Alan Steinberg's blog

As U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, Chris Christie stepped on the toes of some extremely powerful people in his efforts to eliminate corruption in the Garden State.  Accordingly, he had to expect that friends of individuals he sent to jail would seek revenge by resorting to character assassination if he ran for Governor.  Indeed, the long knives of the friends of those he sent to jail are now out there against Chris Christie.  Their ranks have been joined by others who, while not friends of those convicted by Christie, have their own grievances against him, often motivated by jealousy.

Amidst the din of partisan charges and counter-charges in the state budget legislative hearings, the positive message strategy of Jon Corzine's reelection campaign can now be discerned.  Indeed, this two- pronged strategy has a fair chance of working, despite the Governor's current low poll numbers.  In brief, this is the two part message:

1.  I am holding the line on spending against the unreasonable demands of the Communications Workers of America (CWA) state workers union locals;

2.  In spite of the difficult financial circumstances attendant during this economic recession, I am making sure that the educational needs of our children are fully funded.

In order for a Republican gubernatorial challenger to win in New Jersey, he or she must have a bold idea as the centrepiece of the campaign.  For Tom Kean in 1981, it was his "Kemp-Roth for New Jersey" corporate tax cut proposal.  For Christie Whitman in 1993, it was her 30 percent income tax cut plan.

In the gubernatorial campaign of 2005, Jon Corzine's Wall Street background was, in figurative terms, an eagle for him, enabling him to fly above the crowd of potential rivals for the governorship.  Four years later, in 2009, his Wall Street background has been transformed by negative events from an eagle into an albatross, which, together with other factors, are literally sinking his reelection campaign.

One of the most enduring legacies of the 2000 Bush-Gore Presidential race has been the use of the colors "blue" and “red” to identify Democratic and Republican states, respectively.  This addition to the political idiom of America resulted from the colors on the 2000 NBC Election Night map used to identify states carried by each Presidential candidate. 

The AIG debacle is an ultimate example of bipartisan disgrace and misgovernment.  The scandal will no doubt result in a massive disillusionment in the electorate with both Democrat and Republican Presidents, past and present, and members of Congress.  Conditions are now ripe for the emergence of a 21st century version of a "populist demagogue" - and the perfect example and prototype of such an individual can be found in the life and career of Huey Long.

I first met Scott Garrett when I began my service as Senior Policy Advisor on the Assembly Republican Staff in June, 1992 while he was serving in his second term as an Assemblyman.  Over the past 17 years, both in his capacity as an Assemblyman and as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, I have had the good fortune to work with Scott on numerous issues, and my respect for his intellect, character, ethics, integrity, and courage has grown.

Last Wednesday, March 4 was a bad day for the reelection campaign of Jon Corzine. The Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) poll showed his approval numbers upside down at 40%-46%, while he trails the presumptive Republican nominee, Chris Christie by 9 points, 41%-32%.  Even worse news came two days later on Friday, March 6 when the FDU poll showed that the current popularity of President Barack Obama was unlikely to result in any significant improvement whatsoever in the Governor's reelection support.

What is most discouraging for Corzine, however, is the trend.  His approval rating has suffered a complete reversal from his favorable January, 2009 rating of 46% to 40%.  As former Governor Tom Kean has often said, the significance of polls is not so much in the head to head numbers, but in the trend.  The trend for Corzine is all negative, and he is about to present a state budget that cannot help but have a toxic effect on his campaign.  Furthermore, unlike Jim Florio, whose poll numbers were improving in early 1993, Corzine's are going in the wrong direction.  It therefore appears that positive coattails from Obama may be absolutely necessary for the Governor to stage a comeback.

In the absence of such coattails, Corzine must achieve one of three objectives to win reelection.  His first path to a comeback is to achieve some major governmental success between now and Election Day.  This appears highly unlikely, given his budgetary constraints.  His firm stance against state employees unions on the issue of furloughs is not a gamebreaking accomplishment that can reverse electoral trends.

The second possibility is for Corzine to have some major "wedge" issue, such as Brendan Byrne's successful contrasting of his income tax enactment with Ray Bateman's proposed "Bateman-Simon" tax code restructuring in 1977, or Jim Florio's effective use of the assault weapons ban in his near-miss campaign for reelection in 1993.  Unfortunately, no such issue option appears available for Jon Corzine, and Chris Christie is not likely to give him one.

This year's gubernatorial election promises to be the most interesting and competitive governor’s race since the Whitman - McGreevey contest of 1997.  For me, however, I will miss the company of two dear friends with whom I was most fortunate to share the highs and lows of political campaigns during my years of statewide involvement:  Steve Salmore and Frank Holman, both of whom passed away during the year of the last gubernatorial election, 2005.

Jim Florio served as Governor of New Jersey from 1990 to 1994, and was a Congressman from 1974 to 1990.

During the 1960s, the late conservative polemicist, William F. Buckley once referred to his relationship with Harvard liberal economist John Kenneth Galbraith as one of his significant "transideological relationships". In the course of my tenure as Regional Administrator of Region 2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during the Bush administration from September, 2005 until January 20, 2009, I was fortunate to develop a similar transideological and transparty friendship with former New Jersey Governor Jim Florio. It was certainly never as intimate as the Buckley - Galbraith relationship, but a warm friendship nevertheless, one I am proud to have.

This relationship developed from an initial meeting in my office at Region 2 EPA in the summer of 2006. Throughout my tenure, I felt that it was essential for me to reach out to both leading Republican and Democrat players on environmental issues, together with stakeholders in the nongovernmental environmental organizations, business associations, and academic community as well. I viewed my meeting with Jim Florio as an opportunity to receive input on regional matters from the leading political player on environmental issues in the Region during the last three decades.

The meeting was scheduled for one hour, but it lasted, at my request, for nearly two hours. Talking with Florio was like having a conversation with an environmental and energy encyclopedia. I know of nobody on the current American political scene who has the breadth and depth of Jim Florio on these two clusters of issues.