Alan Steinberg's blog

During the past week, I watched on NJN coverage of several campaign events trumpeting Governor Jon Corzine’s successes in education governance.  The message of each event was as follows:  Although Jon Corzine had to make drastic cuts in the state budget during a time of diminished revenues, he actually increased education funding, because he cares about our children.  

Will the Governor’s accomplishments in education become the new positive message of the Corzine reelection campaign?  It seems plausible to me.  Corzine is in dire need of a positive campaign message.  Without one, his negative attacks on Chris Christie will continue to backfire and cause his own negative approval ratings to increase at a more rapid rate than those of his Republican challenger.

I like Chris Daggett.  Of all my predecessors in my former position as Regional Administrator of Region 2, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), I feel he was the best.  I actually think he has the leadership and managerial skills to be a good governor, although I think Chris Christie surpasses him in this regard.

I am at a loss, however, to understand the rationale for his candidacy.  In order for an independent or third-party candidate to even remotely impact an election result, he or she must embrace a populist issue and use it as a basis for a protest vote against the two major party candidates.  Daggett has no such populist message.

Ed Rollins, who managed Ronald Reagan’s landslide reelection victory in 1984 and Christie Whitman’s come-from-behind gubernatorial victory in 1993 is the best Republican strategist I have ever met.  With regard to negative campaigning, Rollins has often said the following: “When a candidate launches a negative campaign, he will in virtually every case see his own negative poll numbers increase.  The key is to make sure that the negative attack results in his opponent’s negative numbers increasing more than his own.”

It is clear from today’s Quinnipiac Poll results that the Corzine political “brain trust” forgot the Rollins words of wisdom when they launched the negative campaign against Chris Christie involving George W. Bush and Michele Brown.  Although I support Chris Christie, I have not hesitated to criticize in my PolitickerNJ.com column the Christie political “brain trust” for what I regard to be strategic flaws. Today, however, it is my turn to criticize the Corzine political “brain trust” for a negative strategy that I regard as “brain dead.”

As shown by today’s Quinnipiac Poll results, the electorate has resoundingly judged this Bush/Brown strategy to be both unfair and irrelevant in a New Jersey beset with a worsening economy, skyrocketing taxes, a deteriorating environment, and the exodus of numerous wealthy New Jerseyans who have constituted one of the Garden State’s major sources of revenue.  Indeed, if today’s Quinnipiac numbers hold through November 3, Jon Corzine may be the next wealthy taxpayer to depart New Jersey for another state due to the prohibitively high income tax rates he created.

I received a number of responses to my PolitickerNJ.com column last week.  In that column, I asserted that in order to win the gubernatorial election, Chris Christie must offer a property tax reduction platform.  One responder contended that if Christie followed my advice, he would lose the election in similar fashion to GOP gubernatorial candidate Ray Bateman in 1977.

In that campaign, Bateman propounded the Bateman-Simon plan to eliminate the New Jersey income tax, which had been enacted by the legislature and signed by Governor Brendan Byrne during 1976.  The 1977 Bateman-Simon proposal, however, does not in any way resemble the two-principle property tax platform I advocated last week.  

My contention is that if Chris Christie advocates a credible and coherent property tax platform, he will be elected as Governor on November 3, in similar fashion to Christie Whitman’s 1993 triumph over the then-incumbent Governor Jim Florio.  If the current GOP Gubernatorial nominee fails to do so, he may lose, in almost the exact same manner that 1948 GOP Presidential nominee Tom Dewey lost his lead and ultimately the election to the then incumbent, President Harry S. Truman.

Two weeks ago, on Corruption Thursday, I wrote a PolitickerNJ.com column entitled “Corzine is Not Corrupt – But The Corruption Scandal Dooms His Campaign.”  I based my conclusion upon my belief that Governor Jon Corzine had lost the only strategy that could reelect him – an onslaught of television commercials attacking the ethics of his Republican opponent and former U.S.Attorney Chris Christie.  I stated in the article that “the Corzine negative strategy has been rendered totally ineffectual.  The public is aware that Chris Christie shepherded this investigation during his tenure, and this gives him a shield of invulnerability on ethics issues.”

