.
It is true you are not going get everything you want with Christie , but you will GET NOTHING from Corzine.
Vote for Christie and when if screws up an issue the conservatives feel strongly about in NJ. I will stand right there with you and tell him he is wrong,
But for God's sake, having Corzine get in again is better then Christie winning?
There is no logic to that if you truly want change in NJ
CHRISTIE WILL WIN!
Wow!!....Corzine finally is in the lead a little doesn't mean anything. Corzine is not being true to NJ as Chris Christie is. Chris chrisite is out talking to the voters personally not having big rallies trying to hide his record by getting big candidates in coming in. New Jersey needs a new direction. Yes, Corzine has done quite a job but not enough and with CHrisite as a new governor, NJ can get back on track. Chris Christie is for all New Jerseyans.www.chrisitefornj,com
JSC
JSC over CC by 3 to 5
hahahhaha
Even cheating the dems can't come up with that many votes.
People realize Daggett can't win and will go to Christie on Election day.
Corzine is despised by 50% of the voters, you can't change that in 6 days...
All Turnout
If Turnout Models are right, if Christie can stay within striking range in Passaic, Middlesex, Bergen, and Union, and slightly improve in Camden, Mercer, Essex and Hudson from previous races, I think the turnout in Ocean, Monmouth, Morris et. al will propel him into office.
Prediction as of right now:
Chris Christie (R): 1,014,685 46%
Jon Corzine (D): 968,488 43.9%
Others (Including Daggett):
221,977 10.1%
I did an indepth 21 county analysis to reach this number. I'm assuming Christie loses Essex and Hudson by a total of 80,000 combined.
Independents and Lonegan supporters
I agree with each of your comments, gorednj and PC517.
First off, I find it interesting that Christie has increased his numbers with Independents but his numbers among the GOP have fallen while Corzine's numbers with Democrats have solidifiied.
However, from what I've read in any number of paces, everyone agrees that this election will be decided by the Independents - and Christie clearly has the lead here.
The two polls that came out yesterday had him a few points up and he's been ahead in 48 out of 55 polls. I would take this with a grain of salt. Obviously the negative attack ads Corzine is running have worked, but it still hasn't brought his own disapproval ratings below 50%. That's really something to consider going into Election Day.
As for the Lonegan factor, I continue to find it puzzling that some Republicans would consider either staying home or voting for Daggett over voting for Christie.
I was recently talking to a friend who backed Lonegan in the primary. She doesn't follow politics as closely as I do, but loves Lonegan's style and is a strong supporter. She basically told me she was voting for Daggett because of the GOP Primary results. When I told her that Daggett wants to hike taxes, favors hiking the gas-tax to pay for the Transportation Trust Fund, and favors adding additional toll roads she didn't know what to say. Either she was uninformed on where he stood on the issues or she was purposefully voting him because her zeal for Lonegan outweighed her common sense. Why cut off your nose to spite your face?
I wonder how many other Conservative and/or Lonegan voters feel the same and are doing this solely out of blind devotion?
I respect Lonegan a great deal and don't disagree with him on much. But the GOP horse race is over and for any Lonegan supporter to stay home or vote Daggett is more than shortsighted, its irresponsible.
Ronald Reagan once said my 80% friend is not my 20% enemy. I think that's true. Even if the average Lonegan supporter only agrees with Christie on 6 out of 10 things, its FAR better than the 1 out of 10 things that you'd agree with Corzine.
I would much rather take the former than the latter. If the last 8 years have proven anything, its that people vote with their feet. People and businesses have had enough; I can almost guarentee you that there will be less Republicans, Independents and Conservatives for Lonegan to rally four years from now.
I just hope other Lonegan supporters realize this before they help saddle us with Corzine for another four years.
Veritas vos Liberabit
"Collecting more taxes than absolutely necessary is legalized robbery." - Calvin Coolidge
The Poll is not current.
When compared to the Rasmussen poll that was taken entirely on Oct.26th the Quinnipiac Poll was taken from the 20th to the 26th. So the Quinnipiac poll is not current there is too much old information for it to be valid today. There was a minor surge to Corzine in the period of the 20th to the 23rd due to visits by Clinotn and Obama but that surge petered out very quickly. Thats why I view the Rasmussen poll with its 3% lead for Christie as more valid.Additionally, when independents see this poll a lot of them who now support Daggett will be frightened into voting for Christie when presented with the prospect of 4 more years of Corzine.
Scatterbrained Poll Results?
