Quinnipiac poll has Christie ahead by 4 points as Corzine gets closer

By Editor | September 30th, 2009 - 5:00am

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The race for governor is getting closer: a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Republican Christopher Christie with a four-point lead over Democrat Jon Corzine, 43%-39%, among likely voters. Independent Christopher Daggett is at 13%.

Christie led 47%-37%-9% on September 1, and 46%-40%-7% on August 7.

Corzine continues to have upside-down approval ratings. He's now at 36%-58%, just slightly better than the 34%-60% approval rating earlier this month. His favorables are upside-down at 34%-56%, almost identical to his 34%-57% on September 1.

New Jerseyans are now split on Christie's favorables, 38%-38%. He was at 41%-30% in the last poll.

New Jersey voters split 38 - 38 percent in whether they have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of Christie, his worst measure of favorability so far. More than eight out of ten voters (84%) still don't know much about Daggett, whose poll numbers have nearly doubled since August.

"Christopher Christie is still ahead in the Garden State, but when he looks in the rear-view mirror, he sees the bearded visage of Gov. Jon Corzine getting closer," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "This race looks as if it will go down to the wire. Does Christopher Daggett's impressive climb measure a swing to him or simply a distaste for the two guys hollering at each other? Will Daggett fade on Election Day? At this stage, his numbers matter."

Among independents, Christie leads Corzine 45%-32%, with 16% for Daggett. On September 1, Christie led 46%-30%, with Daggett also at 16%. Corzine's approvals among independents are also upside-down, 31%-61%.

Corzine has a 71%-10%-11% among Democrats, while Christie has a 83%-6%-9% lead among Republicans.

In an open-ended question, where likely voters can give any answer, 41% of respondents said taxes were the most important campaign issue, and 17% said the economy or unemployment. Just 4% said corruption was their #1 issue.

More than six out of ten voters (61%) say that property taxes will go up during Corzine's second term, while 32% believe they will remain the same. Under Christie, it's 34% up, 46% stay the same.

"The attack-attack-attack style of this rugged campaign is taking a toll on Christie, whose favorability and honesty measures are dropping," Carroll said. "But the Republican is the big winner when voters turn their attention to the biggest campaign issue

Voters are split on the question of personal integrity: 44%-45% on whether Corzine is honest and trustworthy, and 37%-36% on Christie. From September 1, that represents an improvement for Corzine, who was upside-down at 40%-51%, and a drop for Christie, who was at 44%-31% just 29 days ago.

By an 85%-11% margin, New Jerseyans support a cap on property tax increases. Support for the cap is over 80% in every voter group. But by a 54%-39% margin, voters oppose increases to the sales tax or state income tax in order to fund property tax relief.

"New Jersey's property taxes are high and voters want to cap the increase, but they don't want to raise other taxes to do it," Carroll said.

Quinnipiac University polled 1,188 likely New Jersey voters from September 23-28. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

CLICK HERE TO READ A COPY OF THE POLL

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Something Fishy In Poll Numbers?

Submitted by HansMoleman on September 30, 2009 - 6:28am.

The poll says Independents (46% of statewide registration) go for Christie by 8 points; GOP voters (20% of the statewide registration) go for Christie by 77 points. It seems that this poll has greatly over-represented Democrats (34% of statewide voter registration) in the poll to boost Corzine up to only a 4 point loss. And of the 3 categories, Democrats usually have the lowest turnout percentage. I'm sorry, but these numbers just don't add up.

Not a big surprise.

Submitted by roryar on September 30, 2009 - 6:36am.

Corzine's desperate little campaign strategy of making himself to be the lesser of the evils has had some effect and it's the natural course of events to see the polls tighten. The debates will decide a lot--particularly the first one. My guess is that unless Corzine can gain traction on property taxes, he's through.

BYE BYE JON!!!!!!

Submitted by gail carol on September 30, 2009 - 7:20am.

Well, well, well, it looks like we will have a "going-away party" for Jon. Sorry Mr. Corzine, but you had FOUR years to make it right. Now it's Chris' turn. Arrivederci, A Dios e au revoir!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mr 39%

Submitted by gorednj on September 30, 2009 - 7:35am.

After spending almost 20 MILLION already, Jon Corzine(D-Desperate) can't seem to crack 39%.

