Leonard Lance

State Sen. Kevin O'Toole, the Essex County GOP Chairman, could be the next ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee.

When Leonard Lance resigns his State Senate seat sometime over the next three weeks to take his seat in Congress, Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. will need to designate a new ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee.  Republicans close to Kean suggest that he will pick Kevin O’Toole to succeed Lance. 

The other Republicans on the Senate Appropriations Committee are: Anthony Bucco, who served as Majority Leader in 2002 and 2003; and Steven Oroho and Philip Haines, who are both completing their first year in the Legislature.

www.co.hunterdon.nj.us

Holt being sworn in as freeholder by state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton), who he now hopes to succeed

Calling himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate in the mold of state Sen. Leonard Lance and former state Sen. Bill Schluter, Hunterdon County Freeholder Matt Holt formally declared his candidacy for state senate in the 23rd district today to local municipal chairs and elected officials.

“It is time that the traditional Republican principles of low taxes, responsible government, transparency and impeccable integrity become the hallmarks of New Jersey governance,” wrote Holt in a letter to Republican county committee members from Hunterdon and Warren that's set to widely distributed tomorrow. “As your State Senator, I will pledge total commitment to these principles.”

Holt, the grandson of former U.S. Sen. Clifford P. Case, joins Assemblyman Mike Doherty (R-Washington Twp.) of Warren County and Assemblywoman Marcia Karrow (R-Flemington), a fellow Hunterdon County resident, in the race to succeed state Sen. Leonard Lance, who was just elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Hunterdon County Web site

Assemblywoman Marcia Karrow (R-Flemington) is reaching out to county committee members in Warren County to enlist support for her state Senate bid, but that’s about as much as she will say.

“I’ve had an extremely encouraging response. I’m going to continue working my plan.  I  told you this before, I’ll tell you again: I’m not going to campaign in the press.  Others can do that if they want to.”

Karrow, a Hunterdon County native, is just entering what is certain to be a hotly contested state senate race to replace Congressman-elect Leonard Lance in the 23rd District, the first part of which will be decided by a joint vote of the Hunterdon and Warren County committees.  Karrow’s main rival, Assemblyman Michael Doherty (D-Washington Township) is hoping to unite Warren County Republicans behind him and cut into Karrow’s Hunterdon County votes. 

Peterson (left) in 2007, after Lance (right) swore him in as a freeholder

Outgoing state Sen. Leonard Lane (R-Clinton) is not willing to endorse a successor for his seat, but he is helping a candidate for one of the assembly seats that’s going to open up in his legislative district.

Hunterdon County Freeholder Erik Peterson is likely to run for assembly, and Lance, who’s moving up to the House of Representatives next month, is helping him plot his campaign.

“I am very interested, and I am currently working with my political mentor and friend, Leonard Lance, on preparing on making a formal announcement and kicking off my campaign for the seat,” Peterson told PolitickerNJ.com today. 

As the battle to replace outgoing state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton) takes shape, the two declared candidates are beginning to make incursions outside of their home bases.

Assemblyman Mike Doherty (R-Washington Township), a Warren County legislator who began his campaign a day after he learned that Lance was moving up to Congress, feels encouraged by the response he’s received from the Hunterdon County committee men and women he’s met on the campaign trail so far. But some insiders argue that Assemblywoman Marcia Karrow (R-Flemington), a Hunterdon County native who just made her candidacy official last week, should not be counted out among the Warren County committee members, despite local contentions that the county will be in lock-step behind Doherty.

A third candidate, Hunterdon County Freeholder Matthew Holt, appears to be ready to run, and will formally announce his bid either next week or the week after.

The county committee members from Hunterdon and Warren Counties will meet in either January or early February to decide who gets to be Lance’s interim replacement in the state senate. In June, a primary will be held to determine who gets to remain on the ballot for the November general election, when voters will select a candidate to fill the two remaining years of Lance’s term in this safely Republican district.

This race is more complicated than a regional battle between the Hunterdon and Warren County Republican organizations.

From right: Garrett, Doherty and U.S. Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-Warren Township) (source: njtrl.org)

Assemblyman and state senate candidate Michael Doherty (R-Washington Township) continued to shore up his conservative credentials today, rolling out the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage.)

