Quinnipiac: Christie takes the lead in race for Governor as Corzine disapproval rating dips to 50%

By Editor | February 4th, 2009 - 5:58am

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Republican Christopher Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by six percentage points, 44%-38%, in the race for Governor, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early this morning.

Corzine's approval ratings have dropped to an upside-down 41%-50%, and his favorable are upside-down at 41%-49%.

"Corzine suddenly has become the underdog in this race and history will surely repeat itself in New Jersey in 2009. The big question is whether Corzine will come back like Democratic Gov. Brendan Byrne did in 1977 or go down to defeat like Jim Florio in 1993," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

In a Republican primary, Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan 44%-17%, with Franklin Mayor Brian Levine at 5% and Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) at 2%.

More than half of New Jersey voters, 54%-33%, say that Corzine does not deserve to be re-elected to a second term. Just 23% of independent voters want Corzine for another four years, 64% do not. Christie leads Corzine among independents by a 49%-24% margin.

Most New Jerseyans still don't know Christie (61%) or Lonegan (78%). Christie has a 31%-7% favorable rating.

In a head-to-head general election matchup, Corzine leads Lonegan 42%-36%. Lonegan leads among independents by 12 points, 40%-28%, and has a 15%-6% favorable rating.

"Christie has broken out of the gate as a strong challenger to Gov. Jon Corzine. In less than four months, he has come from trailing the Governor by six points to leading him by six points - a 12-point shift," Richards said. In November, Corzine led Christie 42%-36%.

CLICK HERE FOR A PRINTABLE VERSION OF THE QUINNIPIAC POLL

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Doesn't say a whole lot....yet

Submitted by J_Joseph_Rivera on February 4, 2009 - 8:31am.

Statewide GOP candidates always stay stuck at around 40 to 44 percentage points from beginning to end and never move.

Corzine may be very vulnerable, but for now, all this tells me is that nobody's paying attention.

What I like about Steve Lonegan is that he firmly believes you should run in an election as if you're behind all the time as he stated himself in Anytown, USA.

I know that he sees this poll for what it is, a February poll and nothing more.

"The bible is not my book, nor Christianity my religion"- Abraham Lincoln

The Katz Factor

Submitted by smallmouth on February 4, 2009 - 9:42am.

This is not rocket science - Corzine's numbers move in direct proportion to the number of Carla Katz-related stories that appear in any given week.

visual

Submitted by GnIPGnOP on February 4, 2009 - 10:03am.

anyone else get an image of the bus pulled over to the side of the road, steam pouring out with Shaftan's head under the hood

we know it's february but 30 pts back against a candidate who hasn't even got started yet?

12 pts worse in a direct race against Corzine?

Not promising at all

Hmmmmm!

Submitted by beowulf on February 4, 2009 - 10:11am.

How will the Loonyganites spin this one in their favor? "This poll was biased!" "Its just a Feb poll, no one is paying attention yet!" "Loonygan has not really begun his campaign yet!" Good luck fellas, we'll see you at the polls. But I won't say I told you so...

Poll Shows GOP Has Work Ahead

Submitted by PoliticalTruth on February 4, 2009 - 10:45am.

Given Lonegan is virtually unknown, I think this poll shows any generic GOP candidate has a base of only 35-40% of statewide support, sight unseen, in these troubled times. That means the GOP nominee still has an uphill battle, even though the incumbent party is running in the midst of a deep recession and financial crisis. I think the GOP nominee, presumably Christie, really needs to begin to work on building a credible economic plan to create jobs that is easy to explain and has the public support of marquee names that appeal to independents. Generic calls for cutting waste, fraud and abuse isn't going to get it done.

Easy spin by any faction

Submitted by bitaryo on February 4, 2009 - 11:40am.

It is "registered" voters and not "likely" voters (voted in the last 3 out of 4 general elections). With a 50-55% turnout predicted, spin on that.

Lonegan's Polling

Submitted by BurlingDem on February 4, 2009 - 11:44am.

I doubt anyone will listen or care for Lonegan's internal polling results, when his top advisor and pollster, Dick Shaftan boldly stated Christie would not run.

Ken Balut will defeat Jon Corzine

Submitted by reformdem on February 4, 2009 - 1:55pm.

Quinnipiac's poll is skewed due to faulty question arrangement. It's downright unprofessional.

Corzine is so unpopular among every group that his chance of surviving the primary is remote.

The only thing Clay F. Richards said that makes sense is that history may repeat itself in New Jersey in 2009.

Brendan Byrne got 30% of the vote in the 1977 Democratic primary. Corzine may get about that, although I suspect he will get close to 40% against Ken Balut.

What this means...

Submitted by Demsandonts on February 4, 2009 - 2:14pm.

Is that the Democratic Party needs to dislodge it's head from it's a-- and get Corzine out of the race before they lose the legislature and host of mayors and council members come the fall...

Can you say "Rothman/DiVincenzo" for NJ?

Vote Column "A" - All the way!

This poll is a joke!

Submitted by Ron Burgundy on February 4, 2009 - 3:18pm.

The poll surveys registered voters. In a low turnout year (like this one will be), any decent poll would survey likely voters - the ones who actually say they're planning to vote this year. Also, I wonder what the breakdown by party afiliation is? Did they oversample Republicans because of the primary question? I notice they dont give that information in the press release.

This poll is a joke!

Submitted by Ron Burgundy on February 4, 2009 - 3:21pm.

In the end...

Submitted by beowulf on February 4, 2009 - 4:22pm.

...polls are about as valuable as lawn signs. They only important to the candidates and the insiders...

February isn't November

Submitted by The Centrist on February 4, 2009 - 6:39pm.

This poll and $.35 gets you on the Parkway.

Didn't Tom Kean Jr. lead Bob Menendez in polls in early summer 2006? How'd that race turn out for the GOP?

And for those looking to compare Corzine's mediocre approval ratings with Florio and 1993, remember this: Florio came back from a 17% approval rating (after his tax hike) and only lost to Whitman by 2 pts. Corzine was never as low as 17%.

And let's not annoint Chris Christie just yet, as appealing as he looks. In 2001, Bob Franks was annointed the GOP nominee. Someone forgot to tell Schundler.

in the end ...

Submitted by RichardBabcock on February 5, 2009 - 9:34am.

I hear you on lawn signs, but they are just one small piece of a larger marketing campaign, and they can build name recognition and remind voters to actually vote.

I disagree with you on polls though. Polls can show a candidates viability and momentum. They can energize the base, alert the campaigns, and narrow the field of those candidates that show poorly.

I think we all know now how the other Republican candidates are doing, and this information will, to some degree, influence their decisions to stay in or drop out of the race.

Bob Franks

Submitted by CliffordCase on February 5, 2009 - 2:53pm.

Bob Franks had only a few weeks to raise money and campaign after Donny Di dropped out of the race.

And Schundler got creamed in the general election.

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Submitted by jasem on April 26, 2009 - 12:14am.

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Brendan Byrne got 30% of the vote in the 1977 Democratic primary. Corzine may get about that, although I suspect he will get close to 40% against Ken Balut.