Should Schumer get involved in the Indiana governor's race?

There has been a lot of buzz surrounding Barack Obama's joint appearance with U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh in his home state of Indiana today. The speculation that Bayh could be Obama's pick for vice president is all about the map. Bayh is the most-successful Democrat that the red state of Indiana has seen since New Deal-era Gov. Paul McNutt. Polls suggest that Indiana is a swing state for the first time in decades and Obama might believe that putting Bayh on the ticket can get him over the top.

But for U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the speculation around Bayh is all about the Senate. The idea of Democrats achieving a fillibuster-proof 60 seats in November's election is still pretty unlikely, but it cannot be dismissed either. For Democrats to reach 60 seats it means that Republicans like North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole or Oregon's Gordon Smith would have to lose their seats. It would also mean that Bayh would remain in the Senate or be replaced by a Democrat.

Complicating matters is that Indiana currently has a Republican governor, but he is up for re-election. Gov. Mitch Daniels had a rocky start to his freshman term, but polling suggests he is in control to defeat former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson, his Democratic opponent. If Bayh is picked, Schumer would have to take the Indiana governor's race just as seriously as he takes any other "leans Republican" race like Dole or Smith.

If Obama-Bayh win, Bayh would need wait to resign his Senate seat. Indiana law does not call for an immediate special election to fill the vacancy, nor does it demand that the governor appoint a senator from the same party as the previous incumbent. If Daniels wins re-election he can appoint himself or another Republican to a two-year term with a re-election up in 2010. If enough money comes in from Schumer and others in Washington that allows Thompson to overcome the 15 to 17 percentage point disadvantage she currently has in polling, then Thompson can appoint a Democrat.

(Among those she could consider are former Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, former U.S. Rep. Tim Roemer, former U.S. Rep. Lee Hamilton, or Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel.)

How this would play out is just a question of the calendar. Thompson would be sworn in on Jan. 12 and a day later Bayh could resign his Senate seat. Thompson could even have someone else appointed by Jan. 20, the day Bayh is sworn in as vice president, but she doesn't have to.

Bayh is very familiar with this situation. In 1988 he won his first term as governor. It was also the same year that George H.W. Bush won his first term to office with Indiana's Dan Quayle as his vice president. In other to keep the seat Republican, Quayle resigned his Senate on Dec. 13, allowing lame duck Republican Gov. Robert Orr to appoint then U.S. Rep. Dan Coats to the seat a full month before Bayh took office.

James W. Pindell is Politicker.com's managing editor.