Poll: Governor's race still statistical dead heat
By Editor
The race for Governor is a statistical tie, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released this morning showing Gov. Jon Corzine leading Republican Christopher Christie 39%-36% among likely voters, with 20% for independent Christopher Daggett. The margin of error is +/- 4%.
Corzine is running third among independents, with 27%; Christie leads Daggett 35%-31%.
"While Jon Corzine has made up a lot of ground in all the polls since last summer, he has not done it by increasing his support. Instead, Chris Christie has lost support as some voters who are opposed to Corzine have become attracted to Chris Daggett," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. "Even so, it is important to note that Corzine's lead in this poll is within the margin of error and if the election were today, the winner would be the candidate who can best rally his troops. We don't know now who that will be."
Corzine has upside-down favorables of 40%-52% and Christie is upside down, 39%-42%. Dagget is at 31%-15%. But more than half of the likely voters polled are unfamiliar with Daggett.
The poll shows Corzine benefits by increased support for Daggett, who appears to be taking votes from Christie. When asked how they would vote in a two-way race, 37% of Daggett supporters say they did not know or might not vote; 34% went for Christie and 28% for Corzine.
"Daggett continues to draw fairly evenly from both major party candidates. However, in a close race, it may make a difference that Daggett voters are people who would have been slightly more on Christie's side than on Corzine's in a two-way race," Redlawsk said. "The underlying question is whether current Daggett supporters really will vote for him on Election Day, or whether they will opt for their second choice, one of the major party candidates.
In recent years, Eagleton-Rutgers polls have been viewed as Democratic-leaning. Their new poll director, David Redlawsk, was a Democratic elected official in New Jersey, and then served as a Democratic County Chairman and John Edwards delegate in Iowa. His old website sported a Democratic National Committee logo and says "I'm active in the Democratic Party."
In 2004, Rutgers hired Jeffrey Levine, a political consultant whose firm polled for Democratic presidential candidate Richard Gephardt earlier that year and Democratic State Senate candidate Blair MacInnes the year before. Levine's appointment triggered the resignation of Eagleton poll director Clifford Zukin, a Rutgers professor who says he quit because he didn't want to seek Eagleton become a Democratic or Republican polling shop.
The poll of 583 likely voters was conducted October 15-20 and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Contributors
Wally Edge
South Jersey Democrats are touting Cinnaminson native Anthony Mazzarelli, the head of the emergency medicine department at Cooper University ... >
Bob Torricelli
Everybody needs to start a new job with a list of priorities and Chris Christie is no exception. There might be a thousand things that need to get ... >
Michael Patrick Carroll
Political discourse in America contains much in the way of intellect or intellectual honesty. One considers the Federalist Papers with wistful awe: ... >
Jeff Michaels
The NJ gubernatorial election result demonstrates that Governor-elect Chris Christie resurrected the center-right voter coalition of Republicans, ... >
Richard LaRossa
With a convincing win in defeating an encumbent Governor, why were there no coattails? >
Alan Steinberg
As in any transition, speculation is rampant as to whom Governor-elect Chris Christie will appoint as Chief of Staff, State Treasurer, and Attorney ... >
Dr. Joseph Marbach
Now that the dust has finally settled after the grueling campaign for governor, there are a number of lessons that we can draw from this ... >
Carla Katz
When he was growing up, Chris Christie's folks must have taught him that when he went to a new playground, he should pick a fight with the ... >
Joey Novick
“My work is done here. Winfrey has finally succumbed,” announced Novick at a press conference, pumping his fist in ‘win’ style. ... >
Murray Sabrin
New Jersey voters repudiated Governor Jon Corzine's policies of the past four years on November 3rd. Republican Chris Christie and Independent ... >
Poll
Hot Topics
Most Active Stories
- Christie transition team members to assume more specified roles tomorrow
- Sources: Watson Coleman still seeking speaker's chair
- Between two Tuesdays ago and next Monday: welcome to Atlantic City
- Sweeney subs for sitting senate president at On the Record taping
- Poll finds New Jersey residents narrowly support gay marriage
- Christie names 19 subcommittee chairs
- Marlboro mayor won't rule out '13 bid for governor
- Exploring congressional bid, Runyan meets with Gilmore
- Weinberg to Sweeney: honor your committment on marriage equality
- Sweeney: economy is the issue now, not marriage equality
- Quinnipiac: Christie leads 50%-40%
- Quinnipiac poll has Christie ahead by 4 points as Corzine gets closer
- Christie, in West New York, takes questions
- Gore makes his case for Corzine
- Potential LG rivals Allen and Weinberg ally for county committee reform legislation
- Final debate schedule
- Torricelli on making perfection the enemy of good
- Autistic man seeks Assembly seat in 37th
- Jeb Bush attends Christie fundraiser
- Correction: Weiner departure was not his own idea
Recent Posts From Inside Edge
Quote of the Day
"An Irish wake." -- New Jersey Sierra Club director Jeff Tittell, on Senate President Richard Codey's party in Atlantic City.
