Quinnipiac poll: Obama has razor-thin lead in N.J.; McCain trails by just 3 points

By Editor | September 16th, 2008 - 7:16am
| More

The contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state's fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters.  Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll.

This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign.  A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points.

“The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey.  The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  

McCain's surge has come primarily from white voters, the poll says.  White voters back McCain 56%-36% -- up from 50%-42% in August, while Black voters, by a 93%-7% margin, are voting for Obama -- up from 94%-1%.  McCain leads among men (53%-40%), while Obama is ahead 54%-38% among women.  But  white women back McCain 50%-42% (46%-44% in August).  Among independents, the lead has shifted from Obama (45%-42%0 to McCain (47%-43%).  

In New Jersey, Obama has a 56%-34% favorable rating, while McCain is at 56%-35%.  GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is at 42%-32%, while Joe Biden, the Democratic VP candidate, is at 48%-25%.  Nearly six out of ten New Jersey voters (58%) say McCain's choice of Palin was a good one, while 59% say Obama made a good pick in Biden.

“In addition to the Palin bounce, Republicans seem to be scoring points with their attacks on the Obama tax plan,” Richards said.

The economy is the most important issue for New Jersey voters, followed by Iraq (13%), terrorism(10%), health care (9%), and energy policy (8%).  New Jerseyans say Obama has a better understanding of the economy (48%-43%), but that McCain better understands foreign policy (64%-27%).

By a 32%-28% margin, N.J. voters say they  will be better off if Obama is elected.   But more than half (54%) say their taxes will go up if Obama is elected, compared to 34 percent who expect a tax hike in a McCain administration.  More than four out of ten voters (44%) believe McCain’s claim that Obama will raise taxes on most American families, while 40% say Obama’s claim that he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families.

"This is a very strong poll for Senator McCain and Governor Palin. But polls go up and down and we are staying focused on our grass roots door to door campaign," said State Sen. Bill Baroni (R-Hamilton), McCain's New Jersey campaign chairman. "This poll shows two things. First, New Jerseyans are clearly seeing that Senator McCain and Governor Palin are the nations leading reformers at a time that Washington deperately needs reform. And second, that our grass roots door to door campaign, is clearly connecting with New Jersey voters." 

Baroni predicts "a close election night in New Jersey."

"The recent series of polls, all showing Barack Obama leading, nonetheless reminds New Jersey Democrats we have much work to do to be sucessful in November," said Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic State Chairman. "With so much at stake -- the economy, the war, healthcare for the uninsured -- Democrats will deliver the state for Barack Obama with room to spare."

Andrew Poag, the Communications Director of Obama's New Jersey campaign, agrees.

“As our unprecedented grassroots voter outreach program indicates, the enthusiasm for Barack Obama here in New Jersey is overwhelming. One reason so many New Jerseyans are volunteering in such great numbers is that they know another four years of the failed George W. Bush policies that John McCain is proposing won’t fix this economy and won’t bring us the change we need," said Poag.

From September 10 – 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,187 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

Polyanna.

Trying to sell some ads with this article?

Soccer Moms

Palin is a soccer mom and New Jersey is loaded with them and their SUVs.

McCain in New Jersey

"But more than half (54%) say their taxes will go up if Obama is elected, compared to 34 percent who expect a tax hike in a McCain administration."

Can't say that shocks me very much. Virtually everything Barack Obama wants to do from an economic standpoint has been done here in New Jersey and we are over thirty billion dollars in debt and have the worst economy in the nation as a result.

Bill Baroni and the New Jersey McCain team are doing a tremendous job. If McCain manages to win New Jersey, you have to believe that Baroni will become an immediate favorite as a candidate for Governor next year if he's interested.

"For his sake, I hope Joe Biden got that VP thing in writing!"- Rudy Giuliani

Double post

Double post

McCain will win NJ

My town by town polling, both before and after the convention, is very bad for Obama, particularly with Italian Democrats who are defecting in huge numbers.

This trend will flow over into other states with large numbers of Italian Democrats: Pennsylvania, Connecticut and maybe even Delaware will go for McCain and New York, Massachusetts and Rhode Island will see closer than expected races. A McCain victory in New York is not out of the question, a new poll shows him down only 5 there.

The Palin pick has turned this race from 1996 to 1980.

Super Delegates Do It Again!!

When the primaries ended, it became apparent the Democratic nominee would be chosen by the super delegates. Super delegates were to choose the most electable candidate for our party. Good job deelegates. You "SELECTED" a candidate that couldn't even win in traditional blue states, OH, PA,IN, KY, and W VA. Obama won mostly in caucus states which are traditionally red states.