There are good reasons for this---

1. Highest Unemployment in the region

2. Highest Tax Burden in the Country

3. WORST business climate in the country

4. 13 of the 20 highest taxed counties in NJ

5. People are tired of his pandering to the Unions & Special Interest Alliances. Whether its cutting deals so that he can stand with Joe Biden or promising instate tutition for children of illegals--this guy gives away OUR money like it's his own.

6. Union rank and file don't believe their leaders and realize that Corzine(D-Spend & Say Anything) has skipped pension payments, to finance his big spending ideas. While they don't like "pension reform", they like no funding a lot less.

The citizens of NJ are tired of Corzine(D-Liar) trying to BUY ELECTIONS. He and his hatchet men don't care about lying---the believe that if they spend enough people will believe it. NOT THIS TIME !!!!

"Don't let facts get in the way"...Corzine '09

Any campaign..

Submitted by Ron Burgundy on September 30, 2009 - 7:51am.

...that loses 6 points in one month is in real trouble. Christie's internals are probably just as bad, or worse. Now we start to see the feeding frenzy of stories about what went wrong with Christie's campaign.

bye bye liberals (Republicans that is!)

Submitted by formaja on September 30, 2009 - 8:18am.

Based on the historical FACT that the handpicked NJGOP candidate has not won since 1993 and has not come close since 2000 and does nothing but lose by double digit million vote races called between 8:15 and 8:30 PM when the polls close at 8. Chris Christie will NEVER be elected Governor of the state of New Jersey!

We told you so! Gee, what happened to your 15 point lead that we all said would fade just like every other lead you hacks crow about over each and every summer that disappears once the Democrats come back from summer vacation and begin to campaign!?

Hey GORED, the only fishy thing I guess is what will people like you do after Novermber when Christie is back in private practice and that exhaulted government job that was promised will not be there?

Mr 35%, maybe if he is lucky.

No Time To Party

Submitted by SewarenScoop on September 30, 2009 - 8:21am.

Theres lots of work to be done. Daggett's numbers show people don't want Corzine but Christie hasn't sold them. Time to step on it Chris.

To Ron Burgundy

Submitted by roryar on September 30, 2009 - 5:08pm.

Any campaign..
posted by Ron Burgundy

I think you're a bit confused. This poll shows Corzine losing (just like 99% of the other polls). The last time Corzine had a lead was in January and he has a net disapproval rating of 58%. How is this a sign that Christie's campaign is going to lose?

Norcross will Knock out Christie

Submitted by welcometothejungle on September 30, 2009 - 4:20pm.

ATTN: Christopher Christie/Norcross is planning on helping Corzine knock you out and here’s how.

Norcross Plan
Get control of all South Jersey Legislative seats. Get Codey Out, Bring in Sweeney as Senate president for the next four years before running him as Governor. Make a deal with Corzine that if we get Union and African American Support by cutting deals with Black Legislators like Oliver by making her speaker of the house we can then gain those votes and get rid of Christie. Once Corzine is elected, we then control it all. After the four years Corzine is safely in Washington or maybe he can just go a year, then resign to work with Clinton after she overthrows Obama and Sweeney takes over New Jersey as Governor. Greenwald will get a shot of taking Senate seat. Moriarty will take Maddens seat. Redd will move up to God knows what. The bottom line is EVERYTHING will stay the same, but the kings people will all get heavy rewards and move in new places. The state will still get screwed and the democratic party will continue playing the smile in your face game while screwing the people like they have been for decades. The fools will vote for us because we have money and we can bully, slander and destroy anybody who gets in GEORGE NORCROSS’S WAY.

Norcross brother and the rest of the good old boys maintain control of New Jersey and King Norcross stays in control. Never getting arrested or any feds do anything to him because he is so untouchable.

Daggett at 13

Submitted by FanovFlorio on September 30, 2009 - 5:02pm.

Says it all. Christie's numbers go down when Daggett's numbers go up because Daggett appeals to moderate independents who otherwise would vote for Christie.

If Corzine can turn out his base and Daggett's numbers continue to climb, Corzine wins.

http://christiegonewild.blogspot.com/

My Guess...

Submitted by roryar on September 30, 2009 - 5:19pm.

...is that after the first debate, Christie's numbers will start going up again. I'm also going to guess that Dagget will look less palatable once voters hear that he wants to raise the sales tax. I don't really know what his strategy is going into the debate.

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