Poll:Christie leads by 4 points
By Editor
Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 42%-38%, with 13% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a North Carolina-based firm that works primarily for Democrats. Christie's lead is just fractionally above the margin of error.
Two weeks ago, PPP had the race in a statistical dead heat, with Christie ahead of Corzine 40%-39% and 13% for Daggett. According to previous polls, Daggett was taking more votes from Christie than he was from Corzine; now Daggett's voters, by a 44%-32% margin, say that Corzine would be their second choice.
Among independents, Christie leads Corzine 44%-25%, with 24% for Daggett. Christie has 51%-40% favorables among independents, while Corzine is upside-down at 24%-70%. Daggett's favorables with independents are 37%-32%.
"This race is going right down to the wire," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "The Daggett voters seem to be pretty volatile so if they go back to the Corzine camp he'll have a good shot of pulling it out. The campaign that does the better job of turning out its voters will win."
The poll has Daggett's negatives climbing: his favorables were at 30%-24% on October 13; now he's upside-down at 31%-36%. His increased negatives come largely from Republicans.
Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables: 33%-60%. Christie is nearly even: 45%-44%.
More than eight out of ten likely voters (83%) say they are solidly committed to their candidate. 17% say they could change their mind. Nearly four out of ten likely voters (38%) say they will be voting against someone more than voting for someone.
PPP surveyed 630 likely voters between October 23-26. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.
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Don't forget the new Rasmussen poll showing Christie ahead
New Rasmussen Poll (10/26/09)
Christie: 46%
Corzine: 43%
Daggett: 7%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/elect
Its going to go down to the
Its going to go down to the wire...
But I still believe that Christie is going to win ........ by a squeaker of course!
Funny how Formerlyanonymous
Funny how Formerlyanonymous always seems to disappear when ever a poll comes out showing Christie's lead growing, but yet his little head sprouts up every single time a critical story about Christie arises. lol
worth repeating
If Christie wins by anything less than 5%, there will be DNC lawyers up and down this State 'finding' Corzine votes by the box loads.
The Trend is toward Christie
In both the (PPP) poll and the Rasmussen poll Christie has increased his thin lead. There is a trend away from Daggett with Christie apparently getting the benefit of those that are now realizing that Daggett cannot and will not win.New TV ads for Christie are effective showing an assertive Christie who wants to clean up the mess created by Jon Corzine. I think his lead will build from her out. Obama's visit has not helped and the rescue mission launched by the Democrats did not have any effect on the poll numbers.Hopefully Jon Corzine's days are numbered.The Republicans may have a good chance of taking the legislature.
Ballott
Just look where Daggett's name is on the ballott. People won't go down that far if they are going to split their votes, especially for someone who can't win.
Trend
I agree with your comments. I always thought that the Daggett folks would peal away in the voter booth but they seem to be making the smart move early. Daggett benefited early by being "new" and a media darling and by avoiding any scrutiny of himself or his policies. He has not held up well to the light or the pressure. On a similar note, why didn't he just say he would not accept a paid position in a Corzine administration? He has been out of government for 20 years, so why not make that pledge? His protests may actually speak volumes.
For some time I thought the turning point would be when Christie became the "viable alternative" to Corzine. In other words, the voters needed to like and trust him. That has been difficult with the Corzine money and press against him, but his support seems to be solidying. I wish he would run his Gov. Kean commericial as well as endorsement ads to solidify the deal. Corzine has not really broken 40% from teh start no matter how much money he spends and mud he throws.
Polls roller coaster
everyone is getting dizzy look at at this. Take out the Tums, Alka Selzer. Turn off the computer, & TV until next Tues night when Christie wins.
If Corzine keeps it close, either way, then he wins
If Corzine can keep the spread between him and Christie close, it doesn't matter who leads. Corzine will win as long as he gets out the vote. There are just that many more D to reach out to than Rs in NJ - Corzine's campaign has a larger lake to fish in. More telling is the fact that Dems are coming home to Corzine - his numbers are getting solid and its reflected in this poll too: "[m]ore than eight out of ten likely voters (83%) say they are solidly committed to their candidate".
Oh brother
Just how many hard core dems do you think there are in NJ? Look at the numbers from 4 years ago in the suburbs, Corzine did well in afluent areas getting 45% of the vote eating into the GOP Base. This time around he might get only 30% in those same areas!!! You can't make that up no matter how many minority voters you get out in Newark and Camden. Keep drinking the cool aid, I just hope you don't have bad withdrawls on Nov 4th...
Christie will win!!
I believe Chris Christie will win the election. NJ wants true change and Corzine has failed us and Dagett has no experience. Christie is a former US attorney.
www.christiefornj.com
Is Wally Edge drinking the Kool-Aid too?
Check out this post from October 5th entitled "Dem voter registration edge up to 14 points over GOP". 14 points! The post notes that Dems hold the lead in voter registration in Burlington, Monmouth and Somerset, once Republican bastions.
I know that not every one of these people will vote for Corzine but the numbers give a much larger place to find votes. Not just in Camden or Newark.
http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/33748/dem-voter-registration-edge-14-...
Edge
I hear he likes the purple flavor . LOL
I didn't mention dems in those area, I meant people paying high taxes who lean dem.
Corzine is toast in those places and the campaign knows it.
All they can do is hope to get out huge numbers in other areas like last year.
Good luck....
Sadly, the margin isn't large enough
The margin isn't large enough to overcome the democratic fraud that will be brought down upon this cesspool of a state. Watch how more votes show up for Corzine than are actually registered. Washington state and Minnesota proved that and they are no way near as corrupt as this nightmare of a state we live in.
Over Estimate the DEM GOTV
They can't be every where and they cant hire everyone. They have won so many times they even think they are un beatable, but everyone loses once in awhile.
NJ has over 300 plus towns and cities, the Dems can't overcome all the high property taxes and the hundreds of thousands of people out of work.
Don't go by last year, things are dramaticaly differant and the GOP has the prefect storm.
I will repeat again, there are not enough rank and file dems, the un affliated voters decide these elections and this time they lean GOP. Barely but enough...
Daggett
It seems Daggett has peaked. He lost the momentum he got after the first debate and Star-Ledger endorsement. Also the RGA is hitting back against Daggett. I got a mailer today attacking Daggett for wanting to raise the sales tax. This benefits Christie who will likely win by a squeaker.
The only way Corzine can win now is perfect weather and limousine service with free drinks to get voters to the polls.
http://christiegonewild.blogspot.com/
Bye-bye Jon Boy
Last week Corzine's good buddy Obama flies into town for an FDU event to help Corzine. Corzine's numbers go down 3%. Way to go!
All Polls Lie!
Look at the Rassmussen poll vs the PPF/North Carolina poll.
As is always the case, whoever publishes the results will go to the one piece of information that favors their point of view.
I wish all the pollsters would just go away and let the campaigns be run however they want and let the less repulsive man win without 3rd party influence.
Daggett Hurts Corzine Not Christie
It seems that the propaganda that a vote for Daggett is a wasted vote is backfiring on the GOP. With Daggett in the polls Christie is up by 3 points. Take Daggett out of the polls and Corzine is up by 6 points.
If you're afraid that a vote for Daggett is a Vote for Corzine, don't be because the polls show Daggett is hurting Corzine and putting Christie ahead.
See this Daggett Hurts Corzine and Helps Christie
You can be sure that you don't waste your vote by making the I'll vote for Dagget pledge.
The Daggett pledge is based on a simple premise, if enough people pledge their vote then you will vote for Daggett
Pledge your vote for Daggett at DaggettPledge.com