“I have worked with Mike for many years, first in the state legislature and now as a Congressman, and he has consistently fought for smaller government, less regulation and lower taxes,” said Garrett, who recently fended off a well-funded challenge to win reelection by a slightly greater margin than in 2006. “Mike is a strong supporter of the Constitution, and he has been consistently endorsed by pro-business groups as a result of his record in the state legislature.”

Doherty is running to replace state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton), who will join Garrett in New Jersey’s Republican congressional delegation in January. Assemblywoman Marcia Karrow (R-Flemington) is also running, and Hunterdon County Freeholder Matt Holt is considering a bid.

Assemblyman Michael Doherty (R-Washington Township) speaks at a pro-life rally in 2004 (Source: njtrl.org)

It is still not clear exactly how many candidates are running to succeed state Sen. Leonard Lance, but battle lines are already being drawn on two fronts: geography and ideology.

Assemblyman Mike Doherty (R-Washington Township), 45, is going to campaign on the latter. He’s from Warren County, which initially puts him at a slight disadvantage in a county committee race, since it has about 40 fewer members than Hunterdon County, home of his opponent, Assemblywoman Marcia Karrow (R-Flemington). But he’s one of the most conservative members of the legislature, and plans to use that to siphon off Hunterdon’s most staunchly conservative county committee men and women.

“I see it as a real bellwether of what type of Republican leadership we’re going to have,” said Doherty, who’s a patent lawyer by trade. “If you ask people across the state who are among the most conservative Republican legislators, I would be among the first or second people named. That’s going to enure to my benefit.”

Assemblywoman Marcia Karrow and Hunterdon County Freeholder Matthew Holt are both potential candidates for Leonard Lance's 23rd district State Senate seat

Assemblyman Michael Doherty seems to be playing out of the Bill Baroni playbook: Doherty is rapidly rolling out endorsements to scare the Assemblywoman from his district out of a race for an open State Senate seat.  Two weeks after Leonard Lance won a seat in Congress, the Doherty for Senate campaign is in high gear, and Marcia Karrow has a deer-in-headlights thing going on as she mulls her own chances to move up to the Senate. 

Karrow, according to Republican leaders that have spoken with her, believed her Hunterdon County base would propel her to victory in a special election convention where the voters as GOP County Committee members.  But Karrow is reportedly frightened to give up her Assembly seat and move up to the Senate, just to be taken out by Doherty in a Republican primary, where the conservative Warren County legislator might have an advantage.  If Karrow passes on the race (she may have to now that she's lost two crucial weeks in a short campaign -- Doherty is now the strong front runner to succeed Lance), it is because of her fear of being out of a job after just one year in the State Senate.

One possible miscalculation by Karrow: Doherty is a blinker who has already passed up a number of chances to run for higher office, including a primary challenge against Lance last year and a race for the U.S. Senate.  Had Karrow been the incumbent Senator, it's possible that Doherty would have blinked and not given up his Assemblys seat to run for Senator.

Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), left, campaigns last year in Atlantic County with Assemblyman John Amodeo (R-Margate) and Assemblyman Vince Polistina (R-Egg Harbor).

Raging moderate state Sen. Leonard Lance’s (R-Hunterdon) victory should serve as a lesson to every downtrodden member of the GOP as the party tries to shake off tough losses from the Nov. 4th election, argues Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield). 

The pro-choice Republican believes his party gets into trouble when it tries to use the chambers of government to lecture taxpayers about how to behave in their personal lives. 

“The minute you preach morality, you’re done,” Bramnick said. “That sold after Monica Lewinsky, but frankly, I’m offended by it.” 

Bramnick, who’s flirted with going statewide in recent years and emerged as an early favorite to pursue the 7th District Congressional seat Lance just won before standing down, said regardless of the national party's strategies, Republicans in New Jersey shouldn’t run on family values.  

Matt Holt, a Hunterdon County Freeholder and the grandson of former U.S. Sen. Clifford Case, says he might run for Leonard Lance's State Senate seat

Another potential candidate has emerged to succeed State Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) after he resigns his seat to head to Congress.

Hunterdon County Freeholder Matt Holt this morning put one foot in the ring, announcing that he’s forming an exploratory committee to “examine his prospects” at the joint Hunterdon and Warren County convention that will decide who will serve in Lance’s seat until the November election.

Holt likened his political temperament to Lance and former State Sen. Bill Schluter, as a “voice of reason and moderation” and “a person of vision who avoids partisan gridlock in order to promote the best interests of the residents of Warren and Hunterdon counties.”