TRENTON – The state Republican Party today released an internal memo detailing the history of sitting governors and their midterm won/loss record. Bottom line: since 1963, six seats gained is dwarfed by 84 losses.
“A Governor’s first mid-term election has not been (too) kind to any of New Jersey’s first-term chief executives over the last half-century,” stated the memo, which was authored by NJ GOP spokesman Rick Gorka. “Simply put, despite Governor Christie’s current strong job approval and image ratings, history paints a bleak picture for our Party’s chances to gain any legislative seats on Tuesday.”
Break-even results would be “buck(ing) the odds,” the memo said. “Seven of the last eight Governors have lost legislative seats in their first midterm election, and given the tough obstacles currently lined up against our Party, we do not expect this trend to change this year.”
Even though history favors Republican losses, the state redistricting process – counted as a win for the Democrats – put almost zero GOP lawmakers at risk, save sacrificial lamb Assemblyman Domenick DiCicco (R-4), of Franklin Township.
Here’s the stats from the NJ GOP:
Corzine (2007 midterm): Loss of 1 legislative seat
McGreevey (2003 midterm): Gain of 6 legislative seats
Whitman (1995 midterm): Loss of 2 legislative seats
Florio (1991 midterm): Loss of 21 legislative seats
Kean (1983 midterm): Loss of 3 legislative seats
Byrne (1975 midterm): Loss of 16 legislative seats
Cahill (1971 midterm): Loss of 26 legislative seats
Hughes (1963 midterm): Loss of 15 legislative seats
Total: 78 seats lost (15 Senate and 63 Assembly seats) – Average of 10 seats lost per election
Obama (2010 midterm): Loss of 69 legislative seats
Bush (2002 midterm): Gain of 9 legislative seats
Clinton (1994 midterm): Loss of 63 legislative seats
Reagan (1982 midterm): Loss of 25 legislative seats
Carter (1978 midterm): Loss of 18 legislative seats
Nixon (1970 midterm): Loss of 10 legislative seats
Johnson (1966 midterm): Loss of 51 legislative seats
Kennedy (1962 midterm): Loss of 1 legislative seat
Eisenhower (1954 midterm): Loss of 19 legislative seats
Truman (1946 midterm): Loss of 67 legislative seats
Total: 28 Senate seats and 286 House seats lost in 10 elections
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"When you're asked to cast a vote on a bill and it seems innocuous, and it's got a hidden land mine that perhaps only an expert would see, it would sort of behoove those experts to tell us in advance rather than make us look, shall we say, a little bit indecisive later on." - Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-25).- NJTV
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