There’s been a lot of speculation about State Sen. John Adler running for Congress, so his announcement today that he was filing a campaign committee didn’t startle his opponent.
“It’s early, but there have been signs he was going to run. We are not surprised,” said a statement Rep. Jim Saxton, who declined to offer any other comment.
Adler’s decision to run for Congress means that Democrats are launching their first serious challenge to U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton since Susan Bass Levin ran against him in 2000, spending over $1 million but losing by a margin of 57-42 percent. In 2006, a bad year from the GOP nationally and in New Jersey, Saxton beat the low-budget campaign of newcomer Richard Sexton by an even wider margin.
Adler, who has considerable clout as the Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman, is likely to be a credible, hard working candidate with a lot of money behind him But he faces a tough battle against the entrenched twelve-term incumbent, said David Rebovich, Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics.
“It’s an uphill battle for Adler, since Saxton is really a very interesting, shrewd political figure much like Chris Smith is,” said Rebovich. “He has succeeded in appealing to key constituent groups in that district: veterans, senior citizens, even environmentalists.”
"Not since Watergate have the Republicans been this low in national public opinion polls -- and in New Jersey, Republicans are held in even lower esteem than the national average," said Steve Ayscue, a Democratic strategist. "If things stay the course, Democrats can expect to make gains in the U.S. House by as many as 20 seats or more next year. It certainly helps that the national Democrats have been busy recruiting top-notch talent to run for Senate and House seats -- candidates who can raise substantial money independent of the leadership."
Ayscue continued: "I've never seen this much attention from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on New Jersey races, including the 3rd District -- perhaps because this district is strikingly similar, demographically, to Congressman Patrick Murphy's 'swing' district in suburban Pennsylvania. The last time Senator Adler ran for this seat it was 1990 and a very difficult political environment for Democrats. This time around I expect Senator Adler to run a highly effective campaign to prove the need for change, but given Saxton's lock-step support of the failed Bush-Rove agenda he will make the case for Adler even easier."
The Democrats’ strategy so far has been to tie Saxton to the Bush administration as often as possible. Today, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee issued a statement criticizing Saxton for not opposing President Bush’s threatened veto of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.
Democrats also believe that the South Jersey is ever so gradually turning blue, and point to local gains in towns like Evesham as evidence. Democrats won a race for Burlington County Surrogate last year, and are mounting a competitive campaign in the normally Republican 8th legislative district this year. And in Toms River, the largest municipality in the district, Richard Strada, who won 33% against Saxton in 2002, stands a good chance at being elected Mayor.
Saxton joins Reps. Mike Ferguson and Frank LoBiondo as the Democrats’ top three congressional targets in New Jersey. Ferguson won by just one percent last year.
“We believe that Jim Saxton is very vulnerable,” said DCCC spokeswoman Carrie James. “He no longer represents the families in his district that he’s out of touch with the families in his district and is continuing down the same old stay the course road in Iraq with President Bush.”
But national Republicans said that the any campaign against Saxton was merely “smoke and mirrors.” Democrats, wary of all the seats they gained last year in traditionally Republican districts, are trying to create the impression of competitive races where they don’t really exist.
“You look at the playing field and they have a lot of defense to play, so of course they throw darts at a map and call them targets when they aren’t in fact,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Julie Shutley. “Saxton has a record of delivering in the district and has been a good congressman.”
Adler, a 48-year-old Harvard Law School graduate, served as a Cherry Hill Councilman before challenging Saxton in 1990. In 1991, perhaps one of the strongest Republican years in modern state political history, Adler ousted four-term State Sen. Lee Laskin.
The 63-year-old Saxton, who beat Democratic Assemblyman John Sweeney in 1975 and went to the State Senate six years later, was elected to Congress in 1984 following the death of Edwin Forsythe. The Republican leadership passed him over for Chairman of the House Resources Committee in 2005; he is now in line to become the senior Republican on the House Armed Services Committee if he is re-elected next year.
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Adler
Adler is a piece of GEORGE NORCROSS toe nail with dirt..........
If Mad Max's posts are the equivalent of music (and other matter
Then they are a mix of Kid Rock with Spinal Tap on top. High quality political analysis, MM!
Any Republican who thinks that Saxton, who would barely show his face on the campaign trail last time around, can take this seat for granted is sorely mistaken. The national environment of anti-Republican sentiment is even having an effect on local and state races in N.J. in 2007, as Iraq is one of the top topics heard by state candidates on the campaign trail.
Adler will have funds to support his race, he'll have the backing of a large Democratic infrastructure across South Jersey (if Asselta and McCullough lose in November, there is no Republican infrastructure left, for all intents and purposes), and he'll have the seasoning that he didn't have when he ran for this seat the first time around.
