Another poll shows a tightening gubernatorial race

Christopher Christie has a three point lead in the race for Governor, leading Jon Corzine by a 43%-40% margin among likely voters with 8% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday has Christie ahead by four points, 43%-39%, with 13% for Daggett.  A Monmouth poll last month had Christie up by eight points.

"New Jersey election followers should not be entirely surprised by this dynamic.  Democratic voters in New Jersey start paying attention later in the fall, causing the Republican candidate to lose ground," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "The question now is whether Chris Christie can stave off any more erosion of the poll lead he has held consistently since February,"

Corzine has an upside-down job approval rating of 37%-51%, about the same as last month.

Christie's favorables have dropped from 48%-30% to 41%-39%.  But Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables and is now at 40%-49%.

Murray says that politically independent women are a key factor in the narrowing of the gubernatorial race, with Corzine leading by a "statistically insignificant" 38%-37%.  Christie had a 28% lead among independent women in Monmouth's August poll.

"The great mammogram debate of 2009 seems to be winning converts among independent women.  While these voters had been giving their soft support to Christie based on discontent with the Corzine economic record, they appear to have beaten a hasty retreat when threats to their health care access were raised," said Murray.

Corzine is getting 75% among Democrats and Christie is at 86% among Republicans.  More Democrats have become interested in the campaign and are now more likely to vote than they were last month, the poll showed. 

Nearly half of all likely voters (48%) list property taxes as one of the top two issues they want candidates to address.  The poll showed that 57% of likely voters would view any proposal to cut property taxes as an election year gimmick, while 40% say that they would take a plan seriously.  Between the two major party candidates, likely voters continue to see Christie as better able to handle property taxes than Jon Corzine, by a 46% -31% margin.

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted by telephone with 785 New Jersey registered voters from September 24-29, and has a margin of error of + 4.3% among likely voters.