Alan Steinberg's blog

With a possible pending Philadelphia Phillies-New York Yankees “New Jersey Turnpike World Series”, baseball analogies regarding the gubernatorial race abound in the Garden State.  In baseball lingo, within the past 24 hours, the Christie campaign has had two hits, two errors, and a late inning lucky break.

Kim Guadagno is a new Republican superstar.  She represents the best hope that Chris Christie has of regaining the support of Independent women that he has lost over the past month.

Every morning, as I watch local New York news shows between 6:00 am and 7:00 am, I see a Corzine commercial that basically portrays Chris Christie as a misogynist – a person who hates women.  The commercial is very unfair, but that is the nature of modern television political campaign advertising.

The Christie campaign could very easily counter this portrayal by having a television commercial in which Guadagno talks directly into the camera and says, “I’m Kim Guadagno, Chris Christie’s running mate for Lieutenant Governor.  As a wife, mother, lawyer, and public official, I can tell you that more than almost anybody I’ve met in politics, Chris Christie understands the needs of women meeting the twin challenges of career and family.”

I thought that Chris Christie’s performance at the William Paterson University televised debate on Friday was his best yet in Gubernatorial Campaign 2009, including the primary as well.

I treasure my friendship with Carl Golden.  Not only are he and his wife, Linda wonderful people; he was without question the finest Governor’s press secretary in New Jersey history.  I am most proud to say that throughout my years of public service, he was my mentor in terms of media and press relations.  The Christie campaign, including the candidate himself, sorely needed the tutelage of somebody comparable to Carl Golden throughout this past year.

Carl is now retired, and I talk to him almost every day.  As shown by his columns on New Jersey Newsroom and the Star-Ledger website, he has lost none of his unsurpassed perception, sharpness, and political sagacity.

While the trends in the polls continue to be negative for the Christie for Governor campaign, the good news for the Republican Party comes out of Virginia.  Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor, is in the process of locking up his victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds.

Unlike the Christie campaign, the McDonnell campaign has a clear and convincing message and winning strategy, and a key player in its formulation and its implementation is New Jersey native and McDonnell campaign chair Ed Gillespie.

I just returned to my home in West Orange from the Lieutenant Governor debate at Monmouth University.  Kim Guadagno was a clear winner.

Kim projected competence, knowledge of issues, and even more importantly, empathy.  She has genuine charisma and star quality.  Regardless of whether Chris Christie wins or loses in November, she will someday be a Republican candidate for Governor.

Christie Whitman was the New Jersey Republican woman star from the aristocracy.  Kim Guadagno is the new Republican woman star from the meritocracy.

If he does, he may still win after all.  If not, my prediction last night of a three-to-five point Corzine victory remains operative.

The foundation for such a message emerged from Christie’s appearance before the Star-Ledger editorial board on Monday, described in Paul Mulshine’s blog column yesterday afternoon.    The following is the link to the column and an accompanying video of Christie at the editorial board:

http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2009/10/christie_on_property_taxes....

Between now and Election Day, I plan to post in this space each weekday a short daily blog as to how I assess the election.

I now believe that Jon Corzine will defeat Chris Christie by a margin of between three to five points.

Let me put it this way.  Thirty-two years ago, Ray Bateman lost to Brendan Byrne because of his highly flawed plan to eliminate the state income tax.  This year, Chris Christie is likely to lose because he has NO plan regarding local property taxes. 

A principal reason for the narrowing of the gap between Chris Christie and Jon Corzine in both the Quinnipiac and Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey polls is the increase in Chris Daggett’s share of likely voters.  As shown by yesterday’s Quinnipiac Poll and today’s Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll, the increase in the Daggett vote has been overwhelmingly at the expense of Chris Christie.

The potential of Daggett to attain a vote of well over 10% increased dramatically with his announcement of a property tax reduction plan on Tuesday.  He already has attained 12% of the vote in the Quinnipiac Poll and 8% in the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll, and he now has the status of being the only candidate with a definitive plan on property tax, the issue of most concern to New Jersey voters.

If Daggett receives more than 15% of the vote, Christie is a sure loser – Corzine could then be reelected with only 43% of the vote.  If in tonight’s debate Christie can demonstrate that the Daggett plan is totally lacking in credibility, however, then the appeal of the Daggett candidacy will be largely diminished.   The potential is there for Chris Christie to do just that and reduce the impact of the Daggett candidacy, the main threat to his election as Governor.

Although yesterday’s Monmouth University/Gannett Poll showed Chris Christie’s lead over Jon Corzine among likely voters being reduced from fourteen to eight percentage points, there was good news in the poll for the Republican challenger as well.  In spite of an onslaught from Jon Corzine of negative ad hominem television commercials, Christie’s negative personal approval ratings did not increase over the past month.  Furthermore, the reduction in his lead among likely voters was no surprise to the Christie campaign – it was simply the result of the expected return to the Corzine column of Democrat base voters.

There was, however, one very ominous sign in the poll for the Christie campaign.  While Christie leads Corzine among likely voters,  Corzine actually now leads Christie among registered voters by one percent.  This is a significant change from the six point lead the Republican challenger enjoyed among registered voters in July and the four point lead he held in August.

It will be the central goal of the Corzine campaign, through Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts, to get to the polls on Election Day the maximum number of these lukewarm Corzine supporters who presently fall under the classification of “registered but not likely” voters.  It is indeed in the area of GOTV that the Corzine campaign has a major advantage over the Christie campaign, due to the continued state Democratic Party organizational and financial advantages.