Quinnipiac Verdict: Corzine’s Negative Strategy Has Backfired

Ed Rollins, who managed Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection victory in 1984 and Christie Whitman’s come-from-behind gubernatorial victory in 1993 is the best Republican strategist I have ever met.  With regard to negative campaigning, Rollins has often said the following: “When a candidate launches a negative campaign, he will in virtually every case see his own negative poll numbers increase.  The key is to make sure that the negative attack results in his opponent’s negative numbers increasing more than his own.”

It is clear from today’s Quinnipiac Poll results that the Corzine political “brain trust” forgot the Rollins words of wisdom when they launched the negative campaign against Chris Christie involving George W. Bush and Michele Brown.  Although I support Chris Christie, I have not hesitated to criticize in my PolitickerNJ.com column the Christie political “brain trust” for what I regard to be strategic flaws. Today, however, it is my turn to criticize the Corzine political “brain trust” for a negative strategy that I regard as “brain dead.”

As shown by today’s Quinnipiac Poll results, the electorate has resoundingly judged this Bush/Brown strategy to be both unfair and irrelevant in a New Jersey beset with a worsening economy, skyrocketing taxes, a deteriorating environment, and the exodus of numerous wealthy New Jerseyans who have constituted one of the Garden State’s major sources of revenue.  Indeed, if today’s Quinnipiac numbers hold through November 3, Jon Corzine may be the next wealthy taxpayer to depart New Jersey for another state due to the prohibitively high income tax rates he created.

The negative strategy of the Corzine campaign has resulted in an increase of Chris Christie’s lead over Corzine from six to ten points in today’s Quinnipiac Poll.  There is, however, even worse news for Corzine in the poll.  His lead over Chris Christie among Democrats has declined from 81%-9% to 74%-15%.  That suggests something that must be even more disturbing to the Corzine campaign regarding their “positive” strategy.

The “positive” strategy component of the Corzine campaign was based almost solely on the appeal of President Barack Obama to Democrats, particularly minority and urban voters.  It appears from today’s Quinnipiac Poll that the Obama appeal has taken Corzine as far as it will go among Democrats and indeed may create a backlash against Corzine among non-Democrat voters who have turned against the President primarily due to his health care proposals and a nightmarish federal deficit and debt outlook.

While I have often felt that the Christie political “brain trust” members have overrated the Obama appeal to non-Democrats, I do believe that they have been wise and prudent in avoiding attacking the President.  Such a negative onslaught might create a backlash against Christie in the African-American and Hispanic communities, resulting in a larger turnout for Corzine on Election Day from voters from these constituencies.

At the same time, however, I would not be surprised if movement conservative independent expenditure organizations campaign in New Jersey with television commercials blasting the President for his health care proposals and encouraging voters to “send a message” to Barack Obama on Election Day by voting against Jon Corzine.  These groups, of course, must have no communication with the Christie campaign or New Jersey Republican State Committee, and they will make there own judgments as to whether to involve themselves in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest.

I do not know of any organizations planning to do this, but movement conservatives are not oblivious to the negative outcry that greeted Democrat Representative Steve Rothman at his town meeting on Obamacare in Bergen County.  They also must be aware of the fact that newly elected Democrat Representative John Adler, one of the most politically astute Democrats I have known in my years of New Jersey politics, has said that the current Democratic House of Representatives health care proposal “isn’t good for America”.  The New Jersey 2009 gubernatorial race may well be a testing ground for movement conservative anti-Obama efforts presently planned for the 2010 Congressional races.

Let me emphasize that I am not saying that this campaign is over and that Chris and Mary Pat Christie can begin loading up the trucks for a move in January to Drumthwacket.  I would feel more certain of a Christie victory, as I have said in previous columns, if he would propound a property tax platform.  At the same time, however, it appears that the Corzine positive “Obama” strategy and negative Bush/Brown strategy are both dead in the water as we approach the traditional Labor Day campaign kickoff.

In order to win reelection, the Corzine campaign will have to develop entirely new positive and negative strategies.  I am not saying that this is totally impossible, but it may be necessary for the Corzine political “brain trust” to literally reinvent the Governor in order to increase his positive numbers.  This task will fall to Jamie Fox, former Chief of Staff to both Jim McGreevey and Bob Torricelli.

Jamie is one of the most competent professionals I have met during my decades of involvement in New Jersey politics and government, but even he cannot make the Red Sea part.  His challenge is like that of Johnny Unitas, the greatest quarterback of his era, when he came onto the Orange Bowl gridiron in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl III, January 12, 1969, to replace Earl Morrall with his Baltimore Colts down 16-0 to the nineteen point underdog New York Jets, led by Broadway Joe Namath.  Unitas led the Colts to one touchdown, but that was it – the Jets scored the greatest upset in the history of pro football with a 16-7 victory.

It was too late for Johnny Unitas to work a miracle in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl III.  It may indeed be too late for Jamie Fox to work a miracle in Governor’s Race 2009.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations.