Chris Christie starts off the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial general election campaign as the favorite against unpopular incumbent Jon Corzine.  The key to a Christie victory will be for him to 1) obtain a huge turnout from the Republican base by sticking to the conservative positions taken by him in the primary;  and 2) appeal to independents on the issue of New Jersey’s economy, where Corzine has a record of  abject failure predating the onset of the current recession.

Christie has plenty of smart and savvy political advisors in his campaign who brought him to victory in last night’s primary.  Furthermore, with Bill Stepien, he has a major advantage over Corzine in the campaign manager position – I saw the interview with Maggie Moran on the NJN news last night, and she sounded as if she were competing for the Nobel Prize for clichés.  Nevertheless, there are critical strategic and operational decisions that Christie himself will have to make.  If he makes the right decisions in the following areas, his path to victory is clear.

Stay warm with Steve Lonegan

This is the most important priority in order for Christie to achieve his goals with the Republican base.  Regardless of one’s views of Steve Lonegan politically and personally, he performed far better in last night’s vote than the Trenton GOP conventional wisdom pundits predicted six months ago.  Considering where he started in this race, one must respect both Lonegan and his followers for achieving a vote total of 42 percent.  Steve Lonegan and his followers will be a force to reckon with in New Jersey politics for the foreseeable future.  No Republican can win statewide without their support.

The most important thing to keep in mind about Lonegan’s vote result last night is the fact that he carried Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon counties.  These three counties, together with Morris and Somerset, comprise the New Jersey Northwest Quadrant, the most critical component of the New Jersey Republican base.  No Republican can win a statewide election in New Jersey without achieving a margin of at least 100,000 votes in the Northwest Quadrant.  Lonegan’s full and active support is absolutely necessary for Christie to achieve the 100,000 vote margin in this area.

The good news last night was the fact that Christie and Lonegan were so gracious to each other, in spite of the often rancorous tone of the primary.  It is essential for Chris Christie that they stay united.

No need for Christie to retreat from his position on abortion

The recent Gallup Poll stated that most Americans identify themselves as pro-life rather than pro-choice.  There are many theories as to why this is the case, but I think the actually explanation is the same one that caused Christie to change his position from pro-choice to pro-life: he heard his daughter’s heartbeat when she was in her mother’s womb.  With improvements in ultrasound and other pre-natal technologies, Americans are becoming more sensitized to the fact that a fetus is a life, rather than a mass of tissue.

In this vein, the Democrats and liberal Republicans made a fundamental political blunder over the years.  They began by arguing that while abortion may be immoral, it was necessary that it be a choice available to women in order to avoid the horrors of unsafe, back-alley abortions.  Bill Clinton succinctly stated this position as follows: abortion should be safe, legal, and rare.  As a pro-life advocate, I disagreed with this argument, but I understood why voters found it compelling.  During the last decade, however, Democrats and liberal Republicans have elevated abortion from being a regrettable choice to a political sacrament.

It is clear from the recent Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind poll that the Republican base is overwhelmingly pro-life --by a margin of 2 to 1.  The fear, however, is that Christie’s pro-life position will hurt him with independents.

I don’t think it will, because New Jersey independent voters know a truth that John Corzine and Maggie Moran would like them to forget: a pro-life Governor, even with a Republican legislature, cannot outlaw abortion.  This issue is determined by federal statutes and court rulings.  The only way New Jersey can play a role in outlawing abortion is if it joins with 37 other states and passes a constitutional amendment making abortion illegal.  The chances of that are minimal.

For the independent New Jersey voter in 2009, the overwhelming issue is the economy.  Corzine and Moran want to distract the independent voter from Corzine’s record of abysmal economic failure by using Chris’s anti-abortion position as a red herring issue.  They will fail in this effort, as long as 1) Christie does not waffle on the issue like Jim Courter did in 1989; and 2) when asked about the abortion issue, Chris simply states his pro-life view and then changes the subject to the economy, something Bret Schundler failed to do in 2001.

Christie can’t shed his George W. Bush association, so he should get its benefits

Like Chris, I served in the George W. Bush administration, and I am most proud of that.  I believe that history will be very kind to Bush, but I also realize that the former President’s unpopularity will persist for some time.

In Chris’s case, however, he was very involved with the most successful and popular area of the Bush administration, homeland security.  This is also the Achilles’ heel of the Obama administration.  It is the reason why Dick Cheney’s popularity has climbed by 10 points in a recent national survey.  Television talk show host John McLauglin has predicted that Cheney’s popularity will exceed 60 percent by the end of 2009.  I am not sure that this will be the case, but it would be the height of irony if in October, 2009, New Jersey Republicans were suggesting that a resurgent Cheney come into the state to campaign for Republican candidates.

In Chris’s case, he was not at all involved with Bush administration decisions on the economy or Iraq.  He was a key player in Bush administration decisions on homeland security.  Accordingly, in spite of the Corzine/Moran efforts to use the word “Bushwhack” as a McCarthyism of the Left smear against Christie, his association with Bush homeland security efforts could prove to be a significant political advantage for him, especially as contrasted with the highly troublesome new Obama administration homeland security policies and appointees.

The Christie campaign should immediately hire a top-flight press secretary

The best press secretary I ever saw in New Jersey politics was my good friend Carl Golden.  He is now retired, so I can’t recommend that the campaign hire him.  It is essential that the campaign immediately hire the most competent press secretary available for two reasons.  First, Chris often had to spend significant time in the primary answering trivial questions over and over again that could have been handled by a press secretary.  Second, it is absolutely essential that Chris and his Lieutenant Governor nominee are totally consistent on message.  That is the type of discipline that a competent press secretary brings to a campaign.

Corzine has given Christie the opportunity to be the ultimate traditional values candidate

In his campaign kick-off speech last night, Corzine unequivocally supported gay marriage.  With his pro-life and anti-gay marriage stance, together with his strong marriage to Mary Pat and his four beautiful children, Christie is now the undisputed candidate of traditional values.  This makes him a most appealing candidate to the New Jersey “Reagan Democrats”, who have not supported Republican statewide candidates in over a decade.

Finally, Christie should pray that Joe Biden campaigns often in New Jersey for Corzine

The Vice-President has established himself as a national buffoon with gaffes that far exceed in shock value and foolishness any of those of former Vice President Dan Quayle.  I wonder how Biden ever passed any high school standardized tests in history in view of his statement that FDR was the President at the time of the 1929 stock market crash and that he actually went on television afterwards.  

Christie brings to the campaign a solid record as U.S. attorney and the political sagacity to take advantage of Corzine’s failures.  He will have to make the right critical choices on the topics discussed above, but the opportunities are definitely there for him in this campaign – and I am confident that Corzine will create more opportunities for him as the campaign develops.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and seven federally recognized Indian nations.