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By Mike Proto | October 16th, 2012 - 4:14pm
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BOGOTA, NJ – President Barack Obama holds a 48.4-41.4 percent lead over Governor Mitt Romney in New Jersey, according to a Neighborhood Research survey of 783 screened likely voters completed between Wednesday and Sunday nights for Americans for Prosperity New Jersey.

Among definite voters, the President’s lead over Governor Romney narrows to 47.9-42.1, or just 5.8%.

The survey data showed that among all respondents, the President has his strongest numbers with those under 35 (67-21) while he leads by just 45-43 among those over 50.  President Obama is up by 50-39 with women and ties with men at 46-46. 

President Obama holds a solid 61-27 lead in New Jersey’s six Democratic-held Congressional Districts, but they have just 39 percent of the voters.  He loses by 39-52 to Governor Romney in the six Republican-held Congressional Districts.

Liberals support the President by 86-6 and moderates by 53-33 while conservatives back Romney by 82-11 and very conservative voters by 86-11.  Registered Democrats support Obama by 72-16 while Registered Republicans support Romney by 74-16.  Undeclared voters support Obama by a narrow 46-44 margin.

The proposal to borrow $750 million for higher education leads by just 38.6-36.7 and is in an essential tie among those definitely voting with 38.1 percent saying they will vote yes and 37.6 percent saying they will vote no.

The bond leads by 59-19 among those under 35, 42-36 with those 35-49, is tied 39-39 with voters 50-64 and loses by 33-40 with voters 65-74 and by 30-37 with voters over 75.

It leads by 48-32 in the six Democratic-held Congressional Districts while losing 35-40 in the six Republican-held seats.

The borrowing proposal leads by 57-16 with liberals and 41-38 with moderates while losing conservatives by 23-54.  Very conservative voters are against it by 15-63.  Registered Democrats back it by 50-25, registered Republicans oppose it by 23-55 while undeclareds, who tend to be younger, support it by 42-33.

Obama voters support it by 59-19 while Romney voters oppose it by a nearly identical 17-59.  Undecided and “someone else” voters support it by 38-30.  Those undecided on this question are backing President Obama by 44-41.

22 percent of voters under 65 are undecided, but that number increases to 27 percent among those 65-74 and 33 percent with voters over 75.

Men support the borrowing measure by 42-37 while women are split 37-37.  Women over 65 are heavily undecided on this question, opposing it by 28-33, but with 39 percent undecided.

AFP New Jersey State Director Steve Lonegan gave his analysis of the numbers.

“President Obama’s single-digit lead in New Jersey is surprisingly low and indicates that next-door Pennsylvania could be currently competitive.  It also shows that New Jersey could be ‘in play’ if Governor Romney surges in the final days or continues to gain momentum after subsequent debates.”

He noted, however, that the “big news” is that the proposal for the state to borrow seven hundred and fifty million dollars for public colleges and universities was in “deep trouble.”

“Generally speaking, bond issues are embattled when they are running below 50 percent support in polls.  This one is below 40 percent and virtually tied, well within the ‘margin of error’, among definite voters,” Lonegan said.  “The people supporting this bond issue know they are in trouble because New Jersey taxpayers have found out about the debt scam and are ready to send Trenton a powerful message: enough is enough.  Stop killing our state.”

Lonegan said he believes the numbers out of this survey showing a virtual dead heat over university polls showing support in the 60 percent plus range. 

“Anyone on the street can tell you taxpayers are fed up with spending and debt and I find it hard to believe even the pollsters themselves believe those numbers,” Lonegan said.  “If they were right, they wouldn’t be talking about spending $2.1 Million to get it passed.”

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Between October 10 and 14, Neighborhood Research completed 783 surveys of New Jersey registered voters who said their chances of voting were “definite” or “very likely.”

Calls were made by live operators from facilities in Franklin, New Jersey.  Bilingual English/Spanish callers called those with Hispanic last names and 35 percent of these interviews were in Spanish, making up 2 percent of all interviews.  The theoretical margin of error is +/- 3.5% in 95% of cases. 

41% of respondents were registered Democrats, 31% Republicans and 28% undeclareds.  African-Americans made up 11% of responses while Latino ethnics made up 6%.  Based on response rates, the pollster anticipates a slightly higher than average share of the vote to be African-American and a slightly lower share of the vote to be Latino than the registration lists would indicate.  The data was weighed to bring the male/female ratio to 46/54 from 41/59. 

Americans for Prosperity is a nonpartisan, public policy organization and does not endorse candidates for public office.  This poll was commissioned as a public service to provide citizens with information related to public policy.

Americans for Prosperity (AFP) is a nationwide organization of citizen-leaders committed to advancing every individual’s right to economic freedom and opportunity. AFP believes reducing the size and intrusiveness of government is the best way to promote individual productivity and prosperity for all Americans. AFP educates and engages citizens to support restraining state and federal government growth and returning government to its constitutional limits. AFP is more than 2 million activists strong, with activists in all 50 states.  AFP has 34 state chapters and affiliates. More than 85,000 Americans in all 50 states have made a financial contribution to AFP or AFP Foundation. For more information, visit www.americansforprosperity.org

Americans for Prosperity does not support or oppose candidates for public office.

###

Contact Info: 

Contact: Mike Proto, 201-487-8844/201-400-3666

Contact: Steve Lonegan, 201-487-8844/201-881-6682

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