Recent Press Releases
- Nov 20 2009
- Nov 20 2009
- Nov 19 2009
Syndicate
Tainted Numbers
"Non of the above" would get 20% in a poll right now. All Corzine's negative commercials have guranteed that.
Most regular unaffiated and unhappy NJ voters won't be able to find Daggett on the ballot election day and will see Christie and will hold their nose and vote for him.
Final numbers
Christie 43%
Corzine 40%
Dagget 11%
the rest 6%
Take it to the bank,,,,,
I don't think Dagget will
I don't think Dagget will actually break double digits. I would put him at 9% max
Ridiculous Poll
Coming from Rutgers University which is allied with Corzine it does not surprise me that they would produce a poll with Daggett running 20% if only to encourage independent voters to vote for Daggett and thus hurt Christie's chances of winning.These poll numbers are way out of line when compared to credible polling organizations.The Eagleton Institute has lost all credibility when it produces polls designed to improve the chances of any particular candidate. They are going to come out with egg on their face with this phoney poll. It only shows how the tentacles of corrupt government have extended even to our state university. The lies are never ending as these people will do anything to hold on to power.
Agreed
The corruption of party politics and money is at its worst when it tarnishes our educational institutions. UMDNJ nearly lost its ability to serve as a teaching hospital, with NJ suffering, because of the influence of politics. This Rutgers poll is way out of line with every other poll and the candidate internal polls. It is a joke. It only allows Daggett, and the press, to make false claims of his support. Another reason we need significant change in Trenton. The corruption has permiated government, institutions, and even non-profits at all levels and we are all the worse while only a few, and special interests, benefit.
context?
Why, in this context, repeat the charges about the director of the poll? I know Redlawsk's work and he is extremely good at what he does and I know that he has impeccable ethics. It seems patently obvious that these hit jobs indicate that you're being used as a tool by Cliff Zukin, who clearly has a long-standing grudge against the poll.
The facts are that Zukin was
The facts are that Zukin was non partisan. Polls designed to influence the electorate and its voting patterns are clearly immoral. Redlawski should be ashamed of himself to be using tax dollars to help out Jon Corzine.
poll
corzine gave $250,000 to rutgers last year and now a former dem councilman does a poll, his first of the campaign, that shows corzine ahead? give me a break
Take this to the bank
If Christie wins by anything less than 5%, there will be DNC lawyers up and down this State 'finding' Corzine votes by the box loads. This is how they maintain their control anymore. There are no longer legitimate Dem losses, only fabricated Republican rigged outcomes which need to be overturned.
Vote For Daggett and You Get Corzine
Hugh Hewitt has got it spot on.
His new piece in the Washington Examiner is entitled, "New Jersey's choice and the MSM's"
He makes the case that a vote for Chris Daggett is a vote for Jon Corzine.
From the article:
Hugh's interview with Daggett can be read in its entirety here. Just as a reminder, it was the one where Daggett refused to acknowledge the Corzine corruption.
by Trochilus
The parrot known as Bill Patrick
You must be a parrot, Bill, because you merely repeat what the article says. Your point, and the article's, is irrelevant without any specific evidence that this poll was done unethically. If you had an independent thought, perhaps you could have done a search and found that Cliff Zukin donated $1200 to Obama last year -- some non-partisan. You really shouldn't spout off about things that you know nothing about.
Running scared
As Daggett continues to rise in the polls, everyone out there blames it somehow on Corzine. Start looking at Christie and his terrible campaign. If he loses any support, it is not Corzine's fault. It all falls in the hands of Christie. Add the fact that Daggett's message is resonating with more and more citizens in this state, THAT is why Daggett is polling so high. Expect to see his numbers continue to rise. You can make all the excuses you want, but this is beginning to look like Chris Christie is the spoiler, not Daggett. If you want to see Corzine elected out of office, your only chance is with Chris Daggett. He is the only candidate with upward mobility, while Christie has clearly spiraled out of this election.
Daggett's numbers
I expect Daggett's numbers will come down when the actueal results come in. Murray Sabrin dropped from ten percent in polls prior to the 1997 election and he wound up with less than five percent.
Of course Murray was a lousy candidate and appealed to only the farthest reaches of the rightwing spectrum. Daggett resonates with moderate, mainstream voters who will likely put Daggett's total well above Sabrin's.
http://christiegonewild.blogspot.com/
The house of cards will come tumbling down...
Daggett Breaks 20% in latest Poll. He will have a Major impact on an election.
The 20% threshold represents a psychological barrier and breaking that barrier gives Daggett a chance to win the election.
Christie is self-destructing and with Daggett at 20% voters will realize Daggett really has a change to win.
Voter for Corzine and Christie who really don't want to vote for either now see Daggett as a valid candidate.
http://njelection.wordpress.com/2009/10/22/daggett-breaks-20-in-latest-p...