New Jersey Republicans think they see something that congressional prognosticators don’t: vulnerable House Democrats in districts 6 and 12.

Both are home to well-entrenched and well-funded incumbents: Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) in the 6th, and Rush Holt (D-Hopewell) in the 12th.  And both have significant Democratic registration advantages over Republicans. 

In fact, in normal years, those who choose to run against incumbents like Holt and Pallone are jokingly termed “Kamikaze candidates.”  This year, however, is different. Republican Gov. Christopher Christie beat Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by significant margins in both districts, and with 2010 shaping up to be a good year for Republicans nationally, Republicans are eagerly lining up for a chance to run.

In Holt’s district, Fair Haven Mayor Michael Halfacre and Princeton venture capitalist Scott Sipprelle are locked in a contentious Republican primary.  Sipprelle even put a quarter million dollars out of his own pocket into his race to start and has pledged to match at least $1 million in donations.   In Pallone’s district, Highlands Mayor Anna Little and Two River Times publisher Diane Gooch are preparing for a primary, with Gooch putting in $150,000 of her own money and pledging to match all further donations. 

But neither race has made so much as a blip on the radar screens of the three major House race forecasters.

“I think that Democrats would have to slide even more from where they are now for these seats to be competitive,” said Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman.

The Cook Political Report’s Web site puts both districts as “Solid D” – the safest ranking the Democratic incumbents could hope to have. 

Pallone and Holt have faced difficult races in their careers, but have been largely unchallenged since members of the state’s delegation from both major parties got safer districts after the last redistricting at the beginning of the decade.    

“These seats would be outside possibilities under the pre-2002 lines. Redistricting has made both the 6th and the 12th very difficult for Republicans to reach, even in a year like 2010,” said Wasserman. “Yes its true Republicans have won in places that are that Democratic, when you look at Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts.  But Republicans are unlikely to recreate the same circumstances that allowed that to happen, since both Pallone and Holt are pretty strong incumbents.”

Tod Theise

Tod Theise, a Republican-turned-Democrat who ran for Warren County freeholder last year, has decided to challenge U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage).

“I view politics as a calling that demands public servants act as just that – servants of the people.  Far too many elected officials sell their souls to special interests in return for the money that fuels their political careers,” said Theise in a written statement.

Theise lives in Washington Township and works as a litigation analyst at Sullivan & Cromwell LLP.  He is a former West Orange Republican chairman and aide to former Essex County Executive James Treffinger.   He was the GOP candidate for State Assembly in 2003, losing to incumbents John McKeon (D-West Orange) and Mims Hackett (D-Orange).

Theise has already won the support of the Warren County Democratic Party and expects to receive the endorsement of the Sussex Democrats, but he did not compete for the support of the Bergen County Democratic Organization, where most of the district’s population – and even more of its Democratic vote – resides  (Bergen Democrats did not pick a candidate for Congress against Garrett at their convention last week). 

In an email message to PolitickerNJ.com, Theise acknowledged that taking on Garrett was a long shot.

Former Gov. Jon Corzine has not gone quietly, not that current Gov. Christopher Christie has let the public forget him.

Virtually every time Christie announces a new budget fix in response to a problem that he pins squarely on the previous administration, Corzine aide Josh Zeitz has a response ready to go. 

Two Democratic senators, one a former acting governor and one former Corzine running mate for lieutenant governor, agree that Christie ought to stop criticizing Corzine.  But they differ whether Zeitz needs to be so zealous in defending his legacy. 

“History is going to defend Jon Corzine’s legacy,” said state Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck), who counted Corzine as a friend in her battles with a Bergen County Democratic party boss and, in the aftermath of July’s massive corruption sweep, became his candidate for lieutenant governor. 

Nevertheless, Weinberg said she does not blame Corzine for speaking out through his spokesman.  She does not think it will hurt Democrats, even though post-election public opinion polls show Corzine to be unpopular. 

“I don’t think it makes much difference one way or the other.  If we’re talking about the residents generally, they’re worried about getting a job, keeping a job, paying their taxes and education their kids,” she said.

Weinberg said that Corzine would be remembered as a champion for the children and the poor who doesn’t need to “feel defensive about his program of giving children educational opportunities through pre-school, of insuring residents through family care.” 

State Sen. Richard Codey (D-Roseland), the former acting governor who was known to privately clash with Corzine, did think that Zeitz should pipe down.

TRENTON --- State Sen. Kevin O’Toole (R-Cedar Grove) says that Republicans will give Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo a “run for his money” this year.

“We have two candidates in mind. They haven’t been ratified yet. But we have petitions out there,” said O’Toole, who doubles as GOP chairman in traditionally Democratic Essex County.

O’Toole wouldn’t name the candidate, only saying that he or she would be part of a “diverse ticket.”  But it is expected that Republicans will pick Herbert Glenn, a Newark resident with a history of running long shot candidacies.  He ran for state senate against Ronald Rice (D-Newark) in 2007 and assembly against Cleopatra Tucker (D-Newark) and Ralph Caputo (D-Belleville) in 2009, in what is one of the most Democratic legislative districts in the state.

DiVincenzo is not expected to have a hard time securing a third term, and despite his opposite party label, O’Toole has long been considered his and North Ward power broker Steve Adubato’s ally. 

“I recognize it’s an uphill battle,” said O’Toole.  “He’s a maniac in many ways.  He is tireless, he works hard, but that’s not to say he will be without a challenge.  I don’t mean that in a disparaging way…. You still have the issue that taxes continue to go up. Bonding continues to be a problem.”