Alexander steers Jersey's Obama campaign toward Feb. 5th

Campaign volunteer Bettie Anderson, left, and campaign field director Maureen Tracey-Mooney 

OBAMA I

On the day of the Iowa caucuses, the New Jersey state director of Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign has one immediate strategy, win or lose: on the next morning he’s going to stand up volunteers at different locales: the George Washington Bridge in Fort Lee, Newark Penn Station, Jersey City. They will be out there waving "Obama" signs, staying visible, shouting, working.

"We were always the candidate talking about change, that message hasn’t changed," says Mark Alexander, 41, seated in his West Orange office on Thursday, composed given the stakes. Obama’s wife said if they didn’t win Iowa, the campaign would be finished.

"Fundamentally," says Alexander, "we are content that we are offering something the American people really want."

If Alexander seems calm, maybe it’s because he’s been there in the furnaces of campaigns before and dealt with the outcomes. He ran Sen. Bill Bradley’s 2000 presidential bid and lost, and Cory Booker’s 2006 mayoral campaign and won.

The Seton Hall University law professor grew up in a political family. His father, Clifford Alexander, was chairman of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission under President Lyndon Johnson, and later served as Secretary of the Army for President Jimmy Carter.

"My first campaign was when my father ran for mayor of Washington, D.C. in the Democratic Primary in 1974," says Alexander. "That was the year I turned 10. Dad called me his campaign manager.

"Everyone knows I’m a political nerd," he adds, "but I can’t help it. It’s important and it’s fun."

An English professor at the University of Chicago, Alexander’s sister has long known Obama’s wife, Michelle. Around a dozen years ago she called her brother and told him he had to meet Obama because the two men have a lot in common.

"We’ve kept a friendship over the years," says Alexander, "and one day in January of last year he called me up and said, ‘Do you want to help me run this campaign?’"

It was no agonizing choice to hear the state chair tell it. Obama is the same in public as he is in private, and goes out of his way to maintain open-ended dialogues with people who disagree with him, says Alexander, who started as policy chief a year ago, dividing his time between Washington and Chicago before taking charge of the New Jersey ground game.

Despite Alexander’s optimism about Obama, other Democratic Party allies in the African American community don’t believe the candidate can win a general election.

"The reality is America isn’t ready," says guarded Obama supporter Irvington Council President John Sowell. "If Obama wins Iowa, it’s not going to make a difference. He’s a cross-over candidate, but America isn’t ready."

It’s 3 p.m. on Thursday, or four hours before the caucuses are scheduled to begin in Iowa, and Alexander insists an Obama victory in the first primary state would propel the junior senator to a win in South Carolina, where half of the Democratic Party primary voting population is African American.

"People will have concrete evidence that Barack Obama has real support in a state where there is a large white rural population," he says. "It’s going to be amazing for African Americans to see a strong showing by Barack Obama. A lot of African Americans are asking, ‘Can he do it,’ and Iowa’s going to say, ‘Yes, he can do it.’"

Alexander and his team are coordinating 30 caucus watching parties around New Jersey for later in the evening. In the hallway near the cubicles of several volunteers who are making phone calls to voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, the Obama signs are ready for the morning.

"We’ve got to do well in these early states and carry the momentum to the Feb. 5th states, like New Jersey," says Alexander.

CLINTON

Later in the day, at roughly 5:30 p.m., across from the State Capitol, Sen. Hillary Clinton’s New Jersey allies officially open the doors to the campaign’s anchor headquarters.

As news of the Iowa caucuses broadcasts into the small crowded room, State Director Karen Kominsky says the campaign is also opening headquarters in Cherry Hill, Long Branch and Bayonne, with more offices to follow.

Clinton Campaign State Director Karen Kominsky

"This is a great night for us, we’ve been working hard over the last couple of months," Kominsky tells the group of campaign volunteers and fundraisers, including state Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman, Mercer County Executive Brian Hughes and later U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews.

Most of the public people here have their own Clinton stories. These are politicians and operators who go back to the 1990s with Bill and Hillary and they smile as they recollect the pleasures of working with or running in the company of the former president.

"In 1991, I ran against U.S. Rep. Chris Smith and was beaten," says Hughes. "I had the honor of being on a ticket with Mr. Clinton, who of course went on to win that year."

In an acknowledgment of her first attempt to secure universal health insurance coverage during her husband’s first term, Andrews says, "I have no doubt Hillary Clinton will get healthcare done for every American."U.S. Rep. Bob Andrews

The news that Obama leads Clinton by seven percentage points inevitably injects a slight nervousness into the laughter, triggers a flash of grimness in the stares that drift from the tv screen back to the other faces in the group. But there are enough warriors in the room to keep the mood from going sour.  Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman

One woman describes not understanding a position paper released by the campaign. When she asked for a clarification she immediately received one to her liking.

"She’s going to be on top no matter what happens in Iowa," Watson Coleman says of Clinton. "This is the beginning of the real campaign season. It’s really going to build at this point. It’s going to be so exciting on Feb. 5th. I think she’s an incredibly strong leader, and the best tested, with the capacity to bring people together. She’s ready to lead the day she’s sworn in.

"Plus," Watson Coleman says, "she’s got one of the greatest assets, which is Bill Clinton."

EDWARDS

It’s 7:30 p.m.

In a basement tavern in New Brunswick, fewer than a dozen Sen. John Edwards supporters watch Wolf Blitzer on a suspended television set and reminisce about the pre-scream Howard Dean glory days of 2004. Several of them canvassed for Dean going back to April of 2003, including Jeff Gardner, Carol Hornline, Chip Robinson and Mitch Manzella.

Edwards supporters, from left: Carol Hornline, Chip Robinson and Jeff Gardner

"This campaign doesn’t have the energy of the Dean campaign," admits Manzella.

