DICK ZIMMER

With a 22-point lead in his bid for re-election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning, Frank Lautenberg is likely to break two new records -- he'll become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history, and he'll break his own record as the oldest person to ever win a statewide election in this state.  But there is one more record that Lautenberg could break -- the biggest winning percentage in a U.S. Senate race. That record belongs to Bill Bradley, who won 64.2% against Mary Mochary in 1984.  

Lautenberg could become the fifth Senator in state history to win more than 60% of the vote; if this is the last campaign for the 84-year-old Democrat, it's not a bad way to go out -- especially since Lautenberg has never passed the 54% mark before.  He won 50.9% against Millicent Fenwick in 1982, 53.5% against Peter Dawkins in 1988, 50.3% against Chuck Haytaian in 1994, and 53.9% against Douglas Forrester in 2002.

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Barack Obama and John McCain are tied 47%-47% in northwestern New Jersey, according to the new Quinnipiac University poll that looked at voters in Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Warren counties. In an October 19, 2004 Quinnipiac poll, George W. Bush led John Kerry in this same region by a 61%-28% margin. And in an October 12, 2006 Quinnipiac poll of the race for United States Senator, northwestern New Jersey voters favored Tom Kean, Jr. over Bob Menendez by a 66%-32% margin.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg and former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, the Republican, are in a statistical dead heat in these five Republican counties, with Lautenberg leading 47%-45.

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Democrats will pick up congressional seats of retiring Reps. Jim Saxton and Mike Ferguson as part of a national trend that will net them seven U.S. Senate seats and sixteen House seats national, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's Pindell Report, which provides independent analysis of federal and state races.

Pindell says that Democrat Frank Lautenberg will win re-election to the U.S. Senate and that Barack Obama will carry New Jersey and win its fifteen electoral votes.

"In two Republican-leaning districts, Democrats John Adler and Linda Stender are going to Congress," said Pindell. "Democrats have momentum and they're winning just about all of the marginal races."

The Pindell Report has the Senate at 58-41, and the House at 252-180.  The Senate races in Alaska, and House races in Florida, New Mexico and Kansas, remain toss-ups.

"The economy, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush combine to push Senate and House races that were toss-ups last week into the Democratic column," said Pindell.   "While the Democrats will control the White House and both houses of Congress, they won't get the 60 Senate seats they need for a filibuster-proof majority." Read More >

Politicians spin for a living, but they're rarely held accountable for what they say after the fact. So today I'm taking a look back on what they were saying about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin when she was announced as John McCain's vice presidential running mate.

State Sen. Bill Baroni predicted that Palin would appeal to "a broad spectrum of New Jersey voters," especially the state's "vast independent voting bloc." Asked about accusations that she pressured the former Commissioner of Public Safety to fire a state trooper, Baroni replied: "There's no evidence of it. It will be completely vetted [in] the next 48 hours."

In fact a bipartisan legislative panel found that Palin violated the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act when she "abused her power in pushing for the firing of an Alaska state trooper."

Baroni wasn't as far off on the other point, though. In the latest Survey USA poll, McCain leads among independents in New Jersey by 45 to 40 percent, although voters who identify as "moderate" break for Obama by 58 to 36 percent. Still, Obama has a 15 point lead in the poll.

State Sen. Kevin O'Toole called the Palin pick "a stroke of brilliance." If this is his idea of brilliance, I don't want to know what other good ideas O'Toole has in store.

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Frank Lautenberg, the overwhelming favorite to become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history, is planning on finishing the 2008 campaign with about $500,000 cash-on-hand, according to sources familiar with the Lautenberg campaign.  Comfortable with his own polling that shows he'll defeat Republican Dick Zimmer, the 84-year-old incumbent has no plans to use all his money this year.  That includes increased advertising dollars in areas of the state where congressional and local races remain competitive.  And Lautenberg has not been making major contributions to other Democrats in close races throughout the country.  But in the event that Zimmer surges at the end, Lautenberg will be prepared.

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Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park): Politicker file photo 

Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s (D-Cliffside Park) quarterly Federal Election Commission (FEC) report showed him hauling in $536,176.12 during the period ending Oct. 15.

The report indicates that Lautenberg had $1,290,970.79 at the beginning of the reporting period, allowed $905,572.81 in total disbursements, and now has $921,574.10 on hand.

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Frank Lautenberg, who has never amassed huge approval ratings in independent polls and has never won more than 55% of the vote in a general election, appears likely to become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history.  The 84-year-old Democrat  is positioned to break Clifford Case's record of 24 years in statewide office in December.  He has already passed Harrison Williams for number two on that list.

Some analysts say that Lautenberg has been lucky -- the fortunate beneficiary of the Republicans nominating the wrong candidate in each of his elections.  His first campaign was against Millicent Fenwick, an iconic 72-year-old Congresswoman who was the model for Doonsbury's Lacey Davenport character.  But Fenwick refused to raise PAC money and couldn't compete with Lautenberg's vast self-financed warchest.  Old-time GOP'ers say that Jim Courter, then a two-term Congressman, would have been a stronger candidate for the open Senate seat. 

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Lautenberg rallies with Bikers for Obama: Politicker photoWEST ORANGE - The leather-clad bikers roared into the parking lot, revving overtime - and they kept coming, motley in motion, mufflers drowning out the after effects of rhetoric, the noise near to deafening - as a senatorial figure with a shock of white hair practically broke from his handlers and strode down among them.

He looked so senatorial, in fact, that - was it actually...

Yes, it was definitely 84-year old U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) emerging from the opening of the Obama campaign’s West Orange headquarters and personally welcoming a newly formed Essex County club, Bikers for Obama, which this morning numbered about 200 strong.

U.S. Rep. Donald Payne (D-Newark) joined the senator, jumping aboard a Harley as one of the bikers outfitted Lautenberg with a leather vest.

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The NJ 101.5 radio debate scheduled later this month was one Frank Lautenberg quickly agreed to - in fact his campaign was the first to confirm its participation.

Could it be that Lautenberg isn't really "ducking debates" as Zimmer charged and the media reported?  Or is it that Millennium Radio's flagship station has matured from Animal House to "Meet the Press" standing in New Jersey politics?

"We'd like to think if someone is running for statewide political office, it's become a right of passage to appear on our station," offered Eric Scott, the station's news director.  "We've done a debate in every major political race over the last 15 years.

One of those debates featured a no-show Lautenberg, with his opponent Doug Forrester debating an empty chair. 

The station also believes it has the best format for these face-offs and offers the "only true debate" during the election cycle.

In the studio the candidates have no choice but to get up close - - and sometimes, personal - - with Scott serving as ringmaster.

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According to a Fairleigh Dickinson poll, Senator Frank Lautenberg leads Lobbyist Dick Zimmer by 16 points, 50-34 percent. Fourteen percent say they’re undecided.

So, if Lobbyist Zimmer by some amazing miracle can still somehow muster a coalition between his “Zimmer Supporters” and “The Undecideds” -- he will still be behind Frank Lautenberg 50-48. Where is the other 2 percent here? Where do they stand? Are they the Silent Minority? I am waiting for the poll folks at Fairleigh Dickenson to explain. I don't know.

However, there are more bad numbers for Lobbyist Zimmer: More than two-thirds of New Jersey’s most likely voters (71 percent) have no idea who Lobbyist Zimmer is. Have no opinion of him. More people have been to the Vince Lombardi Service Area, than know who Lobbyist Zimmer is. Tough to run in NJ if people have no idea who you are.

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