EXCLUSIVE PNJ POLL: Lonegan with huge lead in CD3; 60% of GOPers Think Bridgegate has Impacted Christie's Future
By PolitickerNJ Staff | March 11th, 2014 - 3:04pm
| More

PolitickerNJ hired a national polling firm to survey primary-voting Republicans in the 3rd Congressional District, where three candidates hope to replace Republican Congressman Jon Runyan, whose retirement after only two terms shocked the political establishment.

According to the poll of 300 primary voters in CD3 by Advantage Research, Steve Lonegan holds a commanding lead over his two would-be rivals, with 41% of voters expressing support for the former Bogota mayor and 2013 US Senate candidate.

Toms River councilman Mo Hill is a distant second with 11% of Republican support and establishment favorite Tom MacArthur, the former mayor of Randolph, barely moves the needle, netting only 2% of Republican support.

It is clear that the Goliath vs. Goliath dynamic is playing out as Burlington County faces off against Ocean, but it's less clear how that will affect this race. Frontrunner Lonegan wins in both Burlington and Ocean, but his lead is meaningfully narrower in Ocean County, where favorite son Mo Hill notched 15% to Lonegan's 35%. Worth noting for the party bosses intent on recruiting someone so far from the district– MacArthur's hometown of Randolph is nearly 90 miles from Burlington, the symbolic heart of the district – is that MacArthur didn't pick up much support in Burlington. At 51 for Lonegan, 4 for Hill and 3 for MacArthur, whatever support Hill lost in the neighboring county clearly fell to Lonegan, not to BurlCo-supported MacArthur.

In its exclusive poll, PolitickerNJ also asked respondents, "Do you think "Bridgegate" has greatly, somewhat, or not really affected Governor Christie's chances of being a viable Presidential candidate." 21% of Republican voters in CD3 said the Governor's presumed presidential ambitions would be greatly affected, and while 39% called them somewhat affected' 32% concluded that the governor's presumed presidential ambitions have not been meaningfully affected.

Advantage Research conducted the poll by telephone on March 10. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

The Back Room

Christie: 'I'm the decider'

While describing to fellow Republicans a conversation he said he had with Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Gov. Chris Christie borrowed a self-attribution from his old pal George W. Bush.

Read More >

Wake-Up Call

Morning Digest: July 28th

  Winners and Losers: Week of July 21st Christopher Rodriguez Governor Chris Christie this week announced his selection of the CIA operative as New Jersey’s next Director of the Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness (OHSP). (Politicker Staff) http://www.politickernj.com/77941/winners-and-losers-week-july-21st     Torres saddles up with Fulop and Baraka for...


NJ Legislature must get behind statewide standard of responsible contracting

By Michael Capelli As a 30 year union carpenter, I learned first-hand how important it was to have the right tools for the job. Now as the Executive Secretary-Treasurer of the 30,000 men and women of the Northeast Regional Council of Carpenters I... Read More >


 The following letter was sent today to Republican state legislators, county chairs, state committee members, and New Hampshire... more »
(7-23-14) Rabner Opinion Keeps “Christie for President” Alive - Gov. Chris Christie’s fight to prevent same-sex marriage in New Jersey ended with Chief Justice Stuart Rabner.... more »
The Perry-Paul Debate is Healthy for the GOP – and for America  The foreign policy debate in the media between prospective GOP Presidential candidates Texas Governor Rick Perry and... more »
(Washington DC)-- Two recent votes on Capitol Hill suggest an overdue and radical departure from our nation's Draconian and costly War on Drugs.  It's a long-overdue discussion (and not just... more »

Quote of the Day

quote of the day

"A pain management surgeon, Roque said he estimates that the trial and initial loss of patients and other headaches may have personally cost him about $800,000. Ouch." - columnist Agustin Torres, the Political Insider

- The Jersey Journal


Given another chance, who would you choose to run the county RIGHT NOW?:


Visit the PolitickerNJ.com/resources page for links to the best collection of information on New Jersey state government.


  • Polls
  • The best blogs
  • Columnists
  • State election results
  • Assembly election results
  • Local party websites
  • And more.