Christie leads among Independents (48% of the electorate) and among GOP (18% of electorate). Christie leads among 66% of the electorate? Yet he trails Corzine by 5 points? What percentage of their poll is Democrats - 90%?
This poll heavily oversampled Democorats and not enough Indies
3 years ago when Menendez lead Kean Jr. by 5%, Menendez was leading by 12% among Independents.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=981
Now Q releases a poll showing Christie leading Corzine by 15% among Independents and trailing by 5% overall?
Doesn't make sense.
Also/ Media
Media ( other then this site) didn't report either poll yesterday and yet today this new poll is front page news.
Shameless and no journalist integrity left at the Ledger or NJN News.
The Ledger has too many former employees on the payroll with Corzine and NJN news is an out right cheerleader for Corzine and takes tax payer dollars!
SHAME!!!!!!
Daggett Wins by a Nose
It’s come down to the “Big Race” for Corzine, Christie and Daggett. The track is muddy; it’s raining and the 3 “horses” are in the starting gate. As the starter's pistol cracks the thick, eerily quiet air, they’re off and running.
Corzine takes an early lead, followed by Christie; Daggett lags behind, hugging the rail.
Rounding the first turn, Christie seems to be hitting his stride and pulls ahead of Corzine,
Daggest is still running on the inside, 2 lengths behind Corzine.
As they near the far turn, Corzine falters; Daggett over-takes him. Down the home stretch, front-running Daggett and Christie both pass Corzine. Now a deafening roar from the grandstrands greets the galloping pack, racing for the finish line.
Daggett’s leading, with Christie 1 length behind and Corzine struggling last. It’s a photo-finish: Daggett wins by a nose. A smitten Christie places second. Corzine’s an also-ran.
Daggett
As I said to all of the Murray supporters of yesteryear. There is no conceivable way that your candidate can or will win. I appreciate the actual horse race you've drawn, but Gaggets in the home strech so to speak now and JSC and CC are both neck and neck at the finish line and CD is barely out of the gate
Quinnipiac
For all of the comments pointing to the poor nature of this poll...Quinnipiac is known a national leader when it comes to conducting polls and it is andecodately believed that to reach 50 in the Q poll is to almost garuntee victory (unless you are squander it-which it seems CC has)
When Quinnipiac shows a bigger lead than the Democracy Corps
poll for Corzine, there are questions.
Christie Wins
He will win by 3 percent on election day. Corzine's numbers are awful even with the President coming in and that says something. I wonder how much voter fraud the Dems are doing this election.
There is a lot of good news
There is a lot of good news here for Christie, actually. On election day, it will come down to GOTV: minority voters and union members vs. the rest of the state. A very sad commentary that it's so polarized, but that's the fact. And I state it.
Yup. The poll was heavily biased toward Democrats
"A couple more notes about this morning's Quinnipiac poll, putting Democrat Jon Corzine up by 5 percentage points. Quinnipiac is usually a fine pollster, but a couple of factors about this one are starting to emit a bit of an odor."
"Mark Impomeni heard back from Quinnipiac that the sample splits 49 percent Democrat, 27 percent Republican, 23 percent Independent."
As noted earlier, on Election Day 2008, CNN's exit poll had it at 44 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, 28 percent Independent. So we're to think that the Democrats, with Jon Corzine at the top of the ticket, will make up 5 percent more of the electorate than the did in 2008, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket?
Another reader noted that in Quinnipiac's last poll in New Jersey, Christie led among independents from 42-31; now in this most recently poll, he leads 45-30; yet overall, Christie has lost his 41-40 lead to trail 43-38.
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/10/28/latest-n-j-poll-has-corzine-ahea...
From National Review ON LIne, "The poll is suspect"
A couple more notes about this morning's Quinnipiac poll, putting Democrat Jon Corzine up by 5 percentage points. Quinnipiac is usually a fine pollster, but a couple of factors about this one are starting to emit a bit of an odor.
Mark Impomeni heard back from Quinnipiac that the sample splits 49 percent Democrat, 27 percent Republican, 23 percent Independent. [See UPDATE: Now Quinnipiac says the sample splits 40 percent Democratic, 25 percent Republican, 29 percent Independent.]
As noted earlier, on Election Day 2008, CNN's exit poll had it at 44 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, 28 percent Independent. So we're to think that the Democrats, with Jon Corzine at the top of the ticket, will make up 5 percent more of the electorate than the did in 2008, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket?