Hillary made a good argument for this in her victory speech after wining the primary in OH. Super delegates job was to pick the most electable candidate. Voters are not going to have a candidate crammed down their throats. This years election theme has become "COUNTRY BEFORE PARTY."

Clay Richard has no clue.

When will Politicker NJ stop humiliating itself with irrelevant, third-string academic hacks from bad schools who know absolutley nothing about politics and polling?

Obama is in a free fall. He's losing Bergen County by at least 10-15 points. He's luck if he carries 10 towns in the whole county.

Other than Hudson, Essex, Passaic, Camden and possibly Union, where is this man going to win countywide?

Please, get some pollsters who understand the numbers and stop with the tenured idiots.

Vote Column "A"- All the way!

Dino and Mountaintop, I think

you are on to something here. Realclearpolitics has also been showing a drastic change in almost every "battleground" state in McCain's favor.

I especially like the 1996 to 1980 line. Well done.

Dino and Mountaintop, I think

you are on to something here. Realclearpolitics has also been showing a drastic change in almost every "battleground" state in McCain's favor.

I especially like the 1996 to 1980 line. Well done.

With Citizens Like This

In the last election cycle one NJ voter was heard to say, "I'd rather vote for a crook than a Republican." With voters like these, ain't no way NJ is going with McCain.

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Morning News Digest: February 9, 2010

Garden State Equality fires new broadside at Dems Smarting over the state Senate's refusal to pass marriage equality and disillusioned at the moment with the Democratic Party majority, Garden State Equality’s 85-member Board of Directors unanimously decided against giving financial contributions to political parties and their affiliated committees. ...

Wally Edge

A handwritten note left behind during a Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee meeting indicates that Senate Majority Leader Barbara Buono (D-Metuchen) would support a plan to require all current public employees to contribute at least 1.5% of...
As New Jersey braces for another snowstorm, noteworthy is Hamilton Mayor John Bencivengo’s website, where residents can use “Snow Plow Sal” to monitor the movements of snow plows to determine when their street will be plowed.  Hamilton also has...
Just before leaving the Senate Presidency, Richard Codey (D-Roseland) appointed Orange Mayor Eldridge Hawkins to the Congressional Redistricting Commission.  Now his successor, Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford) is considering making his own...
Mark Anton, the Chairman of the Suburban Propane Gas Corporation, was a half-term Republican from Essex County who was elected in a 1953 special election after Alfred Clapp, who had mounted an unsuccessful campaign for the GOP gubernatorial election...
Assemblyman Herbert Conaway (D-Delanco) has dropped his bid for Burlington County Democratic Chairman, notifying party leaders by letter this weekend.  That leaves Gary Haman as the leading candidate to replace Alice Furia, who took over last...

Contributors

Everybody needs to start a new job with a list of priorities and Chris Christie is no exception. There might be a thousand things that need to get done... more »
A new Governor and Legislature offer the perfect opportunity to re-think the Trenton status quo and for experienced observers and practitioners to offer their best ideas on improving the... more »
 I grew up in a neighborhood in Newark, New Jersey where gambling was part of every day life.  Many of my relatives gambled.  The guys gambled on games, and... more »
Due to a highly inappropriate breach of etiquette by President Barack Obama in his State of the Union Address, the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision in the Citizens United... more »
When life is bad---natural disasters, families losing homes or jobs, an attack on our country, health crises--people come together and do things that are inspiringly good.  After the... more »
Our new Governor suffers from no lack of advice.  Much of it, contained in the transition reports, deserves prompt attention.  Obviously, economic prosperity benefits everyone, and – as... more »
The agenda has been ambitious.Jobs.  Homeland security.  Iraq.  Afghanistan.  Healthcare.  Energy.  Banking.   Taken together, the Obama Presidency has all the makings of a compelling story -- action, adventure, emotion,... more »
The new regime pushes the only conservative off the Budget Committee.   This is a direct result of pressure from a certain Republican County Chairperson who was hired by Garden... more »
Now that  the dust has finally settled after the grueling campaign for governor, there are a number of lessons that we can draw from this election. First and... more »
A  few years ago, my brother Paul gave me a birthday present of Tim Russert’s book, The Wisdom of Our Fathers. Great book. Read it cover to cover. Or skim... more »
New Jersey's spending and borrowing spree over the past three decades is coming home to roost.  State debt has increased 700% under both Republican and Democratic administrations, and spending... more »
On January 11th New Jersey’s 213th Legislature ended its session, followed the next day by the commencement of the 214th Legislature, with newly elected officials being sworn into office,... more »
On January 6, 2010, several newspapers published articles with titles like “no more aid for struggling cities”, “Christie will cut state aid” and the like; furthermore, in the body... more »
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, you target teachers. That’s not a positive note to start your tenure. You forget that the Teachers’ Union makes decisions on its own, such... more »