Someone suggests that because Edwards voted for the War in Iraq he doesn’t have the credibility to stir energy for another presidential campaign, and Manzella concedes he was worried early about Edwards’ affirmative vote authorizing President George W. Bush to go to war.

"I asked Joe Trippi the same question," he says. "He told me the Obama Campaign has a lot of heart but they’re not really well organized."

Anne Baker, party chair in Roosevelt, turns around on her stool at the bar. "At least Edwards apologized for his war vote instead of trying to justify it and then reinforcing it with subsequent votes," she says.

While the war question persists in the minds of some of these Edwards supporters, their overriding issue is restoring economic fairness. Their commitment to the former North Carolina senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee derives in large measure from their belief that he best represents an America that rewards work instead of wealth.

"I like what Obama says, but when Edwards says it, I believe it," says Manzella. "Edwards is more substantive than Obama."

As for Clinton, there’s a nagging sense here that she’d have a tough time prevailing in a general election. "The trouble with Hillary is she’d drum up Republican turnout," says Robinson of Morris Township.

A.J. Sabath and Sen. Joseph Vitale

Sen. Joseph Vitale arrives, along with Senate President Richard Codey’s Chief of Staff A.J. Sabath. Amid half fretful, half cheerful muttered comments about low turnout, down along the bar, someone screams and anyone who turns and looks sees a figure with two fists frozen in midair.

The celebration proves premature. At the moment, with 2% of the state’s precincts accounted for, Edwards has a slight lead.

Mike Beson of Ocean looks up at the television screen as Blitzer launches into another round of talking head interviews. Romney will win. Edwards will win. Clinton will win. We really can’t say who will win. "This is torture," says Beson.

Talk strays to other matters. Basketball. State politics. Gossip.

"None of the Democrats have done the job that Dean did four years ago," says a voice at the bar.

OBAMA II

Two hours later, midway between New Brunswick and Newark, a news broadcaster on the radio calls the Republican race in Iowa for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

At the Robert Treat Hotel downtown, the Obama diehards begin streaming into the bar and there are hugs and grins amid what CNN projects will be an Obama victory. He ends up winning Iowa with 38%, while Edwards garners 30% and Clinton gets 29%.

U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman"It’s a tremendous upset," says U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman, northeast regional co-chair for the Obama campaign. "This is a junior senator who has defeated a former first lady and a former vice presidential candidate by a decisive margin. Iowans believe Sen. Obama is special and deserving."

Neither Clinton, whose husband depicted her as an agent for change, nor Edwards, could embody the message most voters craved, according to the Congressman.

"He is an authentic agent of change," Rothman says of Obama. "If he were elected, the message he would present to the world is that America gets it. We understand that the last seven years under Bush have been a disaster. People around the world would see that America, the land of such idealism and hope, is back, and that the callous and cynical George Bush era is over."

Newark Mayor Cory Booker arrives, beaming and huddling with fellow Obama supporters. He notes that Obama’s and Edwards’ percentages together add up to two-thirds of the voters in Iowa registering votes against Sen. Clinton.

"The voters are clearly looking for change," Booker says and when he’s asked about Obama’s message compared to his own in the 2006 election, he says, "That’s the strength we have in Newark, where the electorate has embraced change as it swept in a new city council.

Mayor Cory Booker"Obama is a generational verification that more people are participating than have ever participated before," the mayor adds. "The beauty of the Obama campaign is in his reminder that we have so much more in common than we have differences."

Having opened their offices on the same day their candidate suffered her loss, the Clinton people in Jersey withstand the shock wave out of Iowa with a nod to what is only an evolving contest.

"It’s not good news for Iowa," campaign spokesman and State Party Chair Joe Cryan says on the cellphone. "But it’s good news for New Jersey. The message from this is, ‘Let’s wake up and get to work.’ The real start of the campaign is tonight."

Amid the revelry at Robert Treat, the Obama people also acknowledge Iowa’s only the beginning and say they have no allusions about New Hampshire on Jan. 8th and the days following.

"We have to anticipate that she’s going to go nuclear in New Hampshire," West Ward Councilman Ron Rice, Jr., says of Clinton. "She’s going to get visceral and negative. She’s going to remind us of the nasty tone of politics in the 1990s, and Obama in turn is going to remind us that what he offers is a complete departure from that kind of politics. She’s going to find an electorate that doesn’t want to go there again."

But mostly the mood is joyful.

"Tonight was breaking the glass ceiling night," says Rice. "African Americans saw that Obama is not simply what the Joshua Generation needs but what America needs right now. This is every bit the next step in the civil rights movement."

All over the state, Obama supporters are celebrating.Councilman Ron Rice, Jr.

In Brick, Stacy Lubrecht, Ocean County co-chair of NJ for Obama, says, "You’re seeing people who are believing in this country again. What happened tonight is just a testimony to everything we’ve been seeing on the local level.

"This is fantastic," says NJ for Obama State Chair Keith Hovey. "I’d be lying if I told you he’d do this well. We’re very optimistic about New Hampshire, but the nomination is by no means secure."

In Perth Amboy, Julie Diaz, who has volunteered with NJ for Obama from the beginning and is the organization's vice chair, says, "We’ve known it, and we have been confident, but to actually see it happen makes me emotional, proud and hopeful."

Navigating the room in the Robert Treat Hotel in Newark, his mood by outward appearances unchanged from the country's uncertainty of the afternoon, Alexander works his phone and works the crowd. He says people in Iowa got the message and the campaign has to keep the momentum going.

"Tomorrow is another day to get Barack Obama’s message out there," says the state director, whose people, he says, will be on the train platforms on Friday with their signs, fired up and ready to go, at 6:30 a.m.