By Timothy J. Carroll | October 31st, 2011 - 3:51pm
| More

TRENTON – The state Republican Party today released an internal memo detailing the history of sitting governors and their midterm won/loss record. Bottom line: since 1963, six seats gained is dwarfed by 84 losses.

“A Governor’s first mid-term election has not been (too) kind to any of New Jersey’s first-term chief executives over the last half-century,” stated the memo, which was authored by NJ GOP spokesman Rick Gorka. “Simply put, despite Governor Christie’s current strong job approval and image ratings, history paints a bleak picture for our Party’s chances to gain any legislative seats on Tuesday.”

Break-even results would be “buck(ing) the odds,” the memo said. “Seven of the last eight Governors have lost legislative seats in their first midterm election, and given the tough obstacles currently lined up against our Party, we do not expect this trend to change this year.”

Even though history favors Republican losses, the state redistricting process – counted as a win for the Democrats – put almost zero GOP lawmakers at risk, save sacrificial lamb Assemblyman Domenick DiCicco (R-4), of Franklin Township.

Here’s the stats from the NJ GOP:

State trends:

Corzine (2007 midterm): Loss of 1 legislative seat

McGreevey (2003 midterm): Gain of 6 legislative seats

Whitman (1995 midterm): Loss of 2 legislative seats

Florio (1991 midterm): Loss of 21 legislative seats

Kean (1983 midterm): Loss of 3 legislative seats

Byrne (1975 midterm): Loss of 16 legislative seats

Cahill (1971 midterm): Loss of 26 legislative seats

Hughes (1963 midterm): Loss of 15 legislative seats

Total: 78 seats lost (15 Senate and 63 Assembly seats) – Average of 10 seats lost per election

National trends:

Obama (2010 midterm): Loss of 69 legislative seats

Bush (2002 midterm): Gain of 9 legislative seats

Clinton (1994 midterm): Loss of 63 legislative seats

Reagan (1982 midterm): Loss of 25 legislative seats

Carter (1978 midterm): Loss of 18 legislative seats

Nixon (1970 midterm): Loss of 10 legislative seats

Johnson (1966 midterm): Loss of 51 legislative seats

Kennedy (1962 midterm): Loss of 1 legislative seat

Eisenhower (1954 midterm): Loss of 19 legislative seats

Truman (1946 midterm): Loss of 67 legislative seats

Total: 28 Senate seats and 286 House seats lost in 10 elections

The Back Room

Stung in NY, Astorino says Christie should think about stepping down as RGA chair

Dissed by Gov. Chris Christie, New York Republican Gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino said Christie should consider stepping down from his post as chairman of the Republican Governors Assocation.

Read More >

Wake-Up Call

Morning Digest: July 22nd

  Union County Sheriff Ralph Froehlich has died Union County today mourns the loss of the longest-serving sheriff in New Jersey history, who died last night at the age of 83. (Editor/PolitickerNJ) http://www.politickernj.com/77506/union-county-sheriff-ralph-froehlich-has-died     Cryan serving as acting Union County sheriff, poised to run in November ...

Op-Ed

Legislation needed to restore balance in election financing

By JEFF BRINDLE Much has been written about the magnitude of campaign spending by independent special interest groups.  But until now, there has been little discussion about the impact. During the 2012 Presidential and Congressional contests,... Read More >

Contributors

The Perry-Paul Debate is Healthy for the GOP – and for America  The foreign policy debate in the media between prospective GOP Presidential candidates Texas Governor Rick Perry and... more »
(7-16-14) Casinos in Jersey City, Not Sports Betting - Just as the US. Supreme Court was saying no to sports betting in New Jersey, a former Reebok chief executive... more »
(Washington DC)-- Two recent votes on Capitol Hill suggest an overdue and radical departure from our nation's Draconian and costly War on Drugs.  It's a long-overdue discussion (and not just... more »
New Jersey 2014 Primary Day Recap (6/4/14) - By the numbers. Worth the read for those interested in GOTV targeting and ballot position logistics.... more »

Quote of the Day

quote of the day

"As soon as you step into the lake on foot or in a boat, you're in the state's domain. I feel bad for the snake, and I hope it gets rescued before it dies when it gets cold. It didn't mean to get let out there. This snake should be one thing we can get together on and not worry about party affiliation. Unless the snake's a Democrat." - Republican Mount Arlington Mayor Arthur Ondish

- PolitickerNJ

Poll

Do you think Gov. Chris Christie's RGA travels benefit New Jersey?:

Blogroll

Visit the PolitickerNJ.com/resources page for links to the best collection of information on New Jersey state government.

 

  • Polls
  • The best blogs
  • Columnists
  • State election results
  • Assembly election results
  • Local party websites
  • And more.

PolitickerNJ.com/resources