Quinnipiac poll: Obama has razor-thin lead in N.J.; McCain trails by just 3 points
By Editor | September 16th, 2008 - 7:16amThe contest between Barack Obama and John McCain in New Jersey is too close to call, with a new Quinnipiac University poll showing the battle for the state's fifteen electoral votes at 48%-45% among likely voters. Obama led McCain by ten percentage points, 51%-41% in an August Quinnipiac poll.
This is the fourth independent poll within the last week to show New Jersey as an emerging battleground state in the presidential campaign. A Monmouth University/New Jersey poll released this morning shows Obama leading by 8 points, and a Marist College poll released Friday night had identical numbers to Quinnipiac, 48%-45%. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll from last week had Obama up by six points.
“The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
McCain's surge has come primarily from white voters, the poll says. White voters back McCain 56%-36% -- up from 50%-42% in August, while Black voters, by a 93%-7% margin, are voting for Obama -- up from 94%-1%. McCain leads among men (53%-40%), while Obama is ahead 54%-38% among women. But white women back McCain 50%-42% (46%-44% in August). Among independents, the lead has shifted from Obama (45%-42%0 to McCain (47%-43%).
In New Jersey, Obama has a 56%-34% favorable rating, while McCain is at 56%-35%. GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is at 42%-32%, while Joe Biden, the Democratic VP candidate, is at 48%-25%. Nearly six out of ten New Jersey voters (58%) say McCain's choice of Palin was a good one, while 59% say Obama made a good pick in Biden.
“In addition to the Palin bounce, Republicans seem to be scoring points with their attacks on the Obama tax plan,” Richards said.
The economy is the most important issue for New Jersey voters, followed by Iraq (13%), terrorism(10%), health care (9%), and energy policy (8%). New Jerseyans say Obama has a better understanding of the economy (48%-43%), but that McCain better understands foreign policy (64%-27%).
By a 32%-28% margin, N.J. voters say they will be better off if Obama is elected. But more than half (54%) say their taxes will go up if Obama is elected, compared to 34 percent who expect a tax hike in a McCain administration. More than four out of ten voters (44%) believe McCain’s claim that Obama will raise taxes on most American families, while 40% say Obama’s claim that he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families.
"This is a very strong poll for Senator McCain and Governor Palin. But polls go up and down and we are staying focused on our grass roots door to door campaign," said State Sen. Bill Baroni (R-Hamilton), McCain's New Jersey campaign chairman. "This poll shows two things. First, New Jerseyans are clearly seeing that Senator McCain and Governor Palin are the nations leading reformers at a time that Washington deperately needs reform. And second, that our grass roots door to door campaign, is clearly connecting with New Jersey voters."
Baroni predicts "a close election night in New Jersey."
"The recent series of polls, all showing Barack Obama leading, nonetheless reminds New Jersey Democrats we have much work to do to be sucessful in November," said Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic State Chairman. "With so much at stake -- the economy, the war, healthcare for the uninsured -- Democrats will deliver the state for Barack Obama with room to spare."
Andrew Poag, the Communications Director of Obama's New Jersey campaign, agrees.
“As our unprecedented grassroots voter outreach program indicates, the enthusiasm for Barack Obama here in New Jersey is overwhelming. One reason so many New Jerseyans are volunteering in such great numbers is that they know another four years of the failed George W. Bush policies that John McCain is proposing won’t fix this economy and won’t bring us the change we need," said Poag.
From September 10 – 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,187 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Wake-Up Call
Morning News Digest: February 9, 2010
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Quote of the Day
Quote of the Day
“We will work harder and smarter to protect consumers, to preserve civil rights, to effectively regulate the alcoholic beverage industry, to ensure that the integrity of New Jersey’s casino gaming industry continues, to keep drives, passengers and pedestrians safe on our streets, to assist victims of crimes, and to remember always the importance of juvenile justice on issues affecting the state." -- Attorney General-designate Paula Dow, at her Senate confirmation hearing.
- PolitickerNJ.com, 02/08/10Poll
Recent Press Releases
Press releases are submitted by PolitickerNJ users, not by staff. They do not represent the viewpoint of PolitickerNJ.com.
Feb 9 2010
COUTINHO BILL TO FURTHER BOOST ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT NEW JERSEY ADVANCED BY ASSEMBLY PANEL
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Polyanna.
Trying to sell some ads with this article?
Soccer Moms
Palin is a soccer mom and New Jersey is loaded with them and their SUVs.
McCain in New Jersey
"But more than half (54%) say their taxes will go up if Obama is elected, compared to 34 percent who expect a tax hike in a McCain administration."
Can't say that shocks me very much. Virtually everything Barack Obama wants to do from an economic standpoint has been done here in New Jersey and we are over thirty billion dollars in debt and have the worst economy in the nation as a result.
Bill Baroni and the New Jersey McCain team are doing a tremendous job. If McCain manages to win New Jersey, you have to believe that Baroni will become an immediate favorite as a candidate for Governor next year if he's interested.
"For his sake, I hope Joe Biden got that VP thing in writing!"- Rudy Giuliani
Double post
Double post
McCain will win NJ
My town by town polling, both before and after the convention, is very bad for Obama, particularly with Italian Democrats who are defecting in huge numbers.
This trend will flow over into other states with large numbers of Italian Democrats: Pennsylvania, Connecticut and maybe even Delaware will go for McCain and New York, Massachusetts and Rhode Island will see closer than expected races. A McCain victory in New York is not out of the question, a new poll shows him down only 5 there.
The Palin pick has turned this race from 1996 to 1980.
Super Delegates Do It Again!!
When the primaries ended, it became apparent the Democratic nominee would be chosen by the super delegates. Super delegates were to choose the most electable candidate for our party. Good job deelegates. You "SELECTED" a candidate that couldn't even win in traditional blue states, OH, PA,IN, KY, and W VA. Obama won mostly in caucus states which are traditionally red states.
Hillary made a good argument for this in her victory speech after wining the primary in OH. Super delegates job was to pick the most electable candidate. Voters are not going to have a candidate crammed down their throats. This years election theme has become "COUNTRY BEFORE PARTY."
Clay Richard has no clue.
When will Politicker NJ stop humiliating itself with irrelevant, third-string academic hacks from bad schools who know absolutley nothing about politics and polling?
Obama is in a free fall. He's losing Bergen County by at least 10-15 points. He's luck if he carries 10 towns in the whole county.
Other than Hudson, Essex, Passaic, Camden and possibly Union, where is this man going to win countywide?
Please, get some pollsters who understand the numbers and stop with the tenured idiots.
Vote Column "A"- All the way!
Dino and Mountaintop, I think
you are on to something here. Realclearpolitics has also been showing a drastic change in almost every "battleground" state in McCain's favor.
I especially like the 1996 to 1980 line. Well done.
Dino and Mountaintop, I think
you are on to something here. Realclearpolitics has also been showing a drastic change in almost every "battleground" state in McCain's favor.
I especially like the 1996 to 1980 line. Well done.
With Citizens Like This
In the last election cycle one NJ voter was heard to say, "I'd rather vote for a crook than a Republican." With voters like these, ain't no way NJ is going with McCain.
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