Ed Rollins, who managed Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection victory in 1984 and Christie Whitman’s come-from-behind gubernatorial victory in 1993 is the best Republican strategist I have ever met. With regard to negative campaigning, Rollins has often said the following: “When a candidate launches a negative campaign, he will in virtually every case see his own negative poll numbers increase. The key is to make sure that the negative attack results in his opponent’s negative numbers increasing more than his own.”
It is clear from today’s Quinnipiac Poll results that the Corzine political “brain trust” forgot the Rollins words of wisdom when they launched the negative campaign against Chris Christie involving George W. Bush and Michele Brown. Although I support Chris Christie, I have not hesitated to criticize in my PolitickerNJ.com column the Christie political “brain trust” for what I regard to be strategic flaws. Today, however, it is my turn to criticize the Corzine political “brain trust” for a negative strategy that I regard as “brain dead.”
As shown by today’s Quinnipiac Poll results, the electorate has resoundingly judged this Bush/Brown strategy to be both unfair and irrelevant in a New Jersey beset with a worsening economy, skyrocketing taxes, a deteriorating environment, and the exodus of numerous wealthy New Jerseyans who have constituted one of the Garden State’s major sources of revenue. Indeed, if today’s Quinnipiac numbers hold through November 3, Jon Corzine may be the next wealthy taxpayer to depart New Jersey for another state due to the prohibitively high income tax rates he created.
The negative strategy of the Corzine campaign has resulted in an increase of Chris Christie’s lead over Corzine from six to ten points in today’s Quinnipiac Poll. There is, however, even worse news for Corzine in the poll. His lead over Chris Christie among Democrats has declined from 81%-9% to 74%-15%. That suggests something that must be even more disturbing to the Corzine campaign regarding their “positive” strategy.
The “positive” strategy component of the Corzine campaign was based almost solely on the appeal of President Barack Obama to Democrats, particularly minority and urban voters. It appears from today’s Quinnipiac Poll that the Obama appeal has taken Corzine as far as it will go among Democrats and indeed may create a backlash against Corzine among non-Democrat voters who have turned against the President primarily due to his health care proposals and a nightmarish federal deficit and debt outlook.
While I have often felt that the Christie political “brain trust” members have overrated the Obama appeal to non-Democrats, I do believe that they have been wise and prudent in avoiding attacking the President. Such a negative onslaught might create a backlash against Christie in the African-American and Hispanic communities, resulting in a larger turnout for Corzine on Election Day from voters from these constituencies.
At the same time, however, I would not be surprised if movement conservative independent expenditure organizations campaign in New Jersey with television commercials blasting the President for his health care proposals and encouraging voters to “send a message” to Barack Obama on Election Day by voting against Jon Corzine. These groups, of course, must have no communication with the Christie campaign or New Jersey Republican State Committee, and they will make there own judgments as to whether to involve themselves in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest.
I do not know of any organizations planning to do this, but movement conservatives are not oblivious to the negative outcry that greeted Democrat Representative Steve Rothman at his town meeting on Obamacare in Bergen County. They also must be aware of the fact that newly elected Democrat Representative John Adler, one of the most politically astute Democrats I have known in my years of New Jersey politics, has said that the current Democratic House of Representatives health care proposal “isn’t good for America”. The New Jersey 2009 gubernatorial race may well be a testing ground for movement conservative anti-Obama efforts presently planned for the 2010 Congressional races.
Let me emphasize that I am not saying that this campaign is over and that Chris and Mary Pat Christie can begin loading up the trucks for a move in January to Drumthwacket. I would feel more certain of a Christie victory, as I have said in previous columns, if he would propound a property tax platform. At the same time, however, it appears that the Corzine positive “Obama” strategy and negative Bush/Brown strategy are both dead in the water as we approach the traditional Labor Day campaign kickoff.
In order to win reelection, the Corzine campaign will have to develop entirely new positive and negative strategies. I am not saying that this is totally impossible, but it may be necessary for the Corzine political “brain trust” to literally reinvent the Governor in order to increase his positive numbers. This task will fall to Jamie Fox, former Chief of Staff to both Jim McGreevey and Bob Torricelli.
Jamie is one of the most competent professionals I have met during my decades of involvement in New Jersey politics and government, but even he cannot make the Red Sea part. His challenge is like that of Johnny Unitas, the greatest quarterback of his era, when he came onto the Orange Bowl gridiron in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl III, January 12, 1969, to replace Earl Morrall with his Baltimore Colts down 16-0 to the nineteen point underdog New York Jets, led by Broadway Joe Namath. Unitas led the Colts to one touchdown, but that was it – the Jets scored the greatest upset in the history of pro football with a 16-7 victory.
It was too late for Johnny Unitas to work a miracle in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl III. It may indeed be too late for Jamie Fox to work a miracle in Governor’s Race 2009.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations.
Weinberg: 'history is going to defend Jon Corzine’s legacy'Former Gov. Jon Corzine has not gone quietly, not that current Gov. Christopher Christie has let the public forget him. Virtually every time Christie announces a new budget fix in response to a problem that he pins squarely on the previous administration,...
"I think he could be more civil. This is not necessary. I wish him a lot of luck. I have seen enough to know that this is the toughest job in America. I would never, ever wish this job on my worst enemy." -- Joshua Zeitz, a spokesman for former Gov. Jon Corzine, on Gov. Chris Christie.
- The Record, 03/12/10Press releases are submitted by PolitickerNJ users, not by staff. They do not represent the viewpoint of PolitickerNJ.com.
Allen, this ones for You.