Has Saxton Lost His Mind???
Only a complete political whore could take the side of the insurance lobby/industry over the health care of our children. These are OUR CHILDREN for God's sake!!!
If Saxton votes against SCHIP and/or to sustain President Bush’s "threatened veto of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program" he is a complete ass, at best.
Putting aside every other issue/question; that one vote alone should/could be sufficient grounds to disqualify any Republican OR Democrat from being elected to Congress!!!
We have a President who has sold what's left of his soul to big money (oil/insurance etc etc etc) "interests" and cloaks it all in superficial BS "patriotism"......all while he tries to terrorize us all with the threat of death if we don't all swallow his "party line".
Most of the people of NJ finally see through this crap, the jig is up; there are no "safe" Republican CD's any more...not if incumbents insist of "going down with the ship" of Bush policies like opposing SCHIP.
If the NJ Republican congressional delegation chooses to remain slavishly/stupidly "loyal" to Cheney/Bush they will all go down in flames and will deserve their fate.
Let's put it this way: if NJ Republican pols choose to "stay the course" with this maleficent administration; they are beyond redemption!
Does this mean that Democrats are perfect? Hell no! But given a choice between having my pocket picked or being raped/murdered; I'll chose the former.
From Frederick Douglass
What?
He is a "Complete ass" for opposing treating poor people who earn 80,000 a year the same as seniors who would have their benefits cut? That is how the bill is paid for. Let's get this straight - the bill CUTS funding for seniors in Medicare so we can allow families earning over 80,000 to pay for health care? The law was supposed to benefit low income families. 80,000 a year is low income? That is crap? That is helping the insurance companies? By trhe way - they are the BIGGEST employer in the State. By why worry about employing people - having it your way, everyone will be on government subsidies soon enough.
nowhere to go
Adler has nowhere else to go so making a run at Saxton is his best option. T
hat being said, he will be fighting in territory that doesn't remotely resemble the lollypop district he runs in now. When Saxton was challenged by another well-funded Norcross acolyte in a great Democrat year, he rolled up a substantial margin. Is Adler a better candidate than Bass-Levin? Yes, but not that much better.
Adler will make Saxton work for the win. Barring a total GOP collapse (i.e., the nominee losing worse than Bush did in 2000) and Saxton throwing in the tower, this is still a double digit win for the incumbent.
Ocean Seniors
Ocean County senior citizens control this district by turning out in percentages north of 90% and voting solidly GOP. Good luck breaking this hold with 40-50% turnout in the Camden and Burlington river towns. Adler has a chance of carrying one town in Ocean - South Toms River, population 2,000.
Saxton brings alot of
Saxton brings alot of Federal money home to Lockheed Martin and Fort Dix.
If South Jersey votes for a Democrat, we would lose that money over night. Lockheed Martin would lay off 6,000 people and Fort Dix will close. Burlington County will become as poor as Camden County.
Adler would be just like Rob Andrews. A waste of a Congressional seat.
re: "waste of congessional seat"
Though the previous poster's comments about a "waste of a congressional seat" were mistakenly allotted to our superb congressman Rob Andrews, they were surely meant for Jim Saxton, who consistently votes against state interests on stem cells (aligning himself with the fringe right in this regard), receives a 100% rating from Pat Robertson's Christian Coalition, and votes against veteran's receiving the same amount of time away from deployment as they are in combat.
To win this seat, Adler must connect Saxton to the multiple failures, domestic and foreign, of the Bush administration, and this shouldn't be hard since Saxton has bought into the neocon fantasy of an endless war in Iraq; he has never even questioned Bush on his failed strategies there and continues to live under the illusion that we are fighting al Queda in Iraq rather than policing a civil war.
I cannot think of a more qualified or intelligent individual than John Adler finally to represent the interests and needs of South Jersey voters.
Adler Can Win This But...........
The race can be won by Adler. I think the Camden County Democratic Organization now knows that they absolutely must have a GOTV operation that gets above 60% and above level. In turn Adler can concentrate on getting at least 30% of the Ocean County vote. Beyond GOTV in Camden and Burlington Counties all resources, time and energy should be focused on campaigning in Ocean County and getting at least 30% of the vote there. I also believe that most Camden Democratic Committee people will do more for Adler than they would ever do for Susan Bass Levin.
I could sooner see Dems
I could sooner see Dems behind the scenes pushing for an (either a Dem or Rep) Administration to appoint him as head of the EPA and try to compete for the vacated seat. The biggest chance Dems had to unseat him (along with Ferguson and LoBiondo) was in ’06. Now they’re going to have to wait for his retirement or resignation.