After reading the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released on Tuesday, I fear that I may have been mistaken.  True, Christie has widened his lead among likely voters from 8% to 14%, although among registered voters his lead has narrowed from six to four points.  At this point in the campaign, however, it is more important to look at the “internal” trends rather than the “horse race”.  There are three such internal trends that concern me as a Republican supporter of Christie – two positive trends for Corzine and one negative trend for Christie. 

Since Corruption Thursday, I continue to hear people say that it is impossible to govern effectively in Hudson County without playing the corruption game.  I quickly respond to such nonsense by citing the ultimate counter-example, Bret Schundler, who governed as mayor of Jersey City most effectively and without a hint of scandal from 1992 until 2001.  He did so also as a Republican, in a city and county where Republicans are virtually an extinct species.

When I think of Bret, I also think of the man I regard as his Democrat counterpart in integrity and excellence in urban government, Mayor Cory Booker of Newark.  It is remarkable how much these two outstanding men have in common, aside from being successful urban reform mayors.

On the day we in New Jersey will always remember as Corruption Thursday, my thoughts were focussed in three areas:

As a long time participant and observer of New Jersey politics, I thought of the impact the arrests and continuing scandal would have on the gubernatorial campaign.  I compiled these thoughts in my PolitickerNJ.com article, “Corzine is Not Corrupt – But The Corruption Scandal Dooms His Campaign.”

As an Orthodox Jew, I felt shame regarding the alleged crimes of the arrested rabbis and their accomplices.  I wanted to publicly express the need for Orthodox Jews to repudiate this kind of evil behavior, yet also emphasize the fact that the great majority of Orthodox Jews do not behave in this fashion.  I was fortunate to have the opportunity to do so that night as a guest on the News 12 New Jersey show “Capitol Hot Seat”, hosted by Laura Jones.

Finally, as one who worked a decade in New Jersey state government, I was profoundly shocked and troubled by the news that a raid by federal agents had been conducted at the home and offices of former New Jersey Assembly Speaker and Community Affairs Commissioner Joe Doria. 

There is no evidence that Governor Jon Corzine personally is connected in any way to the alleged criminal deeds that form the basis of the arrests of politicians, political operatives, and rabbis announced today by the New Jersey U.S. Attorney’s office.  His Community Affairs Commissioner Joe Doria, who resigned this morning at Corzine’s request, is being investigated, although we do not yet know what the outcome of the investigation will be.  If Doria is indicted, this would implicate the Corzine administration, although not Corzine himself.

Regardless of whether or not Doria is indicted, however, Corzine has lost the only strategy that could reelect him – an onslaught of television commercials attacking the ethics of his Republican opponent and former U.S.Attorney Chris Christie.  The Corzine reelection campaign is now all but doomed.

While I continue to support Chris Christie for Governor, I have not been hesitant to criticize him or his campaign in my columns on PolitickerNJ.com.  I am, however, seeking no benefit from Chris Christie.  After having served a most gratifying two decades in government, capped off by my tenure as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA, I have absolutely no intention or desire to serve further in any administration, federal or state.   

Furthermore, I am sure that after reading some of my recent columns, Chris Christie would not want me to serve in his administration.  So unlike the political players who surround Chris these days, many of whom are self-interested sycophants, I am in the wonderful position of being able to speak truth to power.  And, the truth is, Christie’s selection of Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno as his running mate is a political masterstroke.

The key findings to be inferred from the Quinnipiac Poll released today are as follows:

1.  The Corzine negative strategy of attempting to link Christie with currently unpopular former President George W. Bush has been a dismal failure.

2.  President Obama’s popularity in New Jersey is declining rapidly, and he can help Governor Corzine only with his Democratic base.

3.  Christie’s major asset is his outstanding continued showing among Republicans, but he risks losing this base if he alienates Lonegan Republican primary election voters.

4.  Chris Daggett is the major wild card in this race.  A strong showing by Daggett may be the only way Corzine can be reelected.