You can be cynical all you want. But while you watch California burn know that it was a Democratic Governor who stopped unfettered development of the wetlands, it was a Democratic Governor who was forced to equalize education and rose to the occasion, it was a Democratic Governor who at least tried to balance the budget and we (meaning YOU) crucified him for it. Thanks Allen, your a great American!
Equalized Education????
When and where did that happen?
Do the people in the Abbott Districts know about this? Has this equalization found its' way into the classroom?
Because the latest stats from the NJ DOE show quite the opposite. There has not been any improvement in high school drop out rates and more and more students can't pass the high school exit exam so they get to take a personal test devised just for them so that they can get a diploma with their eighth-grade reading and math skills. While funding to these districts increase and increase.
If this is equalized, I hope the labor market is sensitive enough to adjust for these high school graduates with 8th grade skills.
But Corzine continues to pump money and support the current system as much as possible. And for his campaign, he promises more of the same.
Equal education
You may know better than I but my understanding is that New Jersey's education funding formula was deemed unconstitutional by the NJ Supreme Court. Kean fought like hell against any changes and when Florio was elected he was confronted with either continuing to flaunt the law or try to find a remedy, Ala, Abbot Districts.
However, Regional Cooperation Agreements had the effect of trapping children and their families in dense, urban and often substandard educational circumstances. And here is where I agree with you and the evidence you cite bears it out; throwing money at the problem will not work
The abolition of RCA's that Governor Corzine signed will allow for children of different socio-economic backgrounds to grow together and learn from each other. Perhaps if kids had friends who were going to college, who were filling out applications, who had a future, they would follow.
I don't know what is going on in the Abbot districts but I'm willing to bet it ain't pretty. But can we agree that with the abolition of RCA's and the enforcement of COAH, Abbot Districts may become a thing of the past?
See I believe that where you live may be a reflection of your status in life and that's fair enough because usually you worked your ass off to get there. But public education is not supposed to be something we bequeth to our children based upon where we live. Chris Christie has stated quite clearly that he does and will do every thing in his power to gut COAH. Then we can have Abbot forever!
Education is A Civil Right
and the system we have now, the same system that Corzine supports and refuses to address its' problems and inequities, is a basic violation of those rights. Corzine has made it clear that he believes the system needs more money to work.
New Jersey has the highest per pupil spending in the US & this has been true for many, many years. The Abbotts have some of the highest drop out rates with more than half of their graduates getting high school diplomas with reading and math skills no higher than the average NJ eighth grader.
How many more students must we lose to a truly unfair, unequitable system to get even a modicum of reform? How much more in taxation can the average NJ family pay to an obviously failing system?
The bottom line..........The state of New Jersey gets a grade F in education.
Christie recognizes that the system is flawed and has made it clear that he supports alternatives - he is willing to look at innovative ideas that are already working in other parts of the country.
We need to truly address the Abbott School situation and it isn't coming from the current administration.
What Ideas?
The only ideas I've heard of is expanding credits for private school. What is Christies plan?
And second, what do you think the effect of rolling back COAH for education will be?
I'm not trying to get argumentative I really want to know what you think.
OK I'm looking
Went to the Chrisitie website. I see what your talking about. No vouchers are even there so I was wrong on that. My bad! There is an emphasis on Charter Schools, something called CityTrak and money following the children where they go. Alright, I'm with you here. But what about the expansion of preschool under Corzine?
And what does this do to address concentrated poverty? As a matter of fact Christie wants more people to move into urban centers. You want to move to Newark?
I'm gonna chew on this for a while. See you Jersey Ed. I'm not convinced but this looks like the Corzine/NJEA underbelly.
aNOTHER Kool Aide Drinker
While Corzine's numbers have not improved much, Christie has seen his 50% number drop under that benchmark and his negatives have increased by almost 10%.
Given the fact that the ads that are being run are pretty weak, I fear what they will come out with next. My guess is the real neasty stuff has not even begun yet.
Alan is right, but Christie might nott make it
Of course negative campaigning can and often does work depending upon the quality and quantity of the ads and when and where they are run. And negative campaigning can backfire to some degree.
But here's the rub: I conducted my own straw poll of women voters, some of whom I know to be GOP leaners in general elections. Most of the women I polled had never really seen Chris Christie. Most of them are not yet tuned into the campaign, but all said they voted in the last gubernatorial election and intend to vote in this one. Most were registered independents.
I showed the women I polled a somewhat flattering, full body photo of Mr. Christie. Almost all of the women polled said they had no idea Christie was so overweight. I asked them if his excess weight bothered them; they almost all said yes and that could influence their vote. When asked why it would influence their vote, they said that obesity is a refection of poor character and self discipline, something they don't want in a governor.
Women outvote men by a wide margin. In my view, once the campaign gets into full swing following Labor Day, the Corzine camp might go negative with lots of unflattering, full body photos of Mr. Christie. If my straw poll has any legs and the ladies are paying attention, Christie could lose this one on looks alone.
Excellent analysis
The author is correct in all of his assumptions on this race and the departure of Joe Roberts confirms those political realities. Corzine has nothing to say because he hasn't done anything in four years. Those closest to Corzine will readily admit he is a governor without accomplishment or record. His soft policy wonk approach to government and low key personality energizes nothing and no one except paid consultants looking for one more big payday before this guy is out of politics for good. Corzine should be running to the right of Christie on fiscal issues like cutting the size of state government. It's the best kept secret of the campaign. Corzine has surrounded himself with the most expensive, overpaid, under perfroming political operatives in memory. Hard core leftists completely out-of-step with political reality that keep telling themselves NJ is the bluest state in the nation. Can you say Speaker DeCroce? Vote Column "A"- All the way!