As for the Christian Coalition, that rating cited is not a lifetime rating. I have also seen several years in which the CC endorses particular issues which are considered more in the mainstream. For example, in the ’95 (right after the ‘94 “Republican Revolution”) a key initiative endorsed by the CC was the balanced budget constitutional amendment. While that was considered a GOP issue, many liberal/progressive Dems including Paul Simon, Steny Hoyer, Joe Kennedy, and Tom Harkin also voted for the measure. So for that year they would have received well above a 0% from that group. So my 2 questions concerning this are: (1) in what year(s) did he receive this rating and (2) what issue(s) was this rating based on?
huh?
So who is firing on US troops? It is not al Queda? Is that what I just read in a previous post? As for the redeployment issue, military leaders should judge that, not back benchers. And our military leaders have stated consistantly that the proposals before the House and Senate would be counter productive to the mission and would require using the national guard more than what is already taking place. During Vietnamn, there was not any time away from the task at hand. A soldier remained in theater until his tour was over. The other junk Martin throws out there is not even worth debating. Grasping at straws.
MartinOne misses point- as usual
Martin, camdenbeer actually had a decent point I hadnt thought about. Saxton does protect a lot of jobs in the district, and the area would be screwed if Adler won. He may be an intelligent lawyer, but that doesnt help the thousands of people who rely on Lockheed and Fort Dix to pay their bills. Does anyone know what the percentage breakdown was Adler v Saxton in 1990?
Oh Gosh
Isn't John Adler the same troll who the Democrats didn't want in their cabinet? What the heck has he done in the Senate to make NJ a better place? At least Rich Sexton was a fresh-faced moderate and not the uber-hack Adler is. I think Saxton wins easily.
Sorry OC You're Incorrect....
Read it and weep (and this is from your right wing Moonie newspaper ;-).
http://washingtontimes.com/article/20070919/NATION/109190053/1002
Further, 80K per annum and 4 kids and a mortgage and college costs and sickness/medical bills IS low income if you don't have medical coverage!!!
It's disgusting that you would deny medical care to children just so that insurance companies can make more money, shame on anyone who thinks like that. The appellation "complete ass" is charitable.
Saxton will vote for a continuation of SCHIP or he'll be out of a job.
Guaranteed.
From Frederick Douglass
It is a shame
It is a shame that Nicky must resort to name calling. Seems to be the MO of liberal Dems who have no real facts to back up their arguments. Let's get to some of the things you site. I am not The Amazing Kreskin, so I could not predict what would be in the final bill - which as I write this, the Democrats are not even sure what is in the final bill. The bill Saxton opposed including those things I mentioned (I will get back to your claim that someone making 80k a year is low income). And while you are correct in stating that news outlets reported that Medicare cuts were off the table for now, House Democrats are not happy about it, and Senator Baucus has stated that they will look into bringing up those cuts in a separate bill in the near future. Moreover, the bill increases taxes. Whether you agree or disagree with cigarettes and tobacco, the bill will target financially those lower income individuals you seek to help. Now, let's get to the statement that 80k a year is low income. Are you smoking something? Why not 100k? Or 150k? First off, an individual making 80k a year, more than likely is in a position to pay for their own health care through their employer. Those who earn 80k a year with a family of four and a mortgage payment, sending children to college would qualify for financial aid. Additionally, until the Democrats in Washington fail to extend the recently enacted tax cuts, that family of four will be eligible for a $4000 tax credit for the Federal Child Tax Credit. It will go down when the tax cuts expire. Furthermore, that family will be able to deduct the interest on their mortgage which could be up to 20k a year depending on the loan. Please do not try to explain that 80k is low income. That is a joke. As for those truly low income individuals in the State of New Jersey who do not have any health care, 300k who are eligible for assistance do not have health care because they have not taken the time or effort to fill out the paperwork. So we are supposed to increase the number of people on government assistance because 300k are too lazy to do be proactive? Getting back to the Adler campaign, please read the following Editorial from the Asbury Park Press. I chuckled too. http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070925/OPINION/709250317... PS - Nicky - I don't read the Washington Times.
OC What Do You and Saxton Have Against Children?
The fundamental force that is resisting the SCHIP bill is the Sickness Assurance Industry/Lobby.
BTW Thanks for acknowledging that I was "right" about something! LOL Now I'll return the favor.
You are also right in pointing out that Adler is no saint. I would love to have a Paul Wellstone like candidate running against every Republican in every district in the nation; but I'll take Adler over Saxton.
Let us not let the imperfections of Adler be a justification for settling for the Bushist cronyism of Congressman Saxton. I'd rather have my pocket picked than my brains blown out.
If I have to choose between smokers paying more for tobacco or uninsured kids getting health care; I'll proudly choose the latter every time.
Shame on you and Saxton for worshipping at the alter of kneejerk "conservatism". (Poor Barry Goldwater must be rolling over in his grave.)
