DICK ZIMMER

As he prepares to launch his bid for a second term, Governor Jon Corzine will seek to become the first Democrat not named Frank Lautenberg to win re-election in New Jersey since Bill Bradley just narrowly defeated Christine Todd Whitman in a U.S. Senate race nineteen years ago. 

Lautenberg's victory over Republican Dick Zimmer last year ended a fourteen-year drought for Democratic incumbents winning re-election.  The last time was in 1994, when Lautenberg beat Republican Garabed "Chuck" Haytaian, the Assembly Speaker.   During the subsequent fourteen years, no Democratic statewide officeholder was re-elected to a second term.

Republicans are looking to end twelve-year drought; they haven't won statewide since Whitman was re-elected Governor in 1997.  Since that election, Republican statewide candidates have been victorious  in 49 other states, as well as in Puerto Rico and Guam.

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State Sen. Joe Pennacchio’s (R-Montville) call for Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson to resign will not likely be answered in the affirmative, but whether Wilson will serve another two-year term is uncertain.

After Wilson’s term expires in June, tradition dictates that the Republican gubernatorial nominee gets to pick the next chairman. That choice will be ratified by the 42-member Republican State Committee, which will likely accede to the nominee’s pick.

“We have a tradition in the Republican Party that the successful gubernatorial nominee is the one who gets to decide who his or her state chair will be,” said Wilson, who said he did not want to respond to Pennacchio’s press release. “I expect that not to be any different. If there’s a nominee who wants to ask me if I’m interested in staying, that will be a discussion between that nominee and I.”

However, multiple Republican sources say that Wilson has never intended to seek another term as state chairman. In fact, there was talk of him stepping down before the primary, although he said today that he will serve until at least June.

Wilson, for his part, said that his decision in June will depend on “who that nominee is and what kind of vision they have going forward.”

"I will defer completely to the nominee, and if that person wants someone different that’s what they’re entitled to. If they want me to stick around for some period of time, we’ll have a discussion about that.”

 

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In the twelve states where Democratic U.S. Senators were seeking re-election in 2008, New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg had the second closest race.  Lautenberg beat former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer by a solid 56%-42% margin; the only Democratic Senator in a closer race was Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, who won 52%-46%.  Barack Obama won New Jersey 57%-42%, while John McCain carried Louisiana by a 59%-40% margin.

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Now it seems trendy to run for Congress, lose, then spend a lot of years in state government before finally making it to Washington.  In 2006, Albio Sires won an open House seat twenty years after his first attempt.  Sires had challenged U.S. Rep. Frank Guarini as a Republican in 1986; he later won local office in West New York, and after switching parties in 1999, he beat an incumbent Assemblyman in the Democratic primary.  He became Assembly Speaker after the 2001 election, and went to Congress after Bob Menendez joined the United States Senate.

Both of New Jersey's freshmen Congressman had previously lost House races.  John Adler ran against Jim Saxton in 1990 and lost 60%-40%.  A year later, despite one of the two biggest Republican landslides in state political history, he ousted four-term GOP State Sen. Lee Laskin.  Leonard Lance first ran for Congress in 1996, when Richard Zimmer gave up his seat to run for U.S. Senate; he finished third in the GOP primary, behind Michael Pappas and John Bennett. Lance moved from the Assembly to the Satate Senate in 2001, and became Minority Leader in 2004.

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Frank Lautenberg becomes the first U.S. Senator from New Jersey to win a fifth term, but didn't set any records for winning percentages.  His 56% against former U.S. Rep. Richard Zimmer was his career best, but he didn't approach the 60% mark that Bill Bradley, Clifford Case and Harrison Williams had achieved back in a time when the state was more politically competitive.  Still, the 84-year-old Democrat is secure for the next six years, and did not have to sweat much after pushing back a primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews.

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In battleground Monmouth County, where Democrats hoped to dropkick Republicans from the top down, it didn’t happen.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) defeated Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) here by 51.26 percent to 47.39 percent, or 159,461 to 147,424 votes. While losing statewide, GOP U.S. Senate candidate Dick Zimmer defeated U.S.  Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) in Monmouth by a 51.95 percent 45.59 percent.

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The Associated Press is projecting Democrat Frank Lautenberg as the winner in the race for U.S. Senator.  Lautenberg, 84, becomes the first person in New Jersey history to win five terms in the U.S. Senate.  He defeated Republican Richard Zimmer, 64, a former three-term Congressman.

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CLIFFSIDE PARK -- U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) was in a jubilant mood after voting for himself this morning – so much so that, flanked by his grandchildren, he kicked off his brief press availability with some poetry.

“The sun is shining, the spirits are bright, there’s hope for America after this night,” he said while standing just outside the elementary school that serves as his polling place.

Lautenberg, 84, started off his press availability by praising Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, calling what he expects to be his imminent election a transformational moment.

“It’s really an exciting day, an exciting moment. America is on a journey. Today I think we’ll see the transformation of our country. The substance of Barack Obama as a favorite son of all of America, transcending any concerns of color, religion, culture – that’s gone. And Barack Obama is going to deliver that freedom to the American people,” he said. “As for me, I’ve been here before. Some of you have been too.”

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It's election eve, which means that it's time to journey up the Ivory Tower to hear what political analysts think will happen tomorrow.

The four analysts PolitickerNJ.com talked to today were unanimous in predicting a big win for Barack Obama over John McCain both nationally and in New Jersey, and were nearly certain that incumbent U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) would easily beat down the challenge by former Rep. Dick Zimmer.   

They were also unanimous in picking state Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) over Republican Medford Mayor Chris Myers in the 3rd Congressional District.

Three out of four predicated that U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) would beat challenger Dennis Shulman in the 5th District, but by a narrow margin.  

Three out of four also felt that Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) had the edge in her race against state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) in the 7th Congressional District, while one gave Lance a narrow victory. Read More >

The Pindell Report, Politicker.com's political and campaign forecast, has released its final projections for Election Day. Using polling, historical and demographic trends, tracking campaign visits and spending, The Pindell Report ranks races in terms of their competitiveness and their status as either a toss-up or leaning or likely voting in a particular way.

In New Jersey, The Pindell Report's final breakdown is as follows:

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