Wally Edge's blog

With a 22-point lead in his bid for re-election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning, Frank Lautenberg is likely to break two new records -- he'll become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history, and he'll break his own record as the oldest person to ever win a statewide election in this state.  But there is one more record that Lautenberg could break -- the biggest winning percentage in a U.S. Senate race. That record belongs to Bill Bradley, who won 64.2% against Mary Mochary in 1984.  

Lautenberg could become the fifth Senator in state history to win more than 60% of the vote; if this is the last campaign for the 84-year-old Democrat, it's not a bad way to go out -- especially since Lautenberg has never passed the 54% mark before.  He won 50.9% against Millicent Fenwick in 1982, 53.5% against Peter Dawkins in 1988, 50.3% against Chuck Haytaian in 1994, and 53.9% against Douglas Forrester in 2002.

Published reports that Paramus Council President Frank Ciambrone is being sued by the state Attorney General for allegedly scamming homeowners using “bogus foreclosure rescue schemes” won’t help the already embattled Democrat win re-election in November.  Ciambrone is already in trouble for his close ties to Dennis Oury, the former Paramus Borough Attorney who was indicted on federal corruption charges.  Oury has billed Paramus nearly $800,000 in legal fees since Democrats took control, and has been one of the top donors to the local Democratic organization.Republicans have criticized him for taking nearly $300,000 in legal fees from the Bergen County Utility Authority over the last four years. And Paramus is one of the towns the received subpoenas as part of the federal probe of Oury and Democratic County Chairman Joseph Ferriero, who is also facing federal corruption charges.

The Fuzzy Math Award for 2008 goes to the campaign coordinator for Democrat Tom Wyka, who attempts to spell out exactly how Rodney Frelinghuysen will lose his seat in Congress next month.  Milin Shah cites the Wyka campaign's "current polling" as evidence of the suddenly competitive race in this strongly-Republican congressional district, although the last Federal Election Commission report shows more money spent at Blimpie's in Morristown than on polling (zero). Wyka has recieved $60,001, as of his last report.

The text of the Wyka statement:

Barack Obama and John McCain are tied 47%-47% in northwestern New Jersey, according to the new Quinnipiac University poll that looked at voters in Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Warren counties. In an October 19, 2004 Quinnipiac poll, George W. Bush led John Kerry in this same region by a 61%-28% margin. And in an October 12, 2006 Quinnipiac poll of the race for United States Senator, northwestern New Jersey voters favored Tom Kean, Jr. over Bob Menendez by a 66%-32% margin.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg and former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, the Republican, are in a statistical dead heat in these five Republican counties, with Lautenberg leading 47%-45.

As Barack Obama hovers around the 60% mark in New Jersey, Democrats could be the beneficiary of some significant coattails. While Democrats are already favored in two key congressional races where Republican incumbents are retiring, an Obama landslide could offer coattails in several other competitive races: in Bergen County, where County Clerk Kathleen Donovan is seeking a fifth term, and where Democrats are defending three Freeholder seats following the indictment of County Chairman Joseph Ferriero; in Monmouth County, where Democrats need to win one Freeholder seat to win majority control; in Somerset County, where Democrats now have an edge in voter registration for the first time in state history; in races for County Clerk and Freeholder in Burlington County; in races for Atlantic County Sheriff and Freeholder; and in Freeholder contests in Cumberland and Salem counties.

Despite major endorsements from prominent Democrats like former New Jersey Secretary of State Joan Haberle and her daughter, Dawn, and support from Alfredo Gutierrez, the owner of Xtra Supermarket in Newark, John McCain has fallen far behind Barack Obama in the race for New Jersey's fifteen electoral votes.  A Quinnipiac University poll released this morning has Obama with a 23-point lead, 59%-36%, while a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows similar numbers: Obama 55%, McCain 38%.

State Sen. Paul Sarlo is stable, conscious and breathing on his own, according to a close friend who called the emergency this morning "very serious."

Frank Lautenberg, the overwhelming favorite to become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history, is planning on finishing the 2008 campaign with about $500,000 cash-on-hand, according to sources familiar with the Lautenberg campaign.  Comfortable with his own polling that shows he'll defeat Republican Dick Zimmer, the 84-year-old incumbent has no plans to use all his money this year.  That includes increased advertising dollars in areas of the state where congressional and local races remain competitive.  And Lautenberg has not been making major contributions to other Democrats in close races throughout the country.  But in the event that Zimmer surges at the end, Lautenberg will be prepared.

Rumors that U.S. Senator Robert Menendez will endorse Dr. Alex Blanco for Mayor of Passaic are not true, according to sources close to the Menendez camp.  Menendez met privately with Blanco about two months ago, but has decided to stay out of the race and will not endorse anyone.

Lisa Jackson will become the first African American to serve as Chief of Staff to the Governor of New Jersey.  She is Jon Corzine's third Chief of Staff since he took office in January 2006.  Expect other staff changes over the next few months.  It is anticipated that Deputy Chief of Staff Maggie Moran will leave the front office to manage Corzine's re-election campaign, and insiders say that Deputy Chief of Staff Patti Nelson McGuire and Policy Director Adam Zellner are also expected to leave by January.