Another reader noted that in Quinnipiac's last poll in New Jersey, Christie led among independents from 42-31; now in this most recently poll, he leads 45-30; yet overall, Christie has lost his 41-40 lead to trail 43-38.
Also, note this line in the release: "From October 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,267 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points." A poll taken over seven days? Including a weekend? That seems like a minor problem...
UPDATE: Impomeni says Quinnipiac now says the sample splits 40 percent Democratic, 25 percent Republican, 29 percent Independent. That's interesting, because a Republican in New Jersey had told me his back-of-the-envelope math was that Democrats had to split somewhere between 45 percent and 48 percent of the sample.
Not for nothing
"Mark Impomeni heard back from Quinnipiac that the sample splits 49 percent Democrat, 27 percent Republican, 23 percent Independent."
It is typical for all polls to give A) the incumbant a 5 point bump and or B) give the candidate who represents the party with the most registrations a 5 point bump. That is customary so the fact that it happened in this poll is not out of the oridinary (It is usually awarded bc the aforementioned have more money and a more organized GOTV effort (Both can be said for JSC)
"I continue to find it
"I continue to find it puzzling that some Republicans would consider either staying home or voting for Daggett over voting for Christie."
I find it puzzling that you find it so puzzling. The reason is that there is no differnce between Corzine and Christie. Christie will just bring in more Republican hacks to add to the already existing group of Democrat hacks and things may actually get worse than they are now. Then, in future election, the Republicans will do exactly what they did in the primary and future generations (who have not moved away) will be stuck with this endless nonsense. On top of that anyone who has listened to Christie knows you cannot beleieve anything he says (same with Corzine).
I am voting for Uncle Floyd as a write in for Governor and assembly.
Quinnipiac has been a weak poll for years.....
Consistently had Hiliary winning states that went to Obama. The Rasmussen polls are the only reliable polls right now. That said, Christie better get his sht together. It's starting to get late very early for him..........
"Christie better get his sht
"Christie better get his sht together."
He's been full of it for years.
The only time Christie gets anything together is putting lots of whipped cream on his cheesecake.
http://christiegonewild.blogspot.com/
Christie Nonsupporter
This conservative will not be voting for Christie next Tuesday and it's not because I'm a "disgruntled Lonegan supporter." It's because I'm a conservative and Christie has failed utterly to provide any reason to vote for him. I have waited for 10 months for him to spout anything other than platitudes and generalities. He had the temerity to eviscerate a viable tax plan without supplying one of his own. He has insulted our intelligence at every turn. Someone once said that it's never wrong to vote your principles. And in this case, I can't in good conscience, vote for Christie.
"I continue to find it
"I continue to find it puzzling that some Republicans would consider either staying home or voting for Daggett over voting for Christie."
What's so puzzling? These are unreconstructed Loneganistas who can't accept the fact that their hero with his cock-eyed ideas was soundly and decisively rejected by Republican primary voters who are the most conservative voting bloc in the state.
The enemy of their enemy is their friend. They'll simply vote for Daggett out of spite so they can childishly say after Christie loses, "nah-nah see we told you so!"
Their numbers are inconsequential and won't have any impact whatsoever except in their own dreams of self-grandeur. If Christie loses it's because of moderate to liberal republicans moving to Daggett and Corzine's unlimited war chest and GOTV effort.
http://christiegonewild.blogspot.com/
140,000 are not important?
Typical Republican establishment arrogance towards Lonegan and his loyal supporters.
Afraid a Vote for Daggett is a Wasted Vote?
If you're afraid that a vote for Daggett is a Vote for Corzine, don't be because the polls show Daggett is hurting Corzine and putting Christie ahead.
See this Daggett Hurts Corzine and Helps Christie
You can be sure that you don't waste your vote by making the I'll vote for Dagget pledge.
The Daggett pledge is based on a simple premise, if enough people pledge their vote then you will vote for Daggett
Pledge your vote for Daggett at DaggettPledge.com
The I'll vote for Daggett Pledge
"I want to vote for Chris Daggett, but only if he has a real chance of winning. He needs pledges from 100,000 people like me. I don't want to wait til Election Day to find out that those votes existed, but we were all afraid to cast them. So, I'm signing my name below, with my address to prove that I'm real, and pledging that if 100,000 people like me sign up, I will vote for Daggett."
Take the I'll Vote For Daggett Pledge Here
Russ
Not finished packing yet? Leave already and take your big mouth and wasted vote with you.
Alex
Alex - it is over and your candidate is toast. A vote for him a wasted vote.