Adler ain't going out without a fight. By voting against HCR he cast himself as independent of NJ and national Democrats (a good thing to be these days).

I don;t always agree with Russell but he has it spot on this time. It is desperate for an incumbent to show his poll this early and that poll only had him at 51% after spending millions of dollars the past 3 years? WOW!!! He will not go down without a fight, but you can see that his campaign sees him going down. As I have stated many times - a partisan poll is skewed and not worthy of the paper it is printed on. Wait until a non-partisan group starts polling - then Adler should worry.

The APP Press savaged the candidate (Runyan), accusing him of pandering to voters and possessing "Stunningly Naive" views on Social Security.

By moving to the right, John Adler is antagonizing those who got him elected in the first place, but won't take away votes from Tea Party parrot Jon Runyan. See http://bit.ly/ARdebate

What is Desperate is the Runyan campaign trying to make up excuses for a 17 point deficit. I don't disagree that internal polls are often skewed to one side, but 17 points is a lot of ground to make up.

And in a year where people are fed up with democrats and republicans, I could easily see “Tea Party” folks voting for a third party candidate and abandoning Runyan. It could certainly make up for the lower voter turnout Adler is likely to face.

"Tea Party independent Peter DeStafano, who gets 12% of the vote in the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll."

Runyan is dogmeat. DeStefano is already at 12% and he doesn't even have any money. Wait until he gets his campaign off the ground and conservatives and tea party patriots will flock to his banner.

Runyan ends up in third place come November.

You two have no clue what you are talking about. Have you ever run a successful campaign for a congressional seat?? Releasing a poll in July shows nothing but desperation. 17 points is nothing in a partisan poll. Meaning - it is worthless. Get a clue before you post. And third place? Oh right - and Murphy is going to win the primary. What a joke.

Sounds like your comments are the act of real desperation OC. No one is denying this isn't a competitive campaign. Take a step back at take a look. You are the one clearly in the defensive mode. Kind of sucks when you have to defend your candidate constantly huh?

"Murphy is going to win the primary. What a joke."

Murphy got 40% of the vote with no money and little name recognition. The joke is on the suckers who donate to another pathetic RINO loser like Runyan.

Desperate? This coming from a person who is supporting a guy who won't get 5% of the vote? Your guy couldn't win the GOP primary so he runs as a nobody on a line no one will see. Yeah - I am the desperate one. Keep trying to make your candidate and yourself relevant. You are obviously not that "politically active".

I don't think this poll was taken in the 3rd District. We tax payers in the 3rd aren't in favor of Adler. Yet, maybe they polled all those COAH people Adler housed here.

HE LOST!!!! GET OVER IT!!!!!!!!!! You are truly pathetic. Wow! I bet you still say - Lonegan almost became the nominee two cycles ago? You are a joke. Thanks for confirming it.

Adler has done a decent job of casting himself as a middle-of-the-road guy. No matter what your stripes, you have to admit this isn't the same guy politically who was a State Senator. If Runyan can churn that turnout again like last year in Ocean County, he wins. Anything short of that, he won't. It will be close race, no doubt.

Myers only won Ocean County by 15,000. In 2008, that was about 12 points. Adler won Cherry Hill 2-1 (11,000 margin), and Burlington by 12 points (18,000 votes) Much of that margin was from Willingboro. In 2006, (a bad GOP year but Saxton was still popular), Saxton won by 36,000 votes districtwide, (about 17%), and he only lost Cherry Hill by 2,000 (less than 10%).

Heres how I see the counties breaking down:

Camden: Adler 14,000, Runyan 9,500
Burlington: Adler 48,000 Runyan 47,000
Ocean: Adler 34,000 Runyan: 50,000

This means Runyan beats Adler 106,500 to 96,000. So Ocean must deliver a plurality of at least 10,000 to offset Camden and Burlington.

You don't think the people of Willingboro will come out in force for a wormy white dude who voted against healthcare?

And just a note about this poll: only 3% undecided? HAHAHAHA. If it were real, Greenberg would be fired.

The polls this time of year are written on beach sand with the tide coming in. They are totally worthless, an October surprise such as the capture of Bid Laden or some sort of military action vaults Obama's poll numbers and a GOP sweep becomes what will likely be a wash or slight gain if the historical trend holds. Conversely, a double dip recession, or some a continuing rise in unemployment and a unheard of will defeat Adler. Anyone who believes these summer polls is a nitwit.

And if the self-serving internal poll had any bad news, it would never been released. "505 likely November voters with a margin of error of approximately +/- 4.3 percentage points."

So there could easily be a swing of up to almost nine points altogether. And how do they define "likely voters"? Unless you are a voter like me (every election, every time, I'm golden) a likely voter is iffy. And that is an awfully small sample size. Well played, Mr. Adler. Nervous much?

1) There are lies, damn lies and statistics; and
2) The only poll that counts is the one in November.

OE

today the courier post broke the news that so called endorsed tea party candidate Pete DeStefano as been endorsed and signed off to run against Runyon by the democrats!

That is correct; DeStefano is a fraud that is a plant courtesy of the Adler thugs so he can try to take votes away from Runyon

Developing....../