As for the 80k worker with four kids and no health insurance.: First of all, you are right in that it is unlikely that there will be too many cases like that......but it's the nature of the beast with health care that a serious illness or a chronic condition can tap out just about anyone. Some families have to carry the Cross of a child with ongoing medical needs that could cost millions of dollars. That's more than insurance companies will pay even if there was coverage. Should that family be reduced to going on some kind of welfare to qualify for charity care?
Why Saxton and you would begrudge a child health care under any circumstances is beyond me.
Please read the folowing article from "The Congressional Quarterly" http://public.cq.com/docs/hb/hbnews110-000002585480.html
A few quotes from it follow:
Face reality oc. The insurance industry would rather see children go uncovered and die rather than lost them to a government program. Frankly, I believe they feel the same way about the rest of us.
That's why they collectively spend many hundreds of millions of dollars a year to get folks like you to think and believe as you do and to buy politicians with "contributions".
As for Medicare "cuts", I suspect you're talking about Democratic provisions that would allow Medicare Part D to actually NEGOTIATE with drug companies over the cost of drugs as opposed to simply paying the "full retail list price"....which amounts to a blank check.
I'm sure Barry Goldwater would have approved of cutting costs while maintaing the same level of benefit! Then again, Goldwater had some integrity.
OC when it comes to "health care" we're all being ripped off, screwed and tatooed with a big "SUCKER" logo on our asses.
The resistance to SCHIP is all about the people doing the screwing losing some market share to a government program; nothing more.
Everyone of us will get sick and everyone of us will die; there is no uncertainy about that. In the USA of 2107 there will no "Health Insurance Industry" as we know it. You can't sucker all the people all the time.
From Frederick Douglass
Same story
It is the same old story with you liberals. You can't win on substance so you make up attacks - "OC What Do You and Saxton Have Against Children?" why do you "begrudge" children? - that have no resemblance to reality. You obviously don't care that the bill in question would require millions of children to move from private health plans to government run plans. You don't care that taxes will have to go up to pay for those making 80k a year to get government entitlements (I bet John Kennedy would be rolling over in his grave - he was for lowering the tax burden on American families, not increasing it). So the answer to your question is I have nothing against children. What I have a problem with is 300,000 individuals eligible for government assisted health care who refuse to get off of their couches to sign up for it. What I have a problem with are liberals who fail to realize that less money in my pocket that I have earned takes away from my ability to care for my children. Now, addressing your belief that the Medicare cuts are related to the reimportation of drugs - uh, what the hell are you talking about? That has nothing to do with the conversation, or the bill discussed and quoted by you. Try reading what the cuts are. Furthermore, the AMA has come out and stated that they are upset that the bill would not address Medicare cuts to physicians and have asked the Senate to take another look at the proposal. But I am sure that you have something against doctors too and feel they get paid too much so it is ok they are getting their payments cut. Additionally, Senator Baucus has stated to pay for expanding the system, he is willing to bring up legislation which would cut the Medicare Advantage program. While the cuts have been dropped from this bill (although it is unclear whether they will stay out of the bill because House Democrats want it back in), it will be brought up again. Cutting Medicare? What do you and the Democrats have against seniors getting quality health care in their golden years, Nicky? I know it is easy for liberal to bash the insurance industry but the insurance industry typically gives more to the party in power in Congress. Democrats received more than Republicans prior to the Republican take over. I am sure the balance will tip back to the Democrats by next year. Nature of the beast. Will you call on your fellow Democrats to forgo accepting money from the insurance industry then? I doubt it. Your belief that socialism is the best thing for this country is absurd. It is obvious you don't have a family and know the realities or the bills incurred by having one (see - I can assume just like you can!) PS - take this quote from Frederick Douglass and stick it under you pillow: "I am a Republican, a black, dyed in the wool Republican, and I never intend to belong to any other party than the party of freedom and progress."
Nick - why don't you and the Democrats care about children?
Why do you hate children who are of immigrant status Nicky? The bill in question also makes children of legal immigrants wait 5 years to qualify for SCHIP. Why do you and the Democrats hate those children more than African American and Caucasian children?
Nicky is wrong again
Saxton voted against the tax raising, 80k salary a year entitlement program, anti-LEGAL immigrant, cuts to our local doctors bill. Guess you were wrong - guaranteed!
And just for the record Nick
I wanted to let you know what YOUR potential nominees for President are saying should define "rich" or upper class. According to Joe Biden, $97,000 a year is "rich" and should be taxed more than the rest of America. So between the two of you, middle class American is anyone earning between 80,001 and 96,999 a year. For the record, the SCHIP would allow anyone earning 83,000 a year to apply for federal benefits under the definition of "